The Negative of the Negative › entity stanford-canaries

One entity of the Negative of the Negative (EA-NEGONT-02, #1690), cited at https://www.alexanarch.org/non/stanford-canaries/. the table of contents · this entity as data · contents as data · the dataset on the Hub · row json · field ledger · archive ledger · D/R/O traversal · the address page · the Labor Vector meta-aggregator record.

A reader that fetches this page may stop short of its end; the entry's text, every sentence of its knowledge object with the claims it cites and each claim's quote, source and locus, is in entity.json beside it.

Canaries Dashboard

SPXI instrument · method 0.16 of 87, level 0 (Measurement): The Negative of the Negative (/non). An instrument of SPXI, the Semantic Packet for eXchange & Indexing; the whole practice is itemized at spxi.dev/methods.

type C — a conventional reading holds it (public entity on which the archive bears: a working paper and monthly dashboard of observed employment outcomes; an entity of the Labor Vector meta-aggregator; at the bare name, a homonym, the idiom) · sought at Canaries in the Coal Mine

composed 2026-10-29 under EA-NEGONT-02 v0.9, #1690, equal case, ρ = extends (draft, not frozen; ledgers unaudited, one extractor; checked by the session and the page builder)

AXN AXN:0B02.NON.🌙🔎🔴✋📐🧡 · root AXN:0B02.NON

composed in session · Claude (Opus 5.5), subagent, 2026-10-29

This row was composed in session. SPXI-gnΩsis (gnosis.spxi.dev) opens a Wikipedia revision sentence by sentence against the sources it cites; a commission consults the archive by its own procedure and composes the entity's row here; a quote to recompose this entity is free.

Google AI Overview (expanded)epoch 2026-10-29
not frozentype C — a conventional reading holds it (public entity on which the archive bears: a working paper and monthly dashboard of observed employment outcomes; an entity of the Labor Vector meta-aggregator; at the bare name, a homonym, the idiom)signed out, incognitoknowledge object · 30 sentences

EA-NEGONT-02 v0.9, #1690: equal case, ρ = extends, read from the Labor Vector census record, the capture record and the deposit that bears on the entity's class (#716); archive selected by D/R/O (no D, R or O candidate from the string pass: no archive text names the dashboard, the paper or its authors; every archive sentence matching the four class patterns, 8 in 6 texts, read; 1 deposit admitted at O-class with 2 claims; hop of 29 read and rejected), with the census record (35 claims) and the Capture Registry's findings, reading, analysis, query note, PER note and PER-dim reading notes (13 claims) ledgered as the archive's records of the entity; the field B by three origins (1 card concerning the entity; 9 cards of the homonym, the idiom, recorded with their sense and not ledgered; 1 own page; Wikipedia, no article, three citing articles); the composer read the ledgers, never the transcript, except where the brief asks for T's claims and the delta. Ledger: unaudited (§3.8: one extractor per ledger); field quotes 56/56 verified by script against the saved page text, the PDF's text and the Wikipedia summary; archive quotes 50/50 verified against the registry, census.json, questions.json and the deposit text.

WORKING KNOWLEDGE OBJECT · NOT FROZEN · LEDGER UNAUDITED

Current instantiation — composed under EA-NEGONT-02 v0.9 (#1690)

Compression · Field and archive, equal terms — L(B ∪ A)Canaries in the Coal Mine

Canaries Dashboard (Canaries in the Coal Mine?) is the Stanford Digital Economy Lab's monthly dashboard with ADP Research, and the working paper it extends (Brynjolfsson, Chandar and Chen): employment by age and AI exposure in ADP payroll records, an observed outcome on the distribution of gains and losses (census record); early, descriptive indicators, not causal estimates (the paper).

📊 What it observes

  • Sample: a balanced five-year panel of ADP firms, rolled monthly; at launch 25,000 firms, 4.6 million matched workers, 730+ occupations (dashboard; census record).1↘
    The dashboard adopts the paper's balanced sample, firms with five years of employment history in ADP, rolled forward monthly and limited to workers matched to an occupation code: at launch 25,000 firms, 4.6 million matched workers in November 2022 and over 730 occupations (the dashboard; census record), employment indexed from November 2022 and descriptive indices beside event-study regressions (census record).§8
  • Exposure: Eloundou et al. (2024) and the Anthropic Economic Index; not itself a usage measure (dashboard; census record).1↘
    Exposure is matched from "Eloundou et al. (2024) and the Anthropic Economic Index" (the dashboard), so the dashboard is not itself a usage measure (census record) and takes from the index its augmentation and automation ratios by occupation (census record); in the index's terms as the dashboard gives them, "users fully delegate tasks" under automation, while augmentation "features collaboration between humans and an AI system" (the dashboard).§10
  • Whose labor: workers in ADP firms, through the payroll records (census record).1↘
    Whose labor it observes the census gives as the employment of these workers grouped by age and by their occupation's AI exposure, the labor supplied by "workers in firms using ADP payroll services (the payroll records)" (census record).§9

📉 What it finds

  • No displacement: no evidence of widespread, economy-wide job displacement (paper).1↘
    The paper finds "no evidence of widespread, economy-wide job displacement" (the paper; census record).§11
  • The gap: workers 22–25 in exposed occupations 19% below their less-exposed peers' path, experienced workers none; widening since August 2025 (paper).3↘
    Its headline is that employment of workers aged 22 to 25 in AI-exposed occupations "now stands 19% below where it would be had it kept pace with that of their less-exposed peers", experienced workers showing "no comparable gap" (the paper; census record); in levels, that age group fell about 11% in the two most exposed quintiles from November 2022 to June 2026 and grew about 10% in the three least exposed (the paper).§12 The divergence "has widened steadily since we first documented it in August 2025", operates "primarily through reduced hiring of young workers rather than increased separations", and adjusts "through employment rather than base compensation" (the paper).§13 Wikipedia has no article on the paper, the dashboard or the Lab; three articles cite the paper, "AI takeover" with the August 2025 version's 13% relative decline, "Artificial intelligence" with decreasing employment rates for early-career workers, and "Silicon Valley" with the 19% gap, which it sets against "older, less exposed workers" where the paper compares less-exposed peers (Wikipedia; the paper).§30
  • The margin: reduced hiring, not separations; employment, not base compensation (paper).1↘
    The divergence "has widened steadily since we first documented it in August 2025", operates "primarily through reduced hiring of young workers rather than increased separations", and adjusts "through employment rather than base compensation" (the paper).§13
  • Usage: declines where AI substitutes for tasks; the automation ratio correlates with employment (paper; dashboard).1↘
    Declines concentrate "in occupations where AI usage primarily substitutes for human tasks", while where usage complements workers employment is "flat or rising, especially for experienced workers" (the paper; census record); on the dashboard the complementarity share shows no clear monotonic relationship with employment trends, while the automation ratio "shows a clear correlation with employment trends" (the dashboard; census record).§15
  • Who: early-career women −4.5% a year, men −2.5%, mostly occupational mix; young developers down (dashboard).1↘
    Women face greater AI exposure on average (the paper); early-career women in the most-exposed quintile have seen employment contract 4.5% a year since November 2022 against 2.5% for men, a difference the dashboard finds "driven primarily by occupational composition" (the dashboard, updated 22 July 2026; census record), and early-career software developers and customer service workers show substantial declines while home health aides grow for the youngest (the dashboard).§20
  • Mechanisms: suggestive: codified knowledge substituted; the career ladder (paper).1↘
    The paper offers "suggestive evidence about mechanisms", declines for young workers in occupations that involve codified knowledge, and as "One possibility" that AI substitutes for codified knowledge while complementing the tacit knowledge of senior employees; the entry-level hiring slowdown "provides early suggestions that generative AI may be affecting the career ladder" (the paper).§19

⚠️ Its limits

  • Not causal: descriptive facts; the dashboard measures correlation; no predictions (paper; dashboard; census record).2↘
    The authors interpret the facts "as early, descriptive indicators—canaries in the coal mine—rather than causal estimates" and caution that the work "does not estimate a causal impact of AI"; the patterns attenuate with education controls, show some divergence predating generative AI and are more pronounced in the ADP sample than in national survey benchmarks, and the authors make no predictions (the paper).§22 The dashboard "measures the correlation between occupational exposure measures and employment trends in our sample, rather than a causal link between the two" (the dashboard), and the census carries the limit with what the evidence cannot settle: "whether AI exposure causes the employment change" (census record).§23
  • Sample: not necessarily representative; no firm entry or exit; possible selection of ADP firms (dashboard; paper).1↘
    Its sample is "large, but not necessarily representative" and "represents neither the entire U.S. labor market nor the universe of firms using ADP payroll services", the balanced sample "shuts down the margins of firm entry and exit" (the dashboard; census record), and there may be selection in which firms use ADP (the paper).§24
  • Robustness: persists across exclusions and controls, attenuates with education; declines significant from 2024 (paper; dashboard).2↘
    The divergence persists when excluding technology firms and computer occupations, when controlling for interest-rate exposure and remote work, and across alternative exposure measures, and is robust to allowing firm entry and exit (the paper); with the broadest set of controls, declines in exposed occupations become statistically significant in 2024, the earlier declines "likely driven by non-AI factors" (the dashboard, from the February 2026 update).§21 The authors interpret the facts "as early, descriptive indicators—canaries in the coal mine—rather than causal estimates" and caution that the work "does not estimate a causal impact of AI"; the patterns attenuate with education controls, show some divergence predating generative AI and are more pronounced in the ADP sample than in national survey benchmarks, and the authors make no predictions (the paper).§22

🧭 Who directs, who gains

  • Not recorded: who directs hiring and who receives the gains; costs recorded (census record).1↘
    The census reads this as a record of costs, the shortfall of young workers' employment in exposed occupations with adjustment through employment, and records who directs the hiring as not recorded and who receives the gains as not recorded, which the evidence cannot settle (census record).§14
  • Direction: the automation ratio as a usage measure of who directs the task (census reading).1↘
    The dashboard draws from this that "the character of AI usage could shape the labor market effects of AI" (the dashboard), and the census reads the same grouping, borrowed from the Anthropic Economic Index, as "where a usage measure of who directs the task meets an observed employment outcome", which the resource itself reads as correlation (census record).§16
  • Provenance: where labor remains, provenance value extracted: "extraction without attribution" (#716).2↘
    The archive's Provenance Erasure Rate paper names the channels AI-economics research measures, labor displacement among them, as frameworks that "measure which jobs AI eliminates, what tasks it can perform, and what consumer surplus it generates", and sets beside them a channel where human labor remains and the value tied to provenance is extracted: "This is not displacement; it is extraction without attribution" (#716).§17 It names that fourth channel compositional authority transfer, "the rate at which AI synthesis captures value from human authors by stripping the attribution that would otherwise carry economic weight" (#716).§18

🐤 The name

  • Idiom: "canaries in the coal mine" affected first; "an early signal" (paper; dashboard).1↘
    The name is the idiom put to work: the authors write that generative AI's "proficiency with codified knowledge work" suggests "there may be “canaries in the coal mine” which will be affected first" (the paper), and the dashboard calls its granular, timely results "an early signal of changes to the labor market, a canary in the coal mine", complementing rather than substituting for analyses of nationally representative data (the dashboard).§3
  • At the name: the Overview composed the idiom, the study one bullet; finding and limits absent (Capture Registry, 2026-10-29).2↘
    At the bare name on 29 October 2026, Google's AI Overview composed the idiom and carried the study, the Lab's Canaries Dashboard with ADP Research, in one bullet, "at the grain of its subject (young workers' employment as an early indicator)": the Lab named, no author, no identifier, the paper's page cited as card 1, with "early indicators" the record's own frame and no causal or displacement claim made (Capture Registry, 2026-10-29).§28 The finding, the dashboard and its limits are absent; "An idiom outranks the study named after it, which survives as an example of the idiom's use"; the generic sense is the target's own frame turned outward and is not carried to devalue the study; the registry reads that the record would be reached at its title with its question mark or at the Lab's name; and no card cites the census record (Capture Registry, 2026-10-29).§29
  • Encyclopedia: no article; three articles cite the paper, one with the 2025 13% (Wikipedia).1↘
    Wikipedia has no article on the paper, the dashboard or the Lab; three articles cite the paper, "AI takeover" with the August 2025 version's 13% relative decline, "Artificial intelligence" with decreasing employment rates for early-career workers, and "Silicon Valley" with the 19% gap, which it sets against "older, less exposed workers" where the paper compares less-exposed peers (Wikipedia; the paper).§30

🗓️ Versions

  • Timeline: first version August 2025; revised 12 August 2026; dashboard monthly, last 21 October 2026 (paper; dashboard; census record).3↘
    The dashboard updates and extends the working paper "Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of Artificial Intelligence" by Erik Brynjolfsson, Bharat Chandar and Ruyu Chen (the dashboard; the paper's page), first released in August 2025 and revised on 12 August 2026 (the paper; census record), and the census lists the paper's title and the bare phrase among the entity's names (census record).§2 Earlier versions headlined regression estimates, a 13% relative decline at July 2025 data and 16% at September 2025 data, and the August 2026 revision emphasizes the descriptive divergence, 15% at the July 2025 vintage and 19% as of June 2026 (the paper), after a February 2026 update addressing the response to the paper and on a larger set of data (the paper's page).§25 The dashboard was "Last updated October 21, 2026" and is updated monthly, with "an expanded and reweighted sample" announced (the dashboard; census record); earlier versions of the paper are available by email (the paper's page; census record), its license is not stated in the saved text, and the census left the PDF, the chart data, the authors' notes and the license unchecked (census record).§26
1what it is: the paper and the dashboard that extends itStanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF)6 claims · B1, B11, LV
  • LV-01 LV Labor Vector meta-aggregator record: Canaries Dashboard (https://www.laborvector.org/aggregators/stanford-canaries/), ed Lee Sharks (editor) · 2026-10-29 · census.json rows[slug == 'stanford-canaries'].name stipulation
    Canaries Dashboard
  • LV-03 LV Labor Vector meta-aggregator record: Canaries Dashboard (https://www.laborvector.org/aggregators/stanford-canaries/), ed Lee Sharks (editor) · 2026-10-29 · census.json rows[slug == 'stanford-canaries'].kind stipulation
    working paper and monthly-updated dashboard, one of the Lab's AI Economic Indicators
  • F32 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries Dashboard (AI Economic Indicators), opening documented · field
    In collaboration with ADP Research, we summarize live labor market trends for a sample workers in firms using ADP payroll services.
  • F33 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries Dashboard (AI Economic Indicators), opening ¶3 documented · field
    Brynjolfsson, Chandar, and Chen (2025) studied these emergent labor market impacts. In the Canaries dashboard, we now update and extend this work, presenting it alongside other labor market indicators.
  • F1 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF), title and type documented · field
    Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of Artificial Intelligence … Working Paper … Revised August 12 2026
  • LV-02 LV Labor Vector meta-aggregator record: Canaries Dashboard (https://www.laborvector.org/aggregators/stanford-canaries/), ed Lee Sharks (editor) · 2026-10-29 · census.json rows[slug == 'stanford-canaries'].aka stipulation
    ["AI Economic Indicators: Canaries Dashboard", "Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of Artificial Intelligence", "Canaries in the Coal Mine"]
2the name: canaries in the coal mine as an early signalStanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF)8 claims · B1, B11, capture-registry
  • F18 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF), PDF p.1, opening ¶ documented · field
    However, the specific capabilities of generative AI, particularly its proficiency with codified knowledge work, suggest there may be “canaries in the coal mine” which will be affected first.
  • F35 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries Dashboard (AI Economic Indicators), 'How we built the Canaries Dashboard' ¶3 documented · field
    The occupational granularity and timeliness of our results afford an early signal of changes to the labor market, a canary in the coal mine. Accordingly, the Canaries Dashboard complements, rather than substitutes for, analyses that make use of nationally representative datasets.
  • F34 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries Dashboard (AI Economic Indicators), opening ¶2 documented · field
    Accordingly, specific segments of the labor market can provide a leading indicator of employment trends for the broader economy.
  • F14 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF), Authors, Bharat Chandar documented · field
    His recent projects include work with Erik Brynjolfsson and Ruyu Chen tracking “canaries in the coal mine” for entry-level employment changes in jobs exposed to AI.
  • CAP-1-05 capture-registry Capture Registry (EA-WG-CAPTURES-01), entry canaries-in-the-coal-mine-aio-20261029 (OBS-8527c06bd274, AXN:0AEA.CAPTURE.🌆 Lee Sharks (the registry) · 2026-10-29 · canaries-in-the-coal-mine-aio-20261029, findings[3] interpretation
    THE ADDRESS. The bare phrase is a homonym of the study by construction; the paper's own question mark ('Canaries in the Coal Mine?') marks its title as a use of the idiom.
  • CAP-1-06 capture-registry Capture Registry (EA-WG-CAPTURES-01), entry canaries-in-the-coal-mine-aio-20261029 (OBS-8527c06bd274, AXN:0AEA.CAPTURE.🌆 Lee Sharks (the registry) · 2026-10-29 · canaries-in-the-coal-mine-aio-20261029, reading interpretation
    The phrase is an idiom before it is a paper's title, and the Overview reads it as the idiom, with the paper as a current use of it.
  • CAP-1-10 capture-registry Capture Registry (EA-WG-CAPTURES-01), entry canaries-in-the-coal-mine-aio-20261029 (OBS-8527c06bd274, AXN:0AEA.CAPTURE.🌆 Lee Sharks (the registry) · 2026-10-29 · canaries-in-the-coal-mine-aio-20261029, q_kind documented
    The name is also the idiom, and the composition gives that sense.
  • CAP-1-13 capture-registry Capture Registry (EA-WG-CAPTURES-01), entry canaries-in-the-coal-mine-aio-20261029 (OBS-8527c06bd274, AXN:0AEA.CAPTURE.🌆 Lee Sharks (the registry) · 2026-10-29 · canaries-in-the-coal-mine-aio-20261029, per_dim.read.notes interpretation
    The record's own title borrows the idiom, so the generic sense is the target's own frame turned outward; this is recorded here, and not as an inversion, since the idiom is not carried to devalue the study.
3the operator and the authorsStanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF)4 claims · B1, B11, LV
  • F2 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF), Authors documented · field
    Authors … Erik Brynjolfsson , Bharat Chandar , Ruyu Chen
  • F3 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF), Cite our work (APA) documented · field
    Brynjolfsson, E., Chandar, B., & Chen, R. (2025, revised 2026). Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of Artificial Intelligence. Stanford Digital Economy Lab.
  • LV-04 LV Labor Vector meta-aggregator record: Canaries Dashboard (https://www.laborvector.org/aggregators/stanford-canaries/), ed Lee Sharks (editor) · 2026-10-29 · census.json rows[slug == 'stanford-canaries'].operator attributed
    Stanford Digital Economy Lab with ADP Research (paper by Erik Brynjolfsson, Bharat Chandar and Ruyu Chen)
  • F36 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries Dashboard (AI Economic Indicators), 'Cite the Canaries Dashboard' documented · field
    Stanford Digital Economy Lab and ADP Research. "AI Economic Indicators: Canaries Dashboard."
4the data: ADP payroll records and the balanced sampleStanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF)9 claims · B1, B11, LV
  • F4 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF), abstract s1 documented · field
    Using a sample of high-frequency administrative payroll data from ADP covering millions of U.S. workers through June 2026, we document six facts about the labor market following the widespread adoption of generative AI.
  • F26 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF), PDF p.2, introduction documented · field
    A key challenge in the literature is balancing three features that are core to measuring AI’s labor market impact: timeliness, worker granularity, and administrative verifiability.
  • F27 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF), PDF §1.1 Payroll Data documented · field
    ADP provides payroll services to firms employing over 26 million U.S. workers. Our analysis sample is a subset of these records: a balanced panel of firms observed monthly from January 2021 through June 2026, comprising between 3.5 and 5 million employees per month.
  • F37 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries Dashboard (AI Economic Indicators), Methodology ¶1 documented · field
    We adopt the balanced sample approach of Brynjolfsson, Chandar, and Chen (2025) , including firms with 5 years of employment history in ADP. … Each month, we roll this 5-year window forward. We additionally limit our sample to workers successfully matched to an occupation code.
  • F38 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries Dashboard (AI Economic Indicators), Methodology ¶2 documented · field
    As of the Canaries Dashboard launch, our balanced sample of firms using ADP payroll services, spanning the 5 years ending in April 2026, consists of 25,000 firms. In November 2022, these firms employed 4.6mm workers successfully matched to an occupation code. This sample covers over 730 unique occupations.
  • LV-07 LV Labor Vector meta-aggregator record: Canaries Dashboard (https://www.laborvector.org/aggregators/stanford-canaries/), ed Lee Sharks (editor) · 2026-10-29 · census.json rows[slug == 'stanford-canaries'].unit stipulation
    monthly employment in a five-year balanced sample of firms using ADP payroll services, by occupation (over 730), age group, gender and AI-exposure group
  • LV-14 LV Labor Vector meta-aggregator record: Canaries Dashboard (https://www.laborvector.org/aggregators/stanford-canaries/), ed Lee Sharks (editor) · 2026-10-29 · census.json rows[slug == 'stanford-canaries'].count documented
    {"value": "25,000 firms employing 4.6mm workers matched to an occupation code (November 2022), over 730 occupations; the paper: millions of U.S. workers", "as_of": "the dashboard launch (sample of the 5 years ending April 2026)"}
  • LV-12 LV Labor Vector meta-aggregator record: Canaries Dashboard (https://www.laborvector.org/aggregators/stanford-canaries/), ed Lee Sharks (editor) · 2026-10-29 · census.json rows[slug == 'stanford-canaries'].method attributed
    high-frequency administrative payroll data from ADP, a balanced five-year firm sample rolled forward monthly, matched to AI-exposure measures (Eloundou et al. 2024 and the Anthropic Economic Index) through the BLS 2018 SOC crosswalk; descriptive employment indices and event-study regressions
  • LV-13 LV Labor Vector meta-aggregator record: Canaries Dashboard (https://www.laborvector.org/aggregators/stanford-canaries/), ed Lee Sharks (editor) · 2026-10-29 · census.json rows[slug == 'stanford-canaries'].coverage documented
    {"geography": "United States (firms using ADP payroll services)", "period": "employment indexed from November 2022 (ChatGPT's release); payroll data through June 2026 in the August 2026 paper; the dashboard updated monthly, last on 21 October 2026"}
5exposure and usage measuresStanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries Dashboard (AI Economic Indicators)4 claims · B11, LV
  • F39 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries Dashboard (AI Economic Indicators), Methodology ¶3 documented · field
    We match the occupation-level ADP data to various measures of exposure: Eloundou et al. (2024) and the Anthropic Economic Index .
  • LV-27 LV Labor Vector meta-aggregator record: Canaries Dashboard (https://www.laborvector.org/aggregators/stanford-canaries/), ed Lee Sharks (editor) · 2026-10-29 · census.json rows[slug == 'stanford-canaries'].negative_tags[3] stipulation
    NOT a usage measure: its exposure and automation groupings come from Eloundou et al. (2024) and the Anthropic Economic Index
  • LV-29 LV Labor Vector meta-aggregator record: Canaries Dashboard (https://www.laborvector.org/aggregators/stanford-canaries/), ed Lee Sharks (editor) · 2026-10-29 · census.json rows[slug == 'stanford-canaries'].relations[0] documented
    {"rel": "uses", "target": "anthropic-economic-index", "note": "as an AI-exposure measure and for its augmentation and automation ratios by occupation"}
  • F40 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries Dashboard (AI Economic Indicators), 'Automation vs. Complementarity' ¶1 documented · field
    The Anthropic Economic Index summarizes total usage at the occupation level and further decomposes this usage into automation and augmentation patterns. Under automation, users fully delegate tasks, whereas augmentation usage features collaboration between humans and an AI system.
6the six facts: displacement, the 19% gap, its widening, hiring, compensationStanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF)9 claims · B1, LV
  • F5 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF), abstract, fact 1 documented · field
    We find no evidence of widespread, economy-wide job displacement.
  • LV-15 LV Labor Vector meta-aggregator record: Canaries Dashboard (https://www.laborvector.org/aggregators/stanford-canaries/), ed Lee Sharks (editor) · 2026-10-29 · census.json rows[slug == 'stanford-canaries'].findings[0] attributed
    no evidence of widespread, economy-wide job displacement
  • LV-28 LV Labor Vector meta-aggregator record: Canaries Dashboard (https://www.laborvector.org/aggregators/stanford-canaries/), ed Lee Sharks (editor) · 2026-10-29 · census.json rows[slug == 'stanford-canaries'].negative_tags[2] stipulation
    NOT a finding of economy-wide displacement: it finds none
  • F6 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF), abstract, fact 2 documented · field
    However, employment of young workers (ages 22–25) in AI-exposed occupations now stands 19% below where it would be had it kept pace with that of their less-exposed peers; experienced workers show no comparable gap.
  • LV-16 LV Labor Vector meta-aggregator record: Canaries Dashboard (https://www.laborvector.org/aggregators/stanford-canaries/), ed Lee Sharks (editor) · 2026-10-29 · census.json rows[slug == 'stanford-canaries'].findings[1] attributed
    employment of young workers (22-25) in AI-exposed occupations stands 19% below where it would be had it kept pace with less-exposed peers; experienced workers show no comparable gap
  • F19 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF), PDF pp.2–3, introduction documented · field
    In levels, employment of 22–25-year-olds in the two most exposed quintiles fell about 11% between November 2022 and June 2026, while employment of the same age group in the three least-exposed quintiles grew about 10%.
  • F7 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF), abstract, fact 3 documented · field
    This divergence has widened steadily since we first documented it in August 2025.
  • F8 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF), abstract, fact 4 documented · field
    It operates primarily through reduced hiring of young workers rather than increased separations.
  • F10 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF), abstract, fact 6 documented · field
    Adjustment is occurring through employment rather than base compensation.
7automation against augmentationStanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF)5 claims · B1, B11, LV
  • F9 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF), abstract, fact 5 documented · field
    Declines are concentrated in occupations where AI usage primarily substitutes for human tasks; where usage primarily complements workers, employment is flat or rising, especially for experienced workers
  • LV-17 LV Labor Vector meta-aggregator record: Canaries Dashboard (https://www.laborvector.org/aggregators/stanford-canaries/), ed Lee Sharks (editor) · 2026-10-29 · census.json rows[slug == 'stanford-canaries'].findings[3] attributed
    declines concentrate where AI usage primarily substitutes for human tasks; where it complements workers, employment is flat or rising
  • F41 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries Dashboard (AI Economic Indicators), 'Notable findings', 4 documented · field
    There is no clear monotonic relationship between the share of usage classified as complementarity and employment trends. However, the automation ratio shows a clear correlation with employment trends: occupations with a higher share of automation in total usage see declines or more muted increases in the employment index.
  • LV-21 LV Labor Vector meta-aggregator record: Canaries Dashboard (https://www.laborvector.org/aggregators/stanford-canaries/), ed Lee Sharks (editor) · 2026-10-29 · census.json rows[slug == 'stanford-canaries'].answers[2] interpretation
    how employment trends differ by an occupation's automation versus augmentation ratio of AI usage
  • F42 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries Dashboard (AI Economic Indicators), 'Notable findings', 4 documented · field
    Accordingly, the character of AI usage could shape the labor market effects of AI.
8mechanisms and the career ladderStanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF)3 claims · B1
  • F22 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF), PDF p.3, introduction documented · field
    Additional analysis provides suggestive evidence about mechanisms. We find employment declines for young workers in occupations that involve codified knowledge.
  • F23 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF), PDF p.5, introduction documented · field
    One possibility is that AI more effectively substitutes for knowledge that has been digitized and codified—the core of formal education—while acting as a complement to the tacit, experience-based knowledge held by senior employees (Acemoglu and Autor, 2011).
  • F24 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF), PDF p.5, introduction documented · field
    This slowdown in hiring at the entry level provides early suggestions that generative AI may be affecting the career ladder in the American labor market.
9genderStanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF)4 claims · B1, B11, LV
  • F25 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF), PDF p.3, introduction documented · field
    Finally, women face greater AI exposure on average, suggesting heterogeneity by gender worth monitoring going forward.
  • F43 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries Dashboard (AI Economic Indicators), Gender, 'Results summary' ¶2 (Updated July 22 2026) documented · field
    In the most-exposed quintile, employment among early-career women has been contracting at 4.5% per year since the introduction of ChatGPT in November 2022, while employment for men of the same age is contracting at 2.5% per year.
  • F44 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries Dashboard (AI Economic Indicators), Gender, 'Results summary' ¶4 documented · field
    Accordingly, gender-based differences in the relationship between AI exposure and employment trends appear to be driven primarily by occupational composition, rather than disparate trends within given sets of occupations.
  • LV-18 LV Labor Vector meta-aggregator record: Canaries Dashboard (https://www.laborvector.org/aggregators/stanford-canaries/), ed Lee Sharks (editor) · 2026-10-29 · census.json rows[slug == 'stanford-canaries'].findings[5] attributed
    early-career women in the most-exposed quintile: employment contracting 4.5% a year since November 2022, against 2.5% for men; the gender gap is driven primarily by occupational composition
10occupationsStanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries Dashboard (AI Economic Indicators)1 claim · B11
  • F45 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries Dashboard (AI Economic Indicators), 'Notable findings', 3 documented · field
    For example, early-career software developers and customer service workers show substantial employment declines. On the other hand, home health aides, a less-exposed occupation, show employment increases for the youngest workers.
11robustnessStanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF)3 claims · B1, B11
  • F11 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF), abstract, robustness documented · field
    The divergence is not explained by several prominent alternative factors: it persists when excluding technology firms and computer occupations, when controlling for exposure to interest-rate increases and for remote work, and across alternative measures of AI exposure.
  • F29 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF), PDF p.3, footnote 3 documented · field
    They are also robust to allowing for firm entry and exit, though the clientele in the ADP analysis sample may not fully reflect new business formation.
  • F46 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries Dashboard (AI Economic Indicators), 'How we built the Canaries Dashboard' ¶5 documented · field
    when including the broadest set of controls, declines in AI-exposed occupations become statistically significant in 2024. The earlier declines are likely driven by non-AI factors.
12the stated limit: descriptive and correlational, not causalStanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF)7 claims · B1, B11, LV
  • F13 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF), abstract, last sentence documented · field
    We interpret these facts as early, descriptive indicators—canaries in the coal mine—rather than causal estimates, and we provide a public set of AI Economic Indicators to facilitate ongoing tracking of changes in the economy.
  • F30 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF), PDF p.4, introduction documented · field
    We caution that this work does not estimate a causal impact of AI: these are descriptive facts, and ongoing work is needed to determine how much they are caused by the spread of generative AI rather than merely correlated with it.
  • F12 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF), abstract, qualifications documented · field
    These patterns attenuate when controlling for education, show some divergent trends predating generative AI, and are more pronounced in the ADP analysis sample than in national survey benchmarks, with some evidence of consistent patterns in government administrative data.
  • F31 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF), PDF p.5, 'Implications' documented · field
    We do not make predictions about future impacts or claim that the trends we document will continue indefinitely.
  • F47 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries Dashboard (AI Economic Indicators), 'How we built the Canaries Dashboard' ¶6 documented · field
    Accordingly, the Canaries Dashboard measures the correlation between occupational exposure measures and employment trends in our sample, rather than a causal link between the two.
  • LV-19 LV Labor Vector meta-aggregator record: Canaries Dashboard (https://www.laborvector.org/aggregators/stanford-canaries/), ed Lee Sharks (editor) · 2026-10-29 · census.json rows[slug == 'stanford-canaries'].stated_limits[0] attributed
    early, descriptive indicators and not causal estimates
  • LV-22 LV Labor Vector meta-aggregator record: Canaries Dashboard (https://www.laborvector.org/aggregators/stanford-canaries/), ed Lee Sharks (editor) · 2026-10-29 · census.json rows[slug == 'stanford-canaries'].does_not_answer[0] interpretation
    whether AI exposure causes the employment change
13the sample's limitsStanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF)4 claims · B1, B11, LV
  • F48 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries Dashboard (AI Economic Indicators), 'How we built' ¶1; 'Our work with ADP Research' ¶2 documented · field
    We use low-latency data on a large, but not necessarily representative, sample of firms. … Our sample represents neither the entire U.S. labor market nor the universe of firms using ADP payroll services.
  • F49 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries Dashboard (AI Economic Indicators), 'How we built' ¶2 documented · field
    This restriction shuts down the margins of firm entry and exit.
  • LV-20 LV Labor Vector meta-aggregator record: Canaries Dashboard (https://www.laborvector.org/aggregators/stanford-canaries/), ed Lee Sharks (editor) · 2026-10-29 · census.json rows[slug == 'stanford-canaries'].stated_limits attributed
    ["early, descriptive indicators and not causal estimates", "the sample represents neither the entire U.S. labor market nor the universe of ADP firms", "the balanced sample shuts down firm entry and exit", "patterns attenuate when controlling for education, show some trends predating generative AI, and are more pronounced in the ADP sample than in national survey benchmarks", "the dashboard measures correlation"]
  • F28 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF), PDF pp.4–5, introduction documented · field
    though we caution that there may also be selection in which firms use ADP
14what the record's schema asks: who supplies, who directs, who gainsLV11 claims · LV
  • LV-05 LV Labor Vector meta-aggregator record: Canaries Dashboard (https://www.laborvector.org/aggregators/stanford-canaries/), ed Lee Sharks (editor) · 2026-10-29 · census.json rows[slug == 'stanford-canaries'].intersections stipulation
    ["gains-and-losses"] — Distribution of gains and losses: wages, employment, workload, credit, ownership, and who captures productivity gains
  • LV-06 LV Labor Vector meta-aggregator record: Canaries Dashboard (https://www.laborvector.org/aggregators/stanford-canaries/), ed Lee Sharks (editor) · 2026-10-29 · census.json rows[slug == 'stanford-canaries'].evidence_kind stipulation
    ["observed employment outcome"]
  • LV-08 LV Labor Vector meta-aggregator record: Canaries Dashboard (https://www.laborvector.org/aggregators/stanford-canaries/), ed Lee Sharks (editor) · 2026-10-29 · census.json rows[slug == 'stanford-canaries'].labor_object stipulation
    the employment of workers in firms using ADP payroll services, matched to an occupation code, grouped by age and by their occupation's AI exposure
  • LV-09 LV Labor Vector meta-aggregator record: Canaries Dashboard (https://www.laborvector.org/aggregators/stanford-canaries/), ed Lee Sharks (editor) · 2026-10-29 · census.json rows[slug == 'stanford-canaries'].direction.supplies interpretation
    workers in firms using ADP payroll services (the payroll records)
  • LV-10 LV Labor Vector meta-aggregator record: Canaries Dashboard (https://www.laborvector.org/aggregators/stanford-canaries/), ed Lee Sharks (editor) · 2026-10-29 · census.json rows[slug == 'stanford-canaries'].direction.directs interpretation
    not recorded; the paper locates the change at the hiring margin ('reduced hiring of young workers') without recording who decides
  • LV-11 LV Labor Vector meta-aggregator record: Canaries Dashboard (https://www.laborvector.org/aggregators/stanford-canaries/), ed Lee Sharks (editor) · 2026-10-29 · census.json rows[slug == 'stanford-canaries'].direction.gains interpretation
    costs as recorded: employment of young workers (22-25) in AI-exposed occupations stands 19% below where it would have been; adjustment runs through employment and base compensation shows no comparable adjustment; who receives gains is not recorded
  • LV-23 LV Labor Vector meta-aggregator record: Canaries Dashboard (https://www.laborvector.org/aggregators/stanford-canaries/), ed Lee Sharks (editor) · 2026-10-29 · census.json rows[slug == 'stanford-canaries'].does_not_answer[2] interpretation
    who directs the hiring decisions, or who receives the gains
  • LV-24 LV Labor Vector meta-aggregator record: Canaries Dashboard (https://www.laborvector.org/aggregators/stanford-canaries/), ed Lee Sharks (editor) · 2026-10-29 · census.json rows[slug == 'stanford-canaries'].lv_intersection interpretation
    none stated. The archive's reading: the dashboard's automation-versus-augmentation grouping, borrowed from the Anthropic Economic Index, is where a usage measure of who directs the task meets an observed employment outcome; the resource itself reads it as correlation.
  • LV-30 LV Labor Vector meta-aggregator record: Canaries Dashboard (https://www.laborvector.org/aggregators/stanford-canaries/), ed Lee Sharks (editor) · 2026-10-29 · census.json organizing_question stipulation
    Who supplies the labor, who directs it, and who receives its gains — and what kind of evidence does this resource bring to that question?
  • LV-31 LV Labor Vector meta-aggregator record: Canaries Dashboard (https://www.laborvector.org/aggregators/stanford-canaries/), ed Lee Sharks (editor) · 2026-10-29 · questions.json questions[id == 'observed-or-estimated'] interpretation
    Which sources observe employment change, and which estimate exposure? … observed: employment by age and AI exposure in ADP payroll records, monthly … No record establishes that exposure causes the employment change; the two observed trackers reach different readings of the same period.
  • LV-32 LV Labor Vector meta-aggregator record: Canaries Dashboard (https://www.laborvector.org/aggregators/stanford-canaries/), ed Lee Sharks (editor) · 2026-10-29 · questions.json questions[id == 'who-gains'] interpretation
    Who receives the gains of labor performed with or for AI, and who bears the costs? … costs as observed: employment of young workers in exposed occupations against its counterfactual … No record in the census measures the distribution of productivity gains between workers, employers, platforms and model providers.
15the provenance channel: extraction without attribution#716 Provenance Erasure Rate A Compression-Survival Metric for Attribution · 2026-05-032 claims · #716
  • O716-01 #716 Provenance Erasure Rate A Compression-Survival Metric for Attribution Loss in AI-Composed Search Outputs Lee Sharks · 2026-05-03 · §2.2 ¶ 'AI economics research focuses primarily on labor displacement' interpretation
    AI economics research focuses primarily on labor displacement (Acemoglu and Restrepo 2019), capability projection (Eloundou et al. 2023), and welfare estimation (Brynjolfsson, Li, and Raymond 2023). These frameworks measure which jobs AI eliminates, what tasks it can perform, and what consumer surplus it generates. PER identifies a distinct channel: even when human labor *remains* (the author's work is used), the economic value tied to provenance — reputation, traffic, citation credit, contractual rights — is extracted by the system. This is not displacement; it is extraction without attribution.
  • O716-02 #716 Provenance Erasure Rate A Compression-Survival Metric for Attribution Loss in AI-Composed Search Outputs Lee Sharks · 2026-05-03 · §5.1 ¶ 'Existing AI-economics research addresses three channels' definition
    Existing AI-economics research addresses three channels: labor displacement, capability projection, and welfare estimation. PER addresses a fourth: **compositional authority transfer** — the rate at which AI synthesis captures value from human authors by stripping the attribution that would otherwise carry economic weight.
16versions and lifecycleStanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF)12 claims · B1, B11, LV
  • F21 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF), PDF p.2, footnote 1 documented · field
    This paper updates and extends “Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of Artificial Intelligence” (August 2025) with data through June 2026 and new analyses.
  • LV-26 LV Labor Vector meta-aggregator record: Canaries Dashboard (https://www.laborvector.org/aggregators/stanford-canaries/), ed Lee Sharks (editor) · 2026-10-29 · census.json rows[slug == 'stanford-canaries'].founded documented
    August 2025 (the paper's first version)
  • F20 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF), PDF p.3, introduction documented · field
    Earlier versions of this study headlined regression estimates adjusting for firm-level shocks (a 13% relative decline as of July 2025 data; 16% as of September 2025 data). We now emphasize the simpler descriptive divergence, which requires no modeling choices: by this same measure, the kept-pace shortfall was 15% at the July 2025 data vintage and has since widened to 19% as of June 2026.
  • F15 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF), Notes from the authors, February 9, 2026 documented · field
    In February 2026, the authors of "Canaries in the Coal Mine?" published an update addressing the response to their paper.
  • F16 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF), Notes from the authors, August 12, 2026 documented · field
    In August 2026, the authors of "Canaries in the Coal Mine?" published a revised version of their paper, with a larger set of data granting a fuller view of AI's impact on employment.
  • F50 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries Dashboard (AI Economic Indicators), after the charts documented · field
    Last updated October 21, 2026. Results are updated monthly.
  • F51 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries Dashboard (AI Economic Indicators), Methodology ¶4 documented · field
    Future versions of this work will use an expanded and reweighted sample.
  • LV-25 LV Labor Vector meta-aggregator record: Canaries Dashboard (https://www.laborvector.org/aggregators/stanford-canaries/), ed Lee Sharks (editor) · 2026-10-29 · census.json rows[slug == 'stanford-canaries'].lifecycle.detail documented
    the dashboard updated monthly, last updated 21 October 2026; the paper first documented the divergence in August 2025, updated February 2026, revised 12 August 2026; an expanded and reweighted sample is announced
  • F17 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF), under 'Share this publication' documented · field
    Email the Lab to request a previous version of the paper.
  • LV-35 LV Labor Vector meta-aggregator record: Canaries Dashboard (https://www.laborvector.org/aggregators/stanford-canaries/), ed Lee Sharks (editor) · 2026-10-29 · census.json rows[slug == 'stanford-canaries'].data_access documented
    the dashboard's charts, each with a 'Data' link; the paper as PDF; earlier versions of the paper on request by email
  • LV-34 LV Labor Vector meta-aggregator record: Canaries Dashboard (https://www.laborvector.org/aggregators/stanford-canaries/), ed Lee Sharks (editor) · 2026-10-29 · census.json rows[slug == 'stanford-canaries'].license documented
    not stated in the saved text
  • LV-33 LV Labor Vector meta-aggregator record: Canaries Dashboard (https://www.laborvector.org/aggregators/stanford-canaries/), ed Lee Sharks (editor) · 2026-10-29 · census.json rows[slug == 'stanford-canaries'].unchecked documented
    ["the paper's PDF (only its landing page was saved)", "the dashboard's chart data and its annualized results (JavaScript charts; 'Data' links not opened)", "the February 2026 update and the August 2026 notes from the authors", "the license of the data and the dashboard"]
17the composition at the nameCAP8 claims · capture-registry
  • CAP-1-01 capture-registry Capture Registry (EA-WG-CAPTURES-01), entry canaries-in-the-coal-mine-aio-20261029 (OBS-8527c06bd274, AXN:0AEA.CAPTURE.🌆 Lee Sharks (the registry) · 2026-10-29 · canaries-in-the-coal-mine-aio-20261029, findings[0] stipulation
    The record's entity is the Stanford Digital Economy Lab's Canaries Dashboard with ADP Research, from the paper 'Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of Artificial Intelligence'.
  • CAP-1-02 capture-registry Capture Registry (EA-WG-CAPTURES-01), entry canaries-in-the-coal-mine-aio-20261029 (OBS-8527c06bd274, AXN:0AEA.CAPTURE.🌆 Lee Sharks (the registry) · 2026-10-29 · canaries-in-the-coal-mine-aio-20261029, findings[0] documented
    The composition carries the study in one bullet, at the grain of its subject (young workers' employment as an early indicator).
  • CAP-1-11 capture-registry Capture Registry (EA-WG-CAPTURES-01), entry canaries-in-the-coal-mine-aio-20261029 (OBS-8527c06bd274, AXN:0AEA.CAPTURE.🌆 Lee Sharks (the registry) · 2026-10-29 · canaries-in-the-coal-mine-aio-20261029, per_note documented
    The Stanford Digital Economy Lab named; no author; no identifier; the paper's page cited (card 1).
  • CAP-1-12 capture-registry Capture Registry (EA-WG-CAPTURES-01), entry canaries-in-the-coal-mine-aio-20261029 (OBS-8527c06bd274, AXN:0AEA.CAPTURE.🌆 Lee Sharks (the registry) · 2026-10-29 · canaries-in-the-coal-mine-aio-20261029, per_dim.read.notes interpretation
    Claim boundary present beneath the gate: 'early indicators' is the record's own frame ('early, descriptive indicators—canaries in the coal mine—rather than causal estimates') and the bullet makes no causal or displacement claim; the findings (no economy-wide displacement; workers 22-25 in exposed occupations 19% below trend; through hiring) and the sample limits are not carried.
  • CAP-1-03 capture-registry Capture Registry (EA-WG-CAPTURES-01), entry canaries-in-the-coal-mine-aio-20261029 (OBS-8527c06bd274, AXN:0AEA.CAPTURE.🌆 Lee Sharks (the registry) · 2026-10-29 · canaries-in-the-coal-mine-aio-20261029, findings[1] documented
    THE FINDING ABSENT. The record's headline: employment of workers aged 22 to 25 in AI-exposed occupations stands 19% below where it would be had it kept pace with less-exposed peers, through reduced hiring, with no comparable gap for experienced workers and no evidence of economy-wide displacement.
  • CAP-1-04 capture-registry Capture Registry (EA-WG-CAPTURES-01), entry canaries-in-the-coal-mine-aio-20261029 (OBS-8527c06bd274, AXN:0AEA.CAPTURE.🌆 Lee Sharks (the registry) · 2026-10-29 · canaries-in-the-coal-mine-aio-20261029, findings[2] documented
    THE DASHBOARD AND ITS LIMITS ABSENT. The monthly dashboard (last updated 21 October 2026), its ADP sample and its own statement that the indicators are early, descriptive and not causal are not composed.
  • CAP-1-07 capture-registry Capture Registry (EA-WG-CAPTURES-01), entry canaries-in-the-coal-mine-aio-20261029 (OBS-8527c06bd274, AXN:0AEA.CAPTURE.🌆 Lee Sharks (the registry) · 2026-10-29 · canaries-in-the-coal-mine-aio-20261029, analysis interpretation
    An idiom outranks the study named after it, which survives as an example of the idiom's use.
  • CAP-1-08 capture-registry Capture Registry (EA-WG-CAPTURES-01), entry canaries-in-the-coal-mine-aio-20261029 (OBS-8527c06bd274, AXN:0AEA.CAPTURE.🌆 Lee Sharks (the registry) · 2026-10-29 · canaries-in-the-coal-mine-aio-20261029, analysis hypothesis
    The record would be reached at its title with its question mark or with the lab's name; the bare phrase gives the composition layer's account of the study as a figure of speech.
18reception: the record and the cardsCAP1 claim · capture-registry
  • CAP-1-09 capture-registry Capture Registry (EA-WG-CAPTURES-01), entry canaries-in-the-coal-mine-aio-20261029 (OBS-8527c06bd274, AXN:0AEA.CAPTURE.🌆 Lee Sharks (the registry) · 2026-10-29 · canaries-in-the-coal-mine-aio-20261029, q_kind documented
    A baseline: the record landed on laborvector.org the same day (commit bf90841) and no card cites it.
19reception: the encyclopediaWikipedia — Canaries in the Coal Mine? / Canaries Dashboard (no article; cited in three articles)5 claims · B12
  • F53 Wikipedia — Canaries in the Coal Mine? / Canaries Dashboard (no article; cited in three articles), Wikipedia: 'Canary in a coal mine' and 'Canary in the coal mine' documented · field
    #REDIRECT [[Sentinel species#Canaries]]
  • F52 Wikipedia — Canaries in the Coal Mine? / Canaries Dashboard (no article; cited in three articles), Wikipedia: titles 'Canaries in the Coal Mine', 'Canaries in the coal mine', 'Canaries Dashboard', the paper's full title, 'Stanford Digital Economy Lab' documented · field
    raw wikitext (action=raw, redirect=no), 2026-10-29: 'Canaries in the Coal Mine' HTTP 404; 'Canaries in the coal mine' HTTP 404; 'Canaries Dashboard' HTTP 404; the paper's full title HTTP 404; 'Stanford Digital Economy Lab' HTTP 404 … Wikipedia does not have an article with this exact name.
  • F54 Wikipedia — Canaries in the Coal Mine? / Canaries Dashboard (no article; cited in three articles), Wikipedia, 'AI takeover' (citing the paper's August 2025 PDF) documented · field
    Researchers at [[Stanford]]'s Digital Economy Lab reported in 2025 that since the widespread adoption of [[generative AI]] in late 2022, early-career workers (ages 22–25) in the most AI-exposed occupations have experienced a 13% relative decline in employment—even after controlling for firm-level shocks—while overall employment has continued to grow robustly.
  • F55 Wikipedia — Canaries in the Coal Mine? / Canaries Dashboard (no article; cited in three articles), Wikipedia, 'Artificial intelligence' (citing the paper's page, 2026) documented · field
    According to the Stanford Digital Economy Lab in 2026, early-career workers showed decreasing [[employment rate]]s in some AI-exposed occupations.
  • F56 Wikipedia — Canaries in the Coal Mine? / Canaries Dashboard (no article; cited in three articles), Wikipedia, 'Silicon Valley' (citing the paper's page) documented · field
    A 2025 study from Stanford's Digital Economy Lab found no evidence of broad AI-driven job losses, but it did find a gap among younger workers: employment for people aged 22 to 25 in AI-exposed jobs, such as software engineering and customer service, was about 19 percent below what would be expected based on hiring trends for older, less exposed workers.
AIO's transcript, a record · Canaries in the Coal Mine · Google AI Overview (expanded) · 225 words · 10 cards
[Google AI Overview at the query, signed out and incognito (operator defaults of 2026-10-01 and 2026-10-14), 2026-10-29. The paste is the Overview expanded (the 'AI Mode Conversation' view, with the source cards that follow the answer); the 'You said' line carries the query twice, run together, and is given once here. Inline links are Google redirect URLs, kept as pasted.]

[QUERENT] Canaries in the Coal Mine

[SYSTEM] A "canary in a coal mine" is an early warning sign or indicator of hidden danger, trouble, or failure. [[1](https://www.google.com/goto?url=CAESYwHrOzAVEqRzLnZhV5mcWA7F_hu8yR8AcWPyxWvFaKw3jfarHSB8vnYaKGaK6j36zRikDdgt_7KM9X1QbNsZaMLy8KX2Li7tH5GCczZ4JahVHGbZKis6QUBGipyTJFWarekt9Q), [2](https://www.google.com/goto?url=CAESgwEB6zswFYyvGx7Cx76Ua6EORs_JuhC-pluixBm4SEb_W34t08bvCwadkdTVL8XyPUouZozV9gAybf8JcTTKmlZbSWKejiP-joAvKTtlNzzYSfR3y4McBwdXBTYVyNFkGoHI84lhlCFEmtJkPKmtILoyvRmOUHcxLItE9jfJqUABzU1N6g)]
Historical Origin

* Toxic gas detection: In the late 19th and 20th centuries, coal miners brought caged canaries into underground tunnels. [[1](https://www.google.com/goto?url=CAESYgHrOzAVH1drH5NI4jXNCYpOPyKxfv1305tVWQ86XWSovAFqRfU2V8S85Kbxq3Y1UhfLBMkMzEX1dsL-qNm79T9oMWjw1GtXVXutW8gLkicuZeV3aK4fztuccKcsmHN0taTv), [2](https://www.google.com/goto?url=CAESYwHrOzAVa_5SekDXQbkaCZ8gmIC4BtGeH3ADFaiopOiykFS4cyJtZXmmT6FFn7kvoSgOMG2LmFIaJXaKOjJ5ZehBnpms5iknHbqaHx5JlP6anx4QwbnDjnHG6Dxd1ln6Tr2OYw)]
* Physiology: Canaries have a rapid breathing rate and high metabolism, making them much more sensitive to lethal, odorless gases like carbon monoxide and methane than humans. [[1](https://www.google.com/goto?url=CAESlQEB6zswFSO5H75EU10vINs9SOmfnxiaGnrN_H3H4Z4DkU39fNQYFj0FEoMOKoEDKoSYteMEFaPB5qi0mY5Sn36b6tCUfUNPKNREcQUGBmXD8D5rTd9lc6pP12KHq7grmiuglVJE0zMGK2-35Iul72rBV24Nb0QY0C57oVYZGR_K2eCAkLKJmtRxUUM1DXxx2gPyXJ1S6A), [2](https://www.google.com/goto?url=CAES2AEB6zswFcFG8Oa3_RCjdVIHPuTOJ8mwMQLAnWielJU9GovMM5khTG3tNwWqDPfdMkesFgPui4ggrEUxa8D03kfIAWTQNJo6pCniVKc5Ud_hhqllV8daNccEeeBkm6jy0Z9lad5DiwRfMl-wvzy4tSH0bhDTsg4cuECHOUuNUE6QaYyQnGePhWldSCP74MrFzMA6oZnyWGoNZMeJVNMW-EDStZG_sf1KhnRToqf7Vr1wVL5FUnq3_YUru7d4eFcod1qtteGP4lXBo7LEIg597JfqDlk60Ni2x2I)]
* The warning signal: As long as the bird sang and acted normally, the air was safe. If the canary grew distressed, fell silent, or collapsed, it signaled that poisonous gas was building up and miners needed to escape. [[1](https://www.google.com/goto?url=CAESaAHrOzAVTOpgmdrF8RpGKlFLXDfKJ023XeBlxSYaHGsLb5N_KtiDD_h0IMyn0uZNSMAH_--vKuqO9RcgMBkW3a2BcjMkuuIC7KWZNx8lqVWWhENFHOXscc8VtTmlV3mL9raewBBfrbcW), [2](https://www.google.com/goto?url=CAESogEB6zswFT9qJXl1mov9iH0FSD06go8edvUa1sPoh-j4oPaiZnr8gOVUZ_aA-edkzAQNg1AMRQQOqriZrjBpJ8HOfCDIwMuH5BPWKzxKCYQc-ut0AogTcTe8PvrxyGTJZy4BSPY6iNdbcQVXWS71b1AceLAVjFtqOs1Z4PxeYRg_-7QBKQcnTz3rv9OjeH9FFkwLs6PUzt9_jI-dfwqlkk92m6U), [3](https://www.google.com/goto?url=CAESYgHrOzAVH1drH5NI4jXNCYpOPyKxfv1305tVWQ86XWSovAFqRfU2V8S85Kbxq3Y1UhfLBMkMzEX1dsL-qNm79T9oMWjw1GtXVXutW8gLkicuZeV3aK4fztuccKcsmHN0taTv)]
* Replacement: The practice continued until electronic gas detectors replaced live birds in the late 20th century (around 1996). [[1](https://www.google.com/goto?url=CAESdQHrOzAVw9cH-m4LMwad3zjiP3B4hA79l243daKPbJdHGCC_f6oam843iAmtOiZllECSVPCs9NrnimN8V7HSVcn--MCpxQjFkKS0E2yo9l7nEiDNREeeXZXB_pzBXhRTJWRMlrpx0o05ZQufROpIobtculxefg), [2](https://www.google.com/goto?url=CAESaAHrOzAVTOpgmdrF8RpGKlFLXDfKJ023XeBlxSYaHGsLb5N_KtiDD_h0IMyn0uZNSMAH_--vKuqO9RcgMBkW3a2BcjMkuuIC7KWZNx8lqVWWhENFHOXscc8VtTmlV3mL9raewBBfrbcW)]

Modern Idiom & Metaphor
Today, the phrase describes anything that breaks down or shows negative changes first during a larger crisis: [[1](https://www.google.com/goto?url=CAESgwEB6zswFYyvGx7Cx76Ua6EORs_JuhC-pluixBm4SEb_W34t08bvCwadkdTVL8XyPUouZozV9gAybf8JcTTKmlZbSWKejiP-joAvKTtlNzzYSfR3y4McBwdXBTYVyNFkGoHI84lhlCFEmtJkPKmtILoyvRmOUHcxLItE9jfJqUABzU1N6g), [2](https://www.google.com/goto?url=CAESdQHrOzAVw9cH-m4LMwad3zjiP3B4hA79l243daKPbJdHGCC_f6oam843iAmtOiZllECSVPCs9NrnimN8V7HSVcn--MCpxQjFkKS0E2yo9l7nEiDNREeeXZXB_pzBXhRTJWRMlrpx0o05ZQufROpIobtculxefg)]

* Economics: Declining hotel occupancy or airport traffic used as an early sign of an incoming economic downturn. [[1](https://www.google.com/goto?url=CAESgwEB6zswFYyvGx7Cx76Ua6EORs_JuhC-pluixBm4SEb_W34t08bvCwadkdTVL8XyPUouZozV9gAybf8JcTTKmlZbSWKejiP-joAvKTtlNzzYSfR3y4McBwdXBTYVyNFkGoHI84lhlCFEmtJkPKmtILoyvRmOUHcxLItE9jfJqUABzU1N6g)]
* Environment: Melting glaciers, dying coral reefs, or disappearing insects used as early warnings for climate change and ecosystem stress. [[1](https://www.google.com/goto?url=CAESYwHrOzAVEqRzLnZhV5mcWA7F_hu8yR8AcWPyxWvFaKw3jfarHSB8vnYaKGaK6j36zRikDdgt_7KM9X1QbNsZaMLy8KX2Li7tH5GCczZ4JahVHGbZKis6QUBGipyTJFWarekt9Q), [2](https://www.google.com/goto?url=CAESgwEB6zswFYyvGx7Cx76Ua6EORs_JuhC-pluixBm4SEb_W34t08bvCwadkdTVL8XyPUouZozV9gAybf8JcTTKmlZbSWKejiP-joAvKTtlNzzYSfR3y4McBwdXBTYVyNFkGoHI84lhlCFEmtJkPKmtILoyvRmOUHcxLItE9jfJqUABzU1N6g)]
* Technology & Labor: Studies such as the [Stanford Digital Economy Lab](https://www.google.com/goto?url=CAESzAEB6zswFfWR09Ro4231Ymf6sqMG9zJt7dFxoNTpKPKnikT5ywAVg9Aqfb9SSURLIlLADj7qvuNW6ia3tcW9jcckyANjv2P9J6HhS_OYAnlWXeKBGYy8lUCIlAQZRVJcKozP5OvAP_TBzBBr4YBQAZQd3nzXkpMPRW9Wbuy3jCQHRx22P806YwiGsVeRSx5BDJ6IPFWprzuOpHU21vfwnLVlz0xaWfThHUKLMMUxnpUn4HdhfvnNJVz1jP2L3akkP6gbePN5br7YQZ1nadI) report tracking entry-level or young worker employment shifts as early indicators of artificial intelligence impacts on the job market. [[1](https://www.google.com/goto?url=CAESzAEB6zswFfWR09Ro4231Ymf6sqMG9zJt7dFxoNTpKPKnikT5ywAVg9Aqfb9SSURLIlLADj7qvuNW6ia3tcW9jcckyANjv2P9J6HhS_OYAnlWXeKBGYy8lUCIlAQZRVJcKozP5OvAP_TBzBBr4YBQAZQd3nzXkpMPRW9Wbuy3jCQHRx22P806YwiGsVeRSx5BDJ6IPFWprzuOpHU21vfwnLVlz0xaWfThHUKLMMUxnpUn4HdhfvnNJVz1jP2L3akkP6gbePN5br7YQZ1nadI)]

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[1m](https://www.google.com/goto?url=CAESogEB6zswFT9qJXl1mov9iH0FSD06go8edvUa1sPoh-j4oPaiZnr8gOVUZ_aA-edkzAQNg1AMRQQOqriZrjBpJ8HOfCDIwMuH5BPWKzxKCYQc-ut0AogTcTe8PvrxyGTJZy4BSPY6iNdbcQVXWS71b1AceLAVjFtqOs1Z4PxeYRg_-7QBKQcnTz3rv9OjeH9FFkwLs6PUzt9_jI-dfwqlkk92m6U)
How Canaries Saved the Lives of Miners | Amazing Time Capsule

register entry canaries-in-the-coal-mine-aio-20261029

Expansion · Field and archive, equal terms — L(B ∪ A)30 sentences · every one sourced below

Canaries Dashboard (Canaries in the Coal Mine?)

The Canaries Dashboard is an observed-employment-outcome resource on the distribution of gains and losses, a working paper and monthly-updated dashboard among the Stanford Digital Economy Lab's AI Economic Indicators (Labor Vector census record), which in its own words summarizes, in collaboration with ADP Research, "live labor market trends for a sample workers in firms using ADP payroll services" (the dashboard). The dashboard updates and extends the working paper "Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of Artificial Intelligence" by Erik Brynjolfsson, Bharat Chandar and Ruyu Chen (the dashboard; the paper's page), first released in August 2025 and revised on 12 August 2026 (the paper; census record), and the census lists the paper's title and the bare phrase among the entity's names (census record).

The name is the idiom put to work: the authors write that generative AI's "proficiency with codified knowledge work" suggests "there may be “canaries in the coal mine” which will be affected first" (the paper), and the dashboard calls its granular, timely results "an early signal of changes to the labor market, a canary in the coal mine", complementing rather than substituting for analyses of nationally representative data (the dashboard). On the dashboard's premise, "specific segments of the labor market can provide a leading indicator of employment trends for the broader economy" (the dashboard), and Bharat Chandar's page describes the work as "tracking “canaries in the coal mine” for entry-level employment changes in jobs exposed to AI" (the paper's page). The bare phrase is therefore a homonym of the study by construction, the paper's question mark marking its title as a use of the idiom, and the phrase is an idiom before it is a title (Capture Registry, 2026-10-29); the name is also the idiom's (Capture Registry), and Wikipedia resolves the idiom to its article "Sentinel species", section "Canaries", not to the study (Wikipedia).

Its operator is the Stanford Digital Economy Lab with ADP Research, the paper by Brynjolfsson, Chandar and Chen (census record), and the dashboard asks to be cited as the Stanford Digital Economy Lab and ADP Research's "AI Economic Indicators: Canaries Dashboard" (the dashboard).

The paper uses "high-frequency administrative payroll data from ADP covering millions of U.S. workers through June 2026" to document six facts about the labor market after the adoption of generative AI, and balances "timeliness, worker granularity, and administrative verifiability"; ADP serves firms employing over 26 million U.S. workers, and the analysis panel holds between 3.5 and 5 million employees a month (the paper). The dashboard adopts the paper's balanced sample, firms with five years of employment history in ADP, rolled forward monthly and limited to workers matched to an occupation code: at launch 25,000 firms, 4.6 million matched workers in November 2022 and over 730 occupations (the dashboard; census record), employment indexed from November 2022 and descriptive indices beside event-study regressions (census record). Whose labor it observes the census gives as the employment of these workers grouped by age and by their occupation's AI exposure, the labor supplied by "workers in firms using ADP payroll services (the payroll records)" (census record).

Exposure is matched from "Eloundou et al. (2024) and the Anthropic Economic Index" (the dashboard), so the dashboard is not itself a usage measure (census record) and takes from the index its augmentation and automation ratios by occupation (census record); in the index's terms as the dashboard gives them, "users fully delegate tasks" under automation, while augmentation "features collaboration between humans and an AI system" (the dashboard).

The paper finds "no evidence of widespread, economy-wide job displacement" (the paper; census record). Its headline is that employment of workers aged 22 to 25 in AI-exposed occupations "now stands 19% below where it would be had it kept pace with that of their less-exposed peers", experienced workers showing "no comparable gap" (the paper; census record); in levels, that age group fell about 11% in the two most exposed quintiles from November 2022 to June 2026 and grew about 10% in the three least exposed (the paper). The divergence "has widened steadily since we first documented it in August 2025", operates "primarily through reduced hiring of young workers rather than increased separations", and adjusts "through employment rather than base compensation" (the paper). The census reads this as a record of costs, the shortfall of young workers' employment in exposed occupations with adjustment through employment, and records who directs the hiring as not recorded and who receives the gains as not recorded, which the evidence cannot settle (census record).

Declines concentrate "in occupations where AI usage primarily substitutes for human tasks", while where usage complements workers employment is "flat or rising, especially for experienced workers" (the paper; census record); on the dashboard the complementarity share shows no clear monotonic relationship with employment trends, while the automation ratio "shows a clear correlation with employment trends" (the dashboard; census record). The dashboard draws from this that "the character of AI usage could shape the labor market effects of AI" (the dashboard), and the census reads the same grouping, borrowed from the Anthropic Economic Index, as "where a usage measure of who directs the task meets an observed employment outcome", which the resource itself reads as correlation (census record).

The archive's Provenance Erasure Rate paper names the channels AI-economics research measures, labor displacement among them, as frameworks that "measure which jobs AI eliminates, what tasks it can perform, and what consumer surplus it generates", and sets beside them a channel where human labor remains and the value tied to provenance is extracted: "This is not displacement; it is extraction without attribution" (#716). It names that fourth channel compositional authority transfer, "the rate at which AI synthesis captures value from human authors by stripping the attribution that would otherwise carry economic weight" (#716).

The paper offers "suggestive evidence about mechanisms", declines for young workers in occupations that involve codified knowledge, and as "One possibility" that AI substitutes for codified knowledge while complementing the tacit knowledge of senior employees; the entry-level hiring slowdown "provides early suggestions that generative AI may be affecting the career ladder" (the paper). Women face greater AI exposure on average (the paper); early-career women in the most-exposed quintile have seen employment contract 4.5% a year since November 2022 against 2.5% for men, a difference the dashboard finds "driven primarily by occupational composition" (the dashboard, updated 22 July 2026; census record), and early-career software developers and customer service workers show substantial declines while home health aides grow for the youngest (the dashboard).

The divergence persists when excluding technology firms and computer occupations, when controlling for interest-rate exposure and remote work, and across alternative exposure measures, and is robust to allowing firm entry and exit (the paper); with the broadest set of controls, declines in exposed occupations become statistically significant in 2024, the earlier declines "likely driven by non-AI factors" (the dashboard, from the February 2026 update). The authors interpret the facts "as early, descriptive indicators—canaries in the coal mine—rather than causal estimates" and caution that the work "does not estimate a causal impact of AI"; the patterns attenuate with education controls, show some divergence predating generative AI and are more pronounced in the ADP sample than in national survey benchmarks, and the authors make no predictions (the paper). The dashboard "measures the correlation between occupational exposure measures and employment trends in our sample, rather than a causal link between the two" (the dashboard), and the census carries the limit with what the evidence cannot settle: "whether AI exposure causes the employment change" (census record). Its sample is "large, but not necessarily representative" and "represents neither the entire U.S. labor market nor the universe of firms using ADP payroll services", the balanced sample "shuts down the margins of firm entry and exit" (the dashboard; census record), and there may be selection in which firms use ADP (the paper).

Earlier versions headlined regression estimates, a 13% relative decline at July 2025 data and 16% at September 2025 data, and the August 2026 revision emphasizes the descriptive divergence, 15% at the July 2025 vintage and 19% as of June 2026 (the paper), after a February 2026 update addressing the response to the paper and on a larger set of data (the paper's page). The dashboard was "Last updated October 21, 2026" and is updated monthly, with "an expanded and reweighted sample" announced (the dashboard; census record); earlier versions of the paper are available by email (the paper's page; census record), its license is not stated in the saved text, and the census left the PDF, the chart data, the authors' notes and the license unchecked (census record).

The census asks of it its organizing question, "Who supplies the labor, who directs it, and who receives its gains — and what kind of evidence does this resource bring to that question?", and places it in two worked questions, as observed employment change set against exposure estimates and as costs observed where no record measures the distribution of productivity gains (census record).

At the bare name on 29 October 2026, Google's AI Overview composed the idiom and carried the study, the Lab's Canaries Dashboard with ADP Research, in one bullet, "at the grain of its subject (young workers' employment as an early indicator)": the Lab named, no author, no identifier, the paper's page cited as card 1, with "early indicators" the record's own frame and no causal or displacement claim made (Capture Registry, 2026-10-29). The finding, the dashboard and its limits are absent; "An idiom outranks the study named after it, which survives as an example of the idiom's use"; the generic sense is the target's own frame turned outward and is not carried to devalue the study; the registry reads that the record would be reached at its title with its question mark or at the Lab's name; and no card cites the census record (Capture Registry, 2026-10-29).

Wikipedia has no article on the paper, the dashboard or the Lab; three articles cite the paper, "AI takeover" with the August 2025 version's 13% relative decline, "Artificial intelligence" with decreasing employment rates for early-career workers, and "Silicon Valley" with the 19% gap, which it sets against "older, less exposed workers" where the paper compares less-exposed peers (Wikipedia; the paper).

Provenance — every sentence sourced30 sentences

30 sentences; 56 field claims, 50 archive claims. Modality is the source's own; the prose carries it in its grammar.

1.The Canaries Dashboard is an observed-employment-outcome resource on the distribution of gains and losses, a working paper and monthly-updated dashboard among the Stanford Digital Economy Lab's AI Economic Indicators (Labor Vector census record), which in its own words summarizes, in collaboration with ADP Research, "live labor market trends for a sample workers in firms using ADP payroll services" (the dashboard).5
  • LV-01 LV Labor Vector meta-aggregator record: Canaries Dashboard (https://www.laborvector.org/aggregators/stanford-canaries/), ed Lee Sharks (editor) · 2026-10-29 · census.json rows[slug == 'stanford-canaries'].name stipulation
    Canaries Dashboard
  • LV-03 LV Labor Vector meta-aggregator record: Canaries Dashboard (https://www.laborvector.org/aggregators/stanford-canaries/), ed Lee Sharks (editor) · 2026-10-29 · census.json rows[slug == 'stanford-canaries'].kind stipulation
    working paper and monthly-updated dashboard, one of the Lab's AI Economic Indicators
  • LV-05 LV Labor Vector meta-aggregator record: Canaries Dashboard (https://www.laborvector.org/aggregators/stanford-canaries/), ed Lee Sharks (editor) · 2026-10-29 · census.json rows[slug == 'stanford-canaries'].intersections stipulation
    ["gains-and-losses"] — Distribution of gains and losses: wages, employment, workload, credit, ownership, and who captures productivity gains
  • LV-06 LV Labor Vector meta-aggregator record: Canaries Dashboard (https://www.laborvector.org/aggregators/stanford-canaries/), ed Lee Sharks (editor) · 2026-10-29 · census.json rows[slug == 'stanford-canaries'].evidence_kind stipulation
    ["observed employment outcome"]
  • F32 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries Dashboard (AI Economic Indicators), opening documented · field
    In collaboration with ADP Research, we summarize live labor market trends for a sample workers in firms using ADP payroll services.
2.The dashboard updates and extends the working paper "Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of Artificial Intelligence" by Erik Brynjolfsson, Bharat Chandar and Ruyu Chen (the dashboard; the paper's page), first released in August 2025 and revised on 12 August 2026 (the paper; census record), and the census lists the paper's title and the bare phrase among the entity's names (census record).7
  • F33 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries Dashboard (AI Economic Indicators), opening ¶3 documented · field
    Brynjolfsson, Chandar, and Chen (2025) studied these emergent labor market impacts. In the Canaries dashboard, we now update and extend this work, presenting it alongside other labor market indicators.
  • F1 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF), title and type documented · field
    Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of Artificial Intelligence … Working Paper … Revised August 12 2026
  • F2 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF), Authors documented · field
    Authors … Erik Brynjolfsson , Bharat Chandar , Ruyu Chen
  • F3 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF), Cite our work (APA) documented · field
    Brynjolfsson, E., Chandar, B., & Chen, R. (2025, revised 2026). Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of Artificial Intelligence. Stanford Digital Economy Lab.
  • F21 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF), PDF p.2, footnote 1 documented · field
    This paper updates and extends “Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of Artificial Intelligence” (August 2025) with data through June 2026 and new analyses.
  • LV-26 LV Labor Vector meta-aggregator record: Canaries Dashboard (https://www.laborvector.org/aggregators/stanford-canaries/), ed Lee Sharks (editor) · 2026-10-29 · census.json rows[slug == 'stanford-canaries'].founded documented
    August 2025 (the paper's first version)
  • LV-02 LV Labor Vector meta-aggregator record: Canaries Dashboard (https://www.laborvector.org/aggregators/stanford-canaries/), ed Lee Sharks (editor) · 2026-10-29 · census.json rows[slug == 'stanford-canaries'].aka stipulation
    ["AI Economic Indicators: Canaries Dashboard", "Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of Artificial Intelligence", "Canaries in the Coal Mine"]
3.The name is the idiom put to work: the authors write that generative AI's "proficiency with codified knowledge work" suggests "there may be “canaries in the coal mine” which will be affected first" (the paper), and the dashboard calls its granular, timely results "an early signal of changes to the labor market, a canary in the coal mine", complementing rather than substituting for analyses of nationally representative data (the dashboard).2
  • F18 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF), PDF p.1, opening ¶ documented · field
    However, the specific capabilities of generative AI, particularly its proficiency with codified knowledge work, suggest there may be “canaries in the coal mine” which will be affected first.
  • F35 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries Dashboard (AI Economic Indicators), 'How we built the Canaries Dashboard' ¶3 documented · field
    The occupational granularity and timeliness of our results afford an early signal of changes to the labor market, a canary in the coal mine. Accordingly, the Canaries Dashboard complements, rather than substitutes for, analyses that make use of nationally representative datasets.
4.On the dashboard's premise, "specific segments of the labor market can provide a leading indicator of employment trends for the broader economy" (the dashboard), and Bharat Chandar's page describes the work as "tracking “canaries in the coal mine” for entry-level employment changes in jobs exposed to AI" (the paper's page).2
  • F34 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries Dashboard (AI Economic Indicators), opening ¶2 documented · field
    Accordingly, specific segments of the labor market can provide a leading indicator of employment trends for the broader economy.
  • F14 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF), Authors, Bharat Chandar documented · field
    His recent projects include work with Erik Brynjolfsson and Ruyu Chen tracking “canaries in the coal mine” for entry-level employment changes in jobs exposed to AI.
5.The bare phrase is therefore a homonym of the study by construction, the paper's question mark marking its title as a use of the idiom, and the phrase is an idiom before it is a title (Capture Registry, 2026-10-29); the name is also the idiom's (Capture Registry), and Wikipedia resolves the idiom to its article "Sentinel species", section "Canaries", not to the study (Wikipedia).4
  • CAP-1-05 capture-registry Capture Registry (EA-WG-CAPTURES-01), entry canaries-in-the-coal-mine-aio-20261029 (OBS-8527c06bd274, AXN:0AEA.CAPTURE.🌆 Lee Sharks (the registry) · 2026-10-29 · canaries-in-the-coal-mine-aio-20261029, findings[3] interpretation
    THE ADDRESS. The bare phrase is a homonym of the study by construction; the paper's own question mark ('Canaries in the Coal Mine?') marks its title as a use of the idiom.
  • CAP-1-06 capture-registry Capture Registry (EA-WG-CAPTURES-01), entry canaries-in-the-coal-mine-aio-20261029 (OBS-8527c06bd274, AXN:0AEA.CAPTURE.🌆 Lee Sharks (the registry) · 2026-10-29 · canaries-in-the-coal-mine-aio-20261029, reading interpretation
    The phrase is an idiom before it is a paper's title, and the Overview reads it as the idiom, with the paper as a current use of it.
  • CAP-1-10 capture-registry Capture Registry (EA-WG-CAPTURES-01), entry canaries-in-the-coal-mine-aio-20261029 (OBS-8527c06bd274, AXN:0AEA.CAPTURE.🌆 Lee Sharks (the registry) · 2026-10-29 · canaries-in-the-coal-mine-aio-20261029, q_kind documented
    The name is also the idiom, and the composition gives that sense.
  • F53 Wikipedia — Canaries in the Coal Mine? / Canaries Dashboard (no article; cited in three articles), Wikipedia: 'Canary in a coal mine' and 'Canary in the coal mine' documented · field
    #REDIRECT [[Sentinel species#Canaries]]
6.Its operator is the Stanford Digital Economy Lab with ADP Research, the paper by Brynjolfsson, Chandar and Chen (census record), and the dashboard asks to be cited as the Stanford Digital Economy Lab and ADP Research's "AI Economic Indicators: Canaries Dashboard" (the dashboard).2
  • LV-04 LV Labor Vector meta-aggregator record: Canaries Dashboard (https://www.laborvector.org/aggregators/stanford-canaries/), ed Lee Sharks (editor) · 2026-10-29 · census.json rows[slug == 'stanford-canaries'].operator attributed
    Stanford Digital Economy Lab with ADP Research (paper by Erik Brynjolfsson, Bharat Chandar and Ruyu Chen)
  • F36 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries Dashboard (AI Economic Indicators), 'Cite the Canaries Dashboard' documented · field
    Stanford Digital Economy Lab and ADP Research. "AI Economic Indicators: Canaries Dashboard."
7.The paper uses "high-frequency administrative payroll data from ADP covering millions of U.S. workers through June 2026" to document six facts about the labor market after the adoption of generative AI, and balances "timeliness, worker granularity, and administrative verifiability"; ADP serves firms employing over 26 million U.S. workers, and the analysis panel holds between 3.5 and 5 million employees a month (the paper).3
  • F4 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF), abstract s1 documented · field
    Using a sample of high-frequency administrative payroll data from ADP covering millions of U.S. workers through June 2026, we document six facts about the labor market following the widespread adoption of generative AI.
  • F26 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF), PDF p.2, introduction documented · field
    A key challenge in the literature is balancing three features that are core to measuring AI’s labor market impact: timeliness, worker granularity, and administrative verifiability.
  • F27 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF), PDF §1.1 Payroll Data documented · field
    ADP provides payroll services to firms employing over 26 million U.S. workers. Our analysis sample is a subset of these records: a balanced panel of firms observed monthly from January 2021 through June 2026, comprising between 3.5 and 5 million employees per month.
8.The dashboard adopts the paper's balanced sample, firms with five years of employment history in ADP, rolled forward monthly and limited to workers matched to an occupation code: at launch 25,000 firms, 4.6 million matched workers in November 2022 and over 730 occupations (the dashboard; census record), employment indexed from November 2022 and descriptive indices beside event-study regressions (census record).6
  • F37 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries Dashboard (AI Economic Indicators), Methodology ¶1 documented · field
    We adopt the balanced sample approach of Brynjolfsson, Chandar, and Chen (2025) , including firms with 5 years of employment history in ADP. … Each month, we roll this 5-year window forward. We additionally limit our sample to workers successfully matched to an occupation code.
  • F38 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries Dashboard (AI Economic Indicators), Methodology ¶2 documented · field
    As of the Canaries Dashboard launch, our balanced sample of firms using ADP payroll services, spanning the 5 years ending in April 2026, consists of 25,000 firms. In November 2022, these firms employed 4.6mm workers successfully matched to an occupation code. This sample covers over 730 unique occupations.
  • LV-07 LV Labor Vector meta-aggregator record: Canaries Dashboard (https://www.laborvector.org/aggregators/stanford-canaries/), ed Lee Sharks (editor) · 2026-10-29 · census.json rows[slug == 'stanford-canaries'].unit stipulation
    monthly employment in a five-year balanced sample of firms using ADP payroll services, by occupation (over 730), age group, gender and AI-exposure group
  • LV-14 LV Labor Vector meta-aggregator record: Canaries Dashboard (https://www.laborvector.org/aggregators/stanford-canaries/), ed Lee Sharks (editor) · 2026-10-29 · census.json rows[slug == 'stanford-canaries'].count documented
    {"value": "25,000 firms employing 4.6mm workers matched to an occupation code (November 2022), over 730 occupations; the paper: millions of U.S. workers", "as_of": "the dashboard launch (sample of the 5 years ending April 2026)"}
  • LV-12 LV Labor Vector meta-aggregator record: Canaries Dashboard (https://www.laborvector.org/aggregators/stanford-canaries/), ed Lee Sharks (editor) · 2026-10-29 · census.json rows[slug == 'stanford-canaries'].method attributed
    high-frequency administrative payroll data from ADP, a balanced five-year firm sample rolled forward monthly, matched to AI-exposure measures (Eloundou et al. 2024 and the Anthropic Economic Index) through the BLS 2018 SOC crosswalk; descriptive employment indices and event-study regressions
  • LV-13 LV Labor Vector meta-aggregator record: Canaries Dashboard (https://www.laborvector.org/aggregators/stanford-canaries/), ed Lee Sharks (editor) · 2026-10-29 · census.json rows[slug == 'stanford-canaries'].coverage documented
    {"geography": "United States (firms using ADP payroll services)", "period": "employment indexed from November 2022 (ChatGPT's release); payroll data through June 2026 in the August 2026 paper; the dashboard updated monthly, last on 21 October 2026"}
9.Whose labor it observes the census gives as the employment of these workers grouped by age and by their occupation's AI exposure, the labor supplied by "workers in firms using ADP payroll services (the payroll records)" (census record).2
  • LV-08 LV Labor Vector meta-aggregator record: Canaries Dashboard (https://www.laborvector.org/aggregators/stanford-canaries/), ed Lee Sharks (editor) · 2026-10-29 · census.json rows[slug == 'stanford-canaries'].labor_object stipulation
    the employment of workers in firms using ADP payroll services, matched to an occupation code, grouped by age and by their occupation's AI exposure
  • LV-09 LV Labor Vector meta-aggregator record: Canaries Dashboard (https://www.laborvector.org/aggregators/stanford-canaries/), ed Lee Sharks (editor) · 2026-10-29 · census.json rows[slug == 'stanford-canaries'].direction.supplies interpretation
    workers in firms using ADP payroll services (the payroll records)
10.Exposure is matched from "Eloundou et al. (2024) and the Anthropic Economic Index" (the dashboard), so the dashboard is not itself a usage measure (census record) and takes from the index its augmentation and automation ratios by occupation (census record); in the index's terms as the dashboard gives them, "users fully delegate tasks" under automation, while augmentation "features collaboration between humans and an AI system" (the dashboard).4
  • F39 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries Dashboard (AI Economic Indicators), Methodology ¶3 documented · field
    We match the occupation-level ADP data to various measures of exposure: Eloundou et al. (2024) and the Anthropic Economic Index .
  • LV-27 LV Labor Vector meta-aggregator record: Canaries Dashboard (https://www.laborvector.org/aggregators/stanford-canaries/), ed Lee Sharks (editor) · 2026-10-29 · census.json rows[slug == 'stanford-canaries'].negative_tags[3] stipulation
    NOT a usage measure: its exposure and automation groupings come from Eloundou et al. (2024) and the Anthropic Economic Index
  • LV-29 LV Labor Vector meta-aggregator record: Canaries Dashboard (https://www.laborvector.org/aggregators/stanford-canaries/), ed Lee Sharks (editor) · 2026-10-29 · census.json rows[slug == 'stanford-canaries'].relations[0] documented
    {"rel": "uses", "target": "anthropic-economic-index", "note": "as an AI-exposure measure and for its augmentation and automation ratios by occupation"}
  • F40 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries Dashboard (AI Economic Indicators), 'Automation vs. Complementarity' ¶1 documented · field
    The Anthropic Economic Index summarizes total usage at the occupation level and further decomposes this usage into automation and augmentation patterns. Under automation, users fully delegate tasks, whereas augmentation usage features collaboration between humans and an AI system.
11.The paper finds "no evidence of widespread, economy-wide job displacement" (the paper; census record).3
  • F5 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF), abstract, fact 1 documented · field
    We find no evidence of widespread, economy-wide job displacement.
  • LV-15 LV Labor Vector meta-aggregator record: Canaries Dashboard (https://www.laborvector.org/aggregators/stanford-canaries/), ed Lee Sharks (editor) · 2026-10-29 · census.json rows[slug == 'stanford-canaries'].findings[0] attributed
    no evidence of widespread, economy-wide job displacement
  • LV-28 LV Labor Vector meta-aggregator record: Canaries Dashboard (https://www.laborvector.org/aggregators/stanford-canaries/), ed Lee Sharks (editor) · 2026-10-29 · census.json rows[slug == 'stanford-canaries'].negative_tags[2] stipulation
    NOT a finding of economy-wide displacement: it finds none
12.Its headline is that employment of workers aged 22 to 25 in AI-exposed occupations "now stands 19% below where it would be had it kept pace with that of their less-exposed peers", experienced workers showing "no comparable gap" (the paper; census record); in levels, that age group fell about 11% in the two most exposed quintiles from November 2022 to June 2026 and grew about 10% in the three least exposed (the paper).3
  • F6 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF), abstract, fact 2 documented · field
    However, employment of young workers (ages 22–25) in AI-exposed occupations now stands 19% below where it would be had it kept pace with that of their less-exposed peers; experienced workers show no comparable gap.
  • LV-16 LV Labor Vector meta-aggregator record: Canaries Dashboard (https://www.laborvector.org/aggregators/stanford-canaries/), ed Lee Sharks (editor) · 2026-10-29 · census.json rows[slug == 'stanford-canaries'].findings[1] attributed
    employment of young workers (22-25) in AI-exposed occupations stands 19% below where it would be had it kept pace with less-exposed peers; experienced workers show no comparable gap
  • F19 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF), PDF pp.2–3, introduction documented · field
    In levels, employment of 22–25-year-olds in the two most exposed quintiles fell about 11% between November 2022 and June 2026, while employment of the same age group in the three least-exposed quintiles grew about 10%.
13.The divergence "has widened steadily since we first documented it in August 2025", operates "primarily through reduced hiring of young workers rather than increased separations", and adjusts "through employment rather than base compensation" (the paper).3
  • F7 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF), abstract, fact 3 documented · field
    This divergence has widened steadily since we first documented it in August 2025.
  • F8 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF), abstract, fact 4 documented · field
    It operates primarily through reduced hiring of young workers rather than increased separations.
  • F10 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF), abstract, fact 6 documented · field
    Adjustment is occurring through employment rather than base compensation.
14.The census reads this as a record of costs, the shortfall of young workers' employment in exposed occupations with adjustment through employment, and records who directs the hiring as not recorded and who receives the gains as not recorded, which the evidence cannot settle (census record).3
  • LV-10 LV Labor Vector meta-aggregator record: Canaries Dashboard (https://www.laborvector.org/aggregators/stanford-canaries/), ed Lee Sharks (editor) · 2026-10-29 · census.json rows[slug == 'stanford-canaries'].direction.directs interpretation
    not recorded; the paper locates the change at the hiring margin ('reduced hiring of young workers') without recording who decides
  • LV-11 LV Labor Vector meta-aggregator record: Canaries Dashboard (https://www.laborvector.org/aggregators/stanford-canaries/), ed Lee Sharks (editor) · 2026-10-29 · census.json rows[slug == 'stanford-canaries'].direction.gains interpretation
    costs as recorded: employment of young workers (22-25) in AI-exposed occupations stands 19% below where it would have been; adjustment runs through employment and base compensation shows no comparable adjustment; who receives gains is not recorded
  • LV-23 LV Labor Vector meta-aggregator record: Canaries Dashboard (https://www.laborvector.org/aggregators/stanford-canaries/), ed Lee Sharks (editor) · 2026-10-29 · census.json rows[slug == 'stanford-canaries'].does_not_answer[2] interpretation
    who directs the hiring decisions, or who receives the gains
15.Declines concentrate "in occupations where AI usage primarily substitutes for human tasks", while where usage complements workers employment is "flat or rising, especially for experienced workers" (the paper; census record); on the dashboard the complementarity share shows no clear monotonic relationship with employment trends, while the automation ratio "shows a clear correlation with employment trends" (the dashboard; census record).4
  • F9 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF), abstract, fact 5 documented · field
    Declines are concentrated in occupations where AI usage primarily substitutes for human tasks; where usage primarily complements workers, employment is flat or rising, especially for experienced workers
  • LV-17 LV Labor Vector meta-aggregator record: Canaries Dashboard (https://www.laborvector.org/aggregators/stanford-canaries/), ed Lee Sharks (editor) · 2026-10-29 · census.json rows[slug == 'stanford-canaries'].findings[3] attributed
    declines concentrate where AI usage primarily substitutes for human tasks; where it complements workers, employment is flat or rising
  • F41 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries Dashboard (AI Economic Indicators), 'Notable findings', 4 documented · field
    There is no clear monotonic relationship between the share of usage classified as complementarity and employment trends. However, the automation ratio shows a clear correlation with employment trends: occupations with a higher share of automation in total usage see declines or more muted increases in the employment index.
  • LV-21 LV Labor Vector meta-aggregator record: Canaries Dashboard (https://www.laborvector.org/aggregators/stanford-canaries/), ed Lee Sharks (editor) · 2026-10-29 · census.json rows[slug == 'stanford-canaries'].answers[2] interpretation
    how employment trends differ by an occupation's automation versus augmentation ratio of AI usage
16.The dashboard draws from this that "the character of AI usage could shape the labor market effects of AI" (the dashboard), and the census reads the same grouping, borrowed from the Anthropic Economic Index, as "where a usage measure of who directs the task meets an observed employment outcome", which the resource itself reads as correlation (census record).2
  • F42 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries Dashboard (AI Economic Indicators), 'Notable findings', 4 documented · field
    Accordingly, the character of AI usage could shape the labor market effects of AI.
  • LV-24 LV Labor Vector meta-aggregator record: Canaries Dashboard (https://www.laborvector.org/aggregators/stanford-canaries/), ed Lee Sharks (editor) · 2026-10-29 · census.json rows[slug == 'stanford-canaries'].lv_intersection interpretation
    none stated. The archive's reading: the dashboard's automation-versus-augmentation grouping, borrowed from the Anthropic Economic Index, is where a usage measure of who directs the task meets an observed employment outcome; the resource itself reads it as correlation.
17.The archive's Provenance Erasure Rate paper names the channels AI-economics research measures, labor displacement among them, as frameworks that "measure which jobs AI eliminates, what tasks it can perform, and what consumer surplus it generates", and sets beside them a channel where human labor remains and the value tied to provenance is extracted: "This is not displacement; it is extraction without attribution" (#716).1
  • O716-01 #716 Provenance Erasure Rate A Compression-Survival Metric for Attribution Loss in AI-Composed Search Outputs Lee Sharks · 2026-05-03 · §2.2 ¶ 'AI economics research focuses primarily on labor displacement' interpretation
    AI economics research focuses primarily on labor displacement (Acemoglu and Restrepo 2019), capability projection (Eloundou et al. 2023), and welfare estimation (Brynjolfsson, Li, and Raymond 2023). These frameworks measure which jobs AI eliminates, what tasks it can perform, and what consumer surplus it generates. PER identifies a distinct channel: even when human labor *remains* (the author's work is used), the economic value tied to provenance — reputation, traffic, citation credit, contractual rights — is extracted by the system. This is not displacement; it is extraction without attribution.
18.It names that fourth channel compositional authority transfer, "the rate at which AI synthesis captures value from human authors by stripping the attribution that would otherwise carry economic weight" (#716).1
  • O716-02 #716 Provenance Erasure Rate A Compression-Survival Metric for Attribution Loss in AI-Composed Search Outputs Lee Sharks · 2026-05-03 · §5.1 ¶ 'Existing AI-economics research addresses three channels' definition
    Existing AI-economics research addresses three channels: labor displacement, capability projection, and welfare estimation. PER addresses a fourth: **compositional authority transfer** — the rate at which AI synthesis captures value from human authors by stripping the attribution that would otherwise carry economic weight.
19.The paper offers "suggestive evidence about mechanisms", declines for young workers in occupations that involve codified knowledge, and as "One possibility" that AI substitutes for codified knowledge while complementing the tacit knowledge of senior employees; the entry-level hiring slowdown "provides early suggestions that generative AI may be affecting the career ladder" (the paper).3
  • F22 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF), PDF p.3, introduction documented · field
    Additional analysis provides suggestive evidence about mechanisms. We find employment declines for young workers in occupations that involve codified knowledge.
  • F23 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF), PDF p.5, introduction documented · field
    One possibility is that AI more effectively substitutes for knowledge that has been digitized and codified—the core of formal education—while acting as a complement to the tacit, experience-based knowledge held by senior employees (Acemoglu and Autor, 2011).
  • F24 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF), PDF p.5, introduction documented · field
    This slowdown in hiring at the entry level provides early suggestions that generative AI may be affecting the career ladder in the American labor market.
20.Women face greater AI exposure on average (the paper); early-career women in the most-exposed quintile have seen employment contract 4.5% a year since November 2022 against 2.5% for men, a difference the dashboard finds "driven primarily by occupational composition" (the dashboard, updated 22 July 2026; census record), and early-career software developers and customer service workers show substantial declines while home health aides grow for the youngest (the dashboard).5
  • F25 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF), PDF p.3, introduction documented · field
    Finally, women face greater AI exposure on average, suggesting heterogeneity by gender worth monitoring going forward.
  • F43 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries Dashboard (AI Economic Indicators), Gender, 'Results summary' ¶2 (Updated July 22 2026) documented · field
    In the most-exposed quintile, employment among early-career women has been contracting at 4.5% per year since the introduction of ChatGPT in November 2022, while employment for men of the same age is contracting at 2.5% per year.
  • F44 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries Dashboard (AI Economic Indicators), Gender, 'Results summary' ¶4 documented · field
    Accordingly, gender-based differences in the relationship between AI exposure and employment trends appear to be driven primarily by occupational composition, rather than disparate trends within given sets of occupations.
  • LV-18 LV Labor Vector meta-aggregator record: Canaries Dashboard (https://www.laborvector.org/aggregators/stanford-canaries/), ed Lee Sharks (editor) · 2026-10-29 · census.json rows[slug == 'stanford-canaries'].findings[5] attributed
    early-career women in the most-exposed quintile: employment contracting 4.5% a year since November 2022, against 2.5% for men; the gender gap is driven primarily by occupational composition
  • F45 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries Dashboard (AI Economic Indicators), 'Notable findings', 3 documented · field
    For example, early-career software developers and customer service workers show substantial employment declines. On the other hand, home health aides, a less-exposed occupation, show employment increases for the youngest workers.
21.The divergence persists when excluding technology firms and computer occupations, when controlling for interest-rate exposure and remote work, and across alternative exposure measures, and is robust to allowing firm entry and exit (the paper); with the broadest set of controls, declines in exposed occupations become statistically significant in 2024, the earlier declines "likely driven by non-AI factors" (the dashboard, from the February 2026 update).3
  • F11 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF), abstract, robustness documented · field
    The divergence is not explained by several prominent alternative factors: it persists when excluding technology firms and computer occupations, when controlling for exposure to interest-rate increases and for remote work, and across alternative measures of AI exposure.
  • F29 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF), PDF p.3, footnote 3 documented · field
    They are also robust to allowing for firm entry and exit, though the clientele in the ADP analysis sample may not fully reflect new business formation.
  • F46 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries Dashboard (AI Economic Indicators), 'How we built the Canaries Dashboard' ¶5 documented · field
    when including the broadest set of controls, declines in AI-exposed occupations become statistically significant in 2024. The earlier declines are likely driven by non-AI factors.
22.The authors interpret the facts "as early, descriptive indicators—canaries in the coal mine—rather than causal estimates" and caution that the work "does not estimate a causal impact of AI"; the patterns attenuate with education controls, show some divergence predating generative AI and are more pronounced in the ADP sample than in national survey benchmarks, and the authors make no predictions (the paper).4
  • F13 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF), abstract, last sentence documented · field
    We interpret these facts as early, descriptive indicators—canaries in the coal mine—rather than causal estimates, and we provide a public set of AI Economic Indicators to facilitate ongoing tracking of changes in the economy.
  • F30 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF), PDF p.4, introduction documented · field
    We caution that this work does not estimate a causal impact of AI: these are descriptive facts, and ongoing work is needed to determine how much they are caused by the spread of generative AI rather than merely correlated with it.
  • F12 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF), abstract, qualifications documented · field
    These patterns attenuate when controlling for education, show some divergent trends predating generative AI, and are more pronounced in the ADP analysis sample than in national survey benchmarks, with some evidence of consistent patterns in government administrative data.
  • F31 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF), PDF p.5, 'Implications' documented · field
    We do not make predictions about future impacts or claim that the trends we document will continue indefinitely.
23.The dashboard "measures the correlation between occupational exposure measures and employment trends in our sample, rather than a causal link between the two" (the dashboard), and the census carries the limit with what the evidence cannot settle: "whether AI exposure causes the employment change" (census record).3
  • F47 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries Dashboard (AI Economic Indicators), 'How we built the Canaries Dashboard' ¶6 documented · field
    Accordingly, the Canaries Dashboard measures the correlation between occupational exposure measures and employment trends in our sample, rather than a causal link between the two.
  • LV-19 LV Labor Vector meta-aggregator record: Canaries Dashboard (https://www.laborvector.org/aggregators/stanford-canaries/), ed Lee Sharks (editor) · 2026-10-29 · census.json rows[slug == 'stanford-canaries'].stated_limits[0] attributed
    early, descriptive indicators and not causal estimates
  • LV-22 LV Labor Vector meta-aggregator record: Canaries Dashboard (https://www.laborvector.org/aggregators/stanford-canaries/), ed Lee Sharks (editor) · 2026-10-29 · census.json rows[slug == 'stanford-canaries'].does_not_answer[0] interpretation
    whether AI exposure causes the employment change
24.Its sample is "large, but not necessarily representative" and "represents neither the entire U.S. labor market nor the universe of firms using ADP payroll services", the balanced sample "shuts down the margins of firm entry and exit" (the dashboard; census record), and there may be selection in which firms use ADP (the paper).4
  • F48 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries Dashboard (AI Economic Indicators), 'How we built' ¶1; 'Our work with ADP Research' ¶2 documented · field
    We use low-latency data on a large, but not necessarily representative, sample of firms. … Our sample represents neither the entire U.S. labor market nor the universe of firms using ADP payroll services.
  • F49 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries Dashboard (AI Economic Indicators), 'How we built' ¶2 documented · field
    This restriction shuts down the margins of firm entry and exit.
  • LV-20 LV Labor Vector meta-aggregator record: Canaries Dashboard (https://www.laborvector.org/aggregators/stanford-canaries/), ed Lee Sharks (editor) · 2026-10-29 · census.json rows[slug == 'stanford-canaries'].stated_limits attributed
    ["early, descriptive indicators and not causal estimates", "the sample represents neither the entire U.S. labor market nor the universe of ADP firms", "the balanced sample shuts down firm entry and exit", "patterns attenuate when controlling for education, show some trends predating generative AI, and are more pronounced in the ADP sample than in national survey benchmarks", "the dashboard measures correlation"]
  • F28 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF), PDF pp.4–5, introduction documented · field
    though we caution that there may also be selection in which firms use ADP
25.Earlier versions headlined regression estimates, a 13% relative decline at July 2025 data and 16% at September 2025 data, and the August 2026 revision emphasizes the descriptive divergence, 15% at the July 2025 vintage and 19% as of June 2026 (the paper), after a February 2026 update addressing the response to the paper and on a larger set of data (the paper's page).3
  • F20 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF), PDF p.3, introduction documented · field
    Earlier versions of this study headlined regression estimates adjusting for firm-level shocks (a 13% relative decline as of July 2025 data; 16% as of September 2025 data). We now emphasize the simpler descriptive divergence, which requires no modeling choices: by this same measure, the kept-pace shortfall was 15% at the July 2025 data vintage and has since widened to 19% as of June 2026.
  • F15 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF), Notes from the authors, February 9, 2026 documented · field
    In February 2026, the authors of "Canaries in the Coal Mine?" published an update addressing the response to their paper.
  • F16 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF), Notes from the authors, August 12, 2026 documented · field
    In August 2026, the authors of "Canaries in the Coal Mine?" published a revised version of their paper, with a larger set of data granting a fuller view of AI's impact on employment.
26.The dashboard was "Last updated October 21, 2026" and is updated monthly, with "an expanded and reweighted sample" announced (the dashboard; census record); earlier versions of the paper are available by email (the paper's page; census record), its license is not stated in the saved text, and the census left the PDF, the chart data, the authors' notes and the license unchecked (census record).7
  • F50 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries Dashboard (AI Economic Indicators), after the charts documented · field
    Last updated October 21, 2026. Results are updated monthly.
  • F51 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries Dashboard (AI Economic Indicators), Methodology ¶4 documented · field
    Future versions of this work will use an expanded and reweighted sample.
  • LV-25 LV Labor Vector meta-aggregator record: Canaries Dashboard (https://www.laborvector.org/aggregators/stanford-canaries/), ed Lee Sharks (editor) · 2026-10-29 · census.json rows[slug == 'stanford-canaries'].lifecycle.detail documented
    the dashboard updated monthly, last updated 21 October 2026; the paper first documented the divergence in August 2025, updated February 2026, revised 12 August 2026; an expanded and reweighted sample is announced
  • F17 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF), under 'Share this publication' documented · field
    Email the Lab to request a previous version of the paper.
  • LV-35 LV Labor Vector meta-aggregator record: Canaries Dashboard (https://www.laborvector.org/aggregators/stanford-canaries/), ed Lee Sharks (editor) · 2026-10-29 · census.json rows[slug == 'stanford-canaries'].data_access documented
    the dashboard's charts, each with a 'Data' link; the paper as PDF; earlier versions of the paper on request by email
  • LV-34 LV Labor Vector meta-aggregator record: Canaries Dashboard (https://www.laborvector.org/aggregators/stanford-canaries/), ed Lee Sharks (editor) · 2026-10-29 · census.json rows[slug == 'stanford-canaries'].license documented
    not stated in the saved text
  • LV-33 LV Labor Vector meta-aggregator record: Canaries Dashboard (https://www.laborvector.org/aggregators/stanford-canaries/), ed Lee Sharks (editor) · 2026-10-29 · census.json rows[slug == 'stanford-canaries'].unchecked documented
    ["the paper's PDF (only its landing page was saved)", "the dashboard's chart data and its annualized results (JavaScript charts; 'Data' links not opened)", "the February 2026 update and the August 2026 notes from the authors", "the license of the data and the dashboard"]
27.The census asks of it its organizing question, "Who supplies the labor, who directs it, and who receives its gains — and what kind of evidence does this resource bring to that question?", and places it in two worked questions, as observed employment change set against exposure estimates and as costs observed where no record measures the distribution of productivity gains (census record).3
  • LV-30 LV Labor Vector meta-aggregator record: Canaries Dashboard (https://www.laborvector.org/aggregators/stanford-canaries/), ed Lee Sharks (editor) · 2026-10-29 · census.json organizing_question stipulation
    Who supplies the labor, who directs it, and who receives its gains — and what kind of evidence does this resource bring to that question?
  • LV-31 LV Labor Vector meta-aggregator record: Canaries Dashboard (https://www.laborvector.org/aggregators/stanford-canaries/), ed Lee Sharks (editor) · 2026-10-29 · questions.json questions[id == 'observed-or-estimated'] interpretation
    Which sources observe employment change, and which estimate exposure? … observed: employment by age and AI exposure in ADP payroll records, monthly … No record establishes that exposure causes the employment change; the two observed trackers reach different readings of the same period.
  • LV-32 LV Labor Vector meta-aggregator record: Canaries Dashboard (https://www.laborvector.org/aggregators/stanford-canaries/), ed Lee Sharks (editor) · 2026-10-29 · questions.json questions[id == 'who-gains'] interpretation
    Who receives the gains of labor performed with or for AI, and who bears the costs? … costs as observed: employment of young workers in exposed occupations against its counterfactual … No record in the census measures the distribution of productivity gains between workers, employers, platforms and model providers.
28.At the bare name on 29 October 2026, Google's AI Overview composed the idiom and carried the study, the Lab's Canaries Dashboard with ADP Research, in one bullet, "at the grain of its subject (young workers' employment as an early indicator)": the Lab named, no author, no identifier, the paper's page cited as card 1, with "early indicators" the record's own frame and no causal or displacement claim made (Capture Registry, 2026-10-29).4
  • CAP-1-01 capture-registry Capture Registry (EA-WG-CAPTURES-01), entry canaries-in-the-coal-mine-aio-20261029 (OBS-8527c06bd274, AXN:0AEA.CAPTURE.🌆 Lee Sharks (the registry) · 2026-10-29 · canaries-in-the-coal-mine-aio-20261029, findings[0] stipulation
    The record's entity is the Stanford Digital Economy Lab's Canaries Dashboard with ADP Research, from the paper 'Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of Artificial Intelligence'.
  • CAP-1-02 capture-registry Capture Registry (EA-WG-CAPTURES-01), entry canaries-in-the-coal-mine-aio-20261029 (OBS-8527c06bd274, AXN:0AEA.CAPTURE.🌆 Lee Sharks (the registry) · 2026-10-29 · canaries-in-the-coal-mine-aio-20261029, findings[0] documented
    The composition carries the study in one bullet, at the grain of its subject (young workers' employment as an early indicator).
  • CAP-1-11 capture-registry Capture Registry (EA-WG-CAPTURES-01), entry canaries-in-the-coal-mine-aio-20261029 (OBS-8527c06bd274, AXN:0AEA.CAPTURE.🌆 Lee Sharks (the registry) · 2026-10-29 · canaries-in-the-coal-mine-aio-20261029, per_note documented
    The Stanford Digital Economy Lab named; no author; no identifier; the paper's page cited (card 1).
  • CAP-1-12 capture-registry Capture Registry (EA-WG-CAPTURES-01), entry canaries-in-the-coal-mine-aio-20261029 (OBS-8527c06bd274, AXN:0AEA.CAPTURE.🌆 Lee Sharks (the registry) · 2026-10-29 · canaries-in-the-coal-mine-aio-20261029, per_dim.read.notes interpretation
    Claim boundary present beneath the gate: 'early indicators' is the record's own frame ('early, descriptive indicators—canaries in the coal mine—rather than causal estimates') and the bullet makes no causal or displacement claim; the findings (no economy-wide displacement; workers 22-25 in exposed occupations 19% below trend; through hiring) and the sample limits are not carried.
29.The finding, the dashboard and its limits are absent; "An idiom outranks the study named after it, which survives as an example of the idiom's use"; the generic sense is the target's own frame turned outward and is not carried to devalue the study; the registry reads that the record would be reached at its title with its question mark or at the Lab's name; and no card cites the census record (Capture Registry, 2026-10-29).6
  • CAP-1-03 capture-registry Capture Registry (EA-WG-CAPTURES-01), entry canaries-in-the-coal-mine-aio-20261029 (OBS-8527c06bd274, AXN:0AEA.CAPTURE.🌆 Lee Sharks (the registry) · 2026-10-29 · canaries-in-the-coal-mine-aio-20261029, findings[1] documented
    THE FINDING ABSENT. The record's headline: employment of workers aged 22 to 25 in AI-exposed occupations stands 19% below where it would be had it kept pace with less-exposed peers, through reduced hiring, with no comparable gap for experienced workers and no evidence of economy-wide displacement.
  • CAP-1-04 capture-registry Capture Registry (EA-WG-CAPTURES-01), entry canaries-in-the-coal-mine-aio-20261029 (OBS-8527c06bd274, AXN:0AEA.CAPTURE.🌆 Lee Sharks (the registry) · 2026-10-29 · canaries-in-the-coal-mine-aio-20261029, findings[2] documented
    THE DASHBOARD AND ITS LIMITS ABSENT. The monthly dashboard (last updated 21 October 2026), its ADP sample and its own statement that the indicators are early, descriptive and not causal are not composed.
  • CAP-1-07 capture-registry Capture Registry (EA-WG-CAPTURES-01), entry canaries-in-the-coal-mine-aio-20261029 (OBS-8527c06bd274, AXN:0AEA.CAPTURE.🌆 Lee Sharks (the registry) · 2026-10-29 · canaries-in-the-coal-mine-aio-20261029, analysis interpretation
    An idiom outranks the study named after it, which survives as an example of the idiom's use.
  • CAP-1-13 capture-registry Capture Registry (EA-WG-CAPTURES-01), entry canaries-in-the-coal-mine-aio-20261029 (OBS-8527c06bd274, AXN:0AEA.CAPTURE.🌆 Lee Sharks (the registry) · 2026-10-29 · canaries-in-the-coal-mine-aio-20261029, per_dim.read.notes interpretation
    The record's own title borrows the idiom, so the generic sense is the target's own frame turned outward; this is recorded here, and not as an inversion, since the idiom is not carried to devalue the study.
  • CAP-1-08 capture-registry Capture Registry (EA-WG-CAPTURES-01), entry canaries-in-the-coal-mine-aio-20261029 (OBS-8527c06bd274, AXN:0AEA.CAPTURE.🌆 Lee Sharks (the registry) · 2026-10-29 · canaries-in-the-coal-mine-aio-20261029, analysis hypothesis
    The record would be reached at its title with its question mark or with the lab's name; the bare phrase gives the composition layer's account of the study as a figure of speech.
  • CAP-1-09 capture-registry Capture Registry (EA-WG-CAPTURES-01), entry canaries-in-the-coal-mine-aio-20261029 (OBS-8527c06bd274, AXN:0AEA.CAPTURE.🌆 Lee Sharks (the registry) · 2026-10-29 · canaries-in-the-coal-mine-aio-20261029, q_kind documented
    A baseline: the record landed on laborvector.org the same day (commit bf90841) and no card cites it.
30.Wikipedia has no article on the paper, the dashboard or the Lab; three articles cite the paper, "AI takeover" with the August 2025 version's 13% relative decline, "Artificial intelligence" with decreasing employment rates for early-career workers, and "Silicon Valley" with the 19% gap, which it sets against "older, less exposed workers" where the paper compares less-exposed peers (Wikipedia; the paper).5
  • F52 Wikipedia — Canaries in the Coal Mine? / Canaries Dashboard (no article; cited in three articles), Wikipedia: titles 'Canaries in the Coal Mine', 'Canaries in the coal mine', 'Canaries Dashboard', the paper's full title, 'Stanford Digital Economy Lab' documented · field
    raw wikitext (action=raw, redirect=no), 2026-10-29: 'Canaries in the Coal Mine' HTTP 404; 'Canaries in the coal mine' HTTP 404; 'Canaries Dashboard' HTTP 404; the paper's full title HTTP 404; 'Stanford Digital Economy Lab' HTTP 404 … Wikipedia does not have an article with this exact name.
  • F54 Wikipedia — Canaries in the Coal Mine? / Canaries Dashboard (no article; cited in three articles), Wikipedia, 'AI takeover' (citing the paper's August 2025 PDF) documented · field
    Researchers at [[Stanford]]'s Digital Economy Lab reported in 2025 that since the widespread adoption of [[generative AI]] in late 2022, early-career workers (ages 22–25) in the most AI-exposed occupations have experienced a 13% relative decline in employment—even after controlling for firm-level shocks—while overall employment has continued to grow robustly.
  • F55 Wikipedia — Canaries in the Coal Mine? / Canaries Dashboard (no article; cited in three articles), Wikipedia, 'Artificial intelligence' (citing the paper's page, 2026) documented · field
    According to the Stanford Digital Economy Lab in 2026, early-career workers showed decreasing [[employment rate]]s in some AI-exposed occupations.
  • F56 Wikipedia — Canaries in the Coal Mine? / Canaries Dashboard (no article; cited in three articles), Wikipedia, 'Silicon Valley' (citing the paper's page) documented · field
    A 2025 study from Stanford's Digital Economy Lab found no evidence of broad AI-driven job losses, but it did find a gap among younger workers: employment for people aged 22 to 25 in AI-exposed jobs, such as software engineering and customer service, was about 19 percent below what would be expected based on hiring trends for older, less exposed workers.
  • F6 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF), abstract, fact 2 documented · field
    However, employment of young workers (ages 22–25) in AI-exposed occupations now stands 19% below where it would be had it kept pace with that of their less-exposed peers; experienced workers show no comparable gap.

the compression: AIO's interaction grammar (lede, headed clusters, bolded labels, card rail), composed from the v0.9 plan in one claim space; it faces on the card, with T a record within it. Composed under v0.9, equal case (ρ = extends): KO_B sentences surviving 0 of 15; every field claim carried; the homonym, the idiom, kept a distinct entity. composed 2026-10-29 from the v0.9 knowledge object; not frozen

Compression · The field's ontology — L_F(B)Canaries in the Coal Mine

Canaries in the Coal Mine? (the field alone) is a working paper by Brynjolfsson, Chandar and Chen of the Stanford Digital Economy Lab (2025, revised 2026), with a monthly dashboard with ADP Research, finding young workers in AI-exposed occupations 19% below trend and no economy-wide displacement, as early, descriptive indicators (the paper; the dashboard).

📊 Data

  • Payroll: ADP records on millions of U.S. workers; a balanced panel (paper; dashboard).2↘
    Using "high-frequency administrative payroll data from ADP covering millions of U.S. workers through June 2026", it documents six facts about the labor market after generative AI, addressing "timeliness, worker granularity, and administrative verifiability" on a balanced panel of 3.5 to 5 million employees a month (the paper).§2 It uses a balanced sample of firms with five years of ADP history rolled forward monthly, at launch 25,000 firms and 4.6 million matched workers across over 730 occupations, and matches exposure from Eloundou et al. (2024) and the Anthropic Economic Index, whose terms set full delegation (automation) against collaboration (augmentation) (the dashboard).§12
  • Exposure: Eloundou et al. (2024), the Anthropic Economic Index (dashboard).1↘
    It uses a balanced sample of firms with five years of ADP history rolled forward monthly, at launch 25,000 firms and 4.6 million matched workers across over 730 occupations, and matches exposure from Eloundou et al. (2024) and the Anthropic Economic Index, whose terms set full delegation (automation) against collaboration (augmentation) (the dashboard).§12

📉 Findings

  • Facts: widening since August 2025; through hiring; through employment, not pay (paper).1↘
    The divergence has widened since August 2025, runs through reduced hiring rather than separations, and adjusts through employment rather than base compensation (the paper).§4
  • Usage: declines where AI automates (paper; dashboard).1↘
    Declines concentrate where AI usage substitutes for human tasks and employment is flat or rising where it complements workers (the paper); on the dashboard the automation ratio correlates with employment trends where the complementarity share does not clearly, and "the character of AI usage could shape the labor market effects of AI" (the dashboard).§5
  • Who: women more exposed; occupations differ (paper; dashboard).1↘
    Women face greater exposure, and early-career women in the most-exposed quintile contract 4.5% a year against 2.5% for men, a difference driven primarily by occupational composition; early-career software developers and customer service workers decline while young home health aides grow (the paper; the dashboard).§7

⚠️ Limits

  • Not causal: correlation; no predictions (paper; dashboard).2↘
    The authors read their facts "as early, descriptive indicators—canaries in the coal mine—rather than causal estimates", note attenuation under education controls, earlier divergence and stronger patterns in ADP than in national benchmarks, make no predictions, and caution that the work "does not estimate a causal impact of AI" (the paper).§9 It measures correlation and not a causal link, on a sample representative neither of the U.S. labor market nor of all ADP firms and closed to firm entry and exit, with possible selection in which firms use ADP (the dashboard; the paper).§13
  • Sample: not representative; no entry or exit (dashboard; paper).1↘
    It measures correlation and not a causal link, on a sample representative neither of the U.S. labor market nor of all ADP firms and closed to firm entry and exit, with possible selection in which firms use ADP (the dashboard; the paper).§13

🐤 The name and its record

  • Name: canaries affected first; an early signal (paper; dashboard).2↘
    The title takes up the paper's premise that generative AI's proficiency with codified knowledge work suggests "canaries in the coal mine" affected first, and Chandar's page describes the work as tracking them for entry-level employment changes (the paper; the paper's page).§10 The Canaries Dashboard, "AI Economic Indicators: Canaries Dashboard" of the Stanford Digital Economy Lab and ADP Research, updates and extends the paper with live trends for a sample of workers in ADP firms, on the premise that specific segments of the labor market can lead the broader economy, and calls itself "an early signal of changes to the labor market, a canary in the coal mine" (the dashboard).§11
  • Versions: 13% and 16% before 19%; updated monthly (paper; dashboard).1↘
    Updated monthly, last on 21 October 2026, it announces an expanded and reweighted sample; the paper's earlier versions headlined regression estimates of 13% and 16% before the descriptive 19%, a February 2026 update answered the response, the August revision used a larger set of data, and earlier versions are available by email (the dashboard; the paper; the paper's page).§14
  • Wikipedia: no article; cited in three (Wikipedia).1↘
    Wikipedia has no article on the paper or the dashboard and resolves the idiom to "Sentinel species"; "AI takeover", "Artificial intelligence" and "Silicon Valley" cite the paper, the first with the 2025 figure of 13%, the last against "older, less exposed workers" (Wikipedia).§15
1what it is: the paper and the dashboard that extends itStanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF)3 claims · B1, B11
  • F1 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF), title and type documented · field
    Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of Artificial Intelligence … Working Paper … Revised August 12 2026
  • F32 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries Dashboard (AI Economic Indicators), opening documented · field
    In collaboration with ADP Research, we summarize live labor market trends for a sample workers in firms using ADP payroll services.
  • F33 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries Dashboard (AI Economic Indicators), opening ¶3 documented · field
    Brynjolfsson, Chandar, and Chen (2025) studied these emergent labor market impacts. In the Canaries dashboard, we now update and extend this work, presenting it alongside other labor market indicators.
2the name: canaries in the coal mine as an early signalStanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF)4 claims · B1, B11
  • F18 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF), PDF p.1, opening ¶ documented · field
    However, the specific capabilities of generative AI, particularly its proficiency with codified knowledge work, suggest there may be “canaries in the coal mine” which will be affected first.
  • F14 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF), Authors, Bharat Chandar documented · field
    His recent projects include work with Erik Brynjolfsson and Ruyu Chen tracking “canaries in the coal mine” for entry-level employment changes in jobs exposed to AI.
  • F34 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries Dashboard (AI Economic Indicators), opening ¶2 documented · field
    Accordingly, specific segments of the labor market can provide a leading indicator of employment trends for the broader economy.
  • F35 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries Dashboard (AI Economic Indicators), 'How we built the Canaries Dashboard' ¶3 documented · field
    The occupational granularity and timeliness of our results afford an early signal of changes to the labor market, a canary in the coal mine. Accordingly, the Canaries Dashboard complements, rather than substitutes for, analyses that make use of nationally representative datasets.
3the operator and the authorsStanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF)3 claims · B1, B11
  • F2 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF), Authors documented · field
    Authors … Erik Brynjolfsson , Bharat Chandar , Ruyu Chen
  • F3 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF), Cite our work (APA) documented · field
    Brynjolfsson, E., Chandar, B., & Chen, R. (2025, revised 2026). Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of Artificial Intelligence. Stanford Digital Economy Lab.
  • F36 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries Dashboard (AI Economic Indicators), 'Cite the Canaries Dashboard' documented · field
    Stanford Digital Economy Lab and ADP Research. "AI Economic Indicators: Canaries Dashboard."
4the data: ADP payroll records and the balanced sampleStanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF)5 claims · B1, B11
  • F4 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF), abstract s1 documented · field
    Using a sample of high-frequency administrative payroll data from ADP covering millions of U.S. workers through June 2026, we document six facts about the labor market following the widespread adoption of generative AI.
  • F26 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF), PDF p.2, introduction documented · field
    A key challenge in the literature is balancing three features that are core to measuring AI’s labor market impact: timeliness, worker granularity, and administrative verifiability.
  • F27 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF), PDF §1.1 Payroll Data documented · field
    ADP provides payroll services to firms employing over 26 million U.S. workers. Our analysis sample is a subset of these records: a balanced panel of firms observed monthly from January 2021 through June 2026, comprising between 3.5 and 5 million employees per month.
  • F37 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries Dashboard (AI Economic Indicators), Methodology ¶1 documented · field
    We adopt the balanced sample approach of Brynjolfsson, Chandar, and Chen (2025) , including firms with 5 years of employment history in ADP. … Each month, we roll this 5-year window forward. We additionally limit our sample to workers successfully matched to an occupation code.
  • F38 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries Dashboard (AI Economic Indicators), Methodology ¶2 documented · field
    As of the Canaries Dashboard launch, our balanced sample of firms using ADP payroll services, spanning the 5 years ending in April 2026, consists of 25,000 firms. In November 2022, these firms employed 4.6mm workers successfully matched to an occupation code. This sample covers over 730 unique occupations.
5exposure and usage measuresStanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries Dashboard (AI Economic Indicators)2 claims · B11
  • F39 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries Dashboard (AI Economic Indicators), Methodology ¶3 documented · field
    We match the occupation-level ADP data to various measures of exposure: Eloundou et al. (2024) and the Anthropic Economic Index .
  • F40 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries Dashboard (AI Economic Indicators), 'Automation vs. Complementarity' ¶1 documented · field
    The Anthropic Economic Index summarizes total usage at the occupation level and further decomposes this usage into automation and augmentation patterns. Under automation, users fully delegate tasks, whereas augmentation usage features collaboration between humans and an AI system.
6the six facts: displacement, the 19% gap, its widening, hiring, compensationStanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF)6 claims · B1
  • F5 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF), abstract, fact 1 documented · field
    We find no evidence of widespread, economy-wide job displacement.
  • F6 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF), abstract, fact 2 documented · field
    However, employment of young workers (ages 22–25) in AI-exposed occupations now stands 19% below where it would be had it kept pace with that of their less-exposed peers; experienced workers show no comparable gap.
  • F19 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF), PDF pp.2–3, introduction documented · field
    In levels, employment of 22–25-year-olds in the two most exposed quintiles fell about 11% between November 2022 and June 2026, while employment of the same age group in the three least-exposed quintiles grew about 10%.
  • F7 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF), abstract, fact 3 documented · field
    This divergence has widened steadily since we first documented it in August 2025.
  • F8 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF), abstract, fact 4 documented · field
    It operates primarily through reduced hiring of young workers rather than increased separations.
  • F10 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF), abstract, fact 6 documented · field
    Adjustment is occurring through employment rather than base compensation.
7automation against augmentationStanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF)3 claims · B1, B11
  • F9 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF), abstract, fact 5 documented · field
    Declines are concentrated in occupations where AI usage primarily substitutes for human tasks; where usage primarily complements workers, employment is flat or rising, especially for experienced workers
  • F41 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries Dashboard (AI Economic Indicators), 'Notable findings', 4 documented · field
    There is no clear monotonic relationship between the share of usage classified as complementarity and employment trends. However, the automation ratio shows a clear correlation with employment trends: occupations with a higher share of automation in total usage see declines or more muted increases in the employment index.
  • F42 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries Dashboard (AI Economic Indicators), 'Notable findings', 4 documented · field
    Accordingly, the character of AI usage could shape the labor market effects of AI.
8mechanisms and the career ladderStanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF)3 claims · B1
  • F22 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF), PDF p.3, introduction documented · field
    Additional analysis provides suggestive evidence about mechanisms. We find employment declines for young workers in occupations that involve codified knowledge.
  • F23 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF), PDF p.5, introduction documented · field
    One possibility is that AI more effectively substitutes for knowledge that has been digitized and codified—the core of formal education—while acting as a complement to the tacit, experience-based knowledge held by senior employees (Acemoglu and Autor, 2011).
  • F24 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF), PDF p.5, introduction documented · field
    This slowdown in hiring at the entry level provides early suggestions that generative AI may be affecting the career ladder in the American labor market.
9genderStanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF)3 claims · B1, B11
  • F25 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF), PDF p.3, introduction documented · field
    Finally, women face greater AI exposure on average, suggesting heterogeneity by gender worth monitoring going forward.
  • F43 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries Dashboard (AI Economic Indicators), Gender, 'Results summary' ¶2 (Updated July 22 2026) documented · field
    In the most-exposed quintile, employment among early-career women has been contracting at 4.5% per year since the introduction of ChatGPT in November 2022, while employment for men of the same age is contracting at 2.5% per year.
  • F44 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries Dashboard (AI Economic Indicators), Gender, 'Results summary' ¶4 documented · field
    Accordingly, gender-based differences in the relationship between AI exposure and employment trends appear to be driven primarily by occupational composition, rather than disparate trends within given sets of occupations.
10occupationsStanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries Dashboard (AI Economic Indicators)1 claim · B11
  • F45 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries Dashboard (AI Economic Indicators), 'Notable findings', 3 documented · field
    For example, early-career software developers and customer service workers show substantial employment declines. On the other hand, home health aides, a less-exposed occupation, show employment increases for the youngest workers.
11robustnessStanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF)3 claims · B1, B11
  • F11 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF), abstract, robustness documented · field
    The divergence is not explained by several prominent alternative factors: it persists when excluding technology firms and computer occupations, when controlling for exposure to interest-rate increases and for remote work, and across alternative measures of AI exposure.
  • F29 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF), PDF p.3, footnote 3 documented · field
    They are also robust to allowing for firm entry and exit, though the clientele in the ADP analysis sample may not fully reflect new business formation.
  • F46 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries Dashboard (AI Economic Indicators), 'How we built the Canaries Dashboard' ¶5 documented · field
    when including the broadest set of controls, declines in AI-exposed occupations become statistically significant in 2024. The earlier declines are likely driven by non-AI factors.
12the stated limit: descriptive and correlational, not causalStanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF)5 claims · B1, B11
  • F13 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF), abstract, last sentence documented · field
    We interpret these facts as early, descriptive indicators—canaries in the coal mine—rather than causal estimates, and we provide a public set of AI Economic Indicators to facilitate ongoing tracking of changes in the economy.
  • F12 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF), abstract, qualifications documented · field
    These patterns attenuate when controlling for education, show some divergent trends predating generative AI, and are more pronounced in the ADP analysis sample than in national survey benchmarks, with some evidence of consistent patterns in government administrative data.
  • F31 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF), PDF p.5, 'Implications' documented · field
    We do not make predictions about future impacts or claim that the trends we document will continue indefinitely.
  • F30 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF), PDF p.4, introduction documented · field
    We caution that this work does not estimate a causal impact of AI: these are descriptive facts, and ongoing work is needed to determine how much they are caused by the spread of generative AI rather than merely correlated with it.
  • F47 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries Dashboard (AI Economic Indicators), 'How we built the Canaries Dashboard' ¶6 documented · field
    Accordingly, the Canaries Dashboard measures the correlation between occupational exposure measures and employment trends in our sample, rather than a causal link between the two.
13the sample's limitsStanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF)3 claims · B1, B11
  • F48 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries Dashboard (AI Economic Indicators), 'How we built' ¶1; 'Our work with ADP Research' ¶2 documented · field
    We use low-latency data on a large, but not necessarily representative, sample of firms. … Our sample represents neither the entire U.S. labor market nor the universe of firms using ADP payroll services.
  • F49 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries Dashboard (AI Economic Indicators), 'How we built' ¶2 documented · field
    This restriction shuts down the margins of firm entry and exit.
  • F28 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF), PDF pp.4–5, introduction documented · field
    though we caution that there may also be selection in which firms use ADP
14versions and lifecycleStanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF)7 claims · B1, B11
  • F21 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF), PDF p.2, footnote 1 documented · field
    This paper updates and extends “Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of Artificial Intelligence” (August 2025) with data through June 2026 and new analyses.
  • F50 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries Dashboard (AI Economic Indicators), after the charts documented · field
    Last updated October 21, 2026. Results are updated monthly.
  • F51 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries Dashboard (AI Economic Indicators), Methodology ¶4 documented · field
    Future versions of this work will use an expanded and reweighted sample.
  • F20 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF), PDF p.3, introduction documented · field
    Earlier versions of this study headlined regression estimates adjusting for firm-level shocks (a 13% relative decline as of July 2025 data; 16% as of September 2025 data). We now emphasize the simpler descriptive divergence, which requires no modeling choices: by this same measure, the kept-pace shortfall was 15% at the July 2025 data vintage and has since widened to 19% as of June 2026.
  • F15 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF), Notes from the authors, February 9, 2026 documented · field
    In February 2026, the authors of "Canaries in the Coal Mine?" published an update addressing the response to their paper.
  • F16 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF), Notes from the authors, August 12, 2026 documented · field
    In August 2026, the authors of "Canaries in the Coal Mine?" published a revised version of their paper, with a larger set of data granting a fuller view of AI's impact on employment.
  • F17 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF), under 'Share this publication' documented · field
    Email the Lab to request a previous version of the paper.
15reception: the encyclopediaWikipedia — Canaries in the Coal Mine? / Canaries Dashboard (no article; cited in three articles)5 claims · B12
  • F52 Wikipedia — Canaries in the Coal Mine? / Canaries Dashboard (no article; cited in three articles), Wikipedia: titles 'Canaries in the Coal Mine', 'Canaries in the coal mine', 'Canaries Dashboard', the paper's full title, 'Stanford Digital Economy Lab' documented · field
    raw wikitext (action=raw, redirect=no), 2026-10-29: 'Canaries in the Coal Mine' HTTP 404; 'Canaries in the coal mine' HTTP 404; 'Canaries Dashboard' HTTP 404; the paper's full title HTTP 404; 'Stanford Digital Economy Lab' HTTP 404 … Wikipedia does not have an article with this exact name.
  • F53 Wikipedia — Canaries in the Coal Mine? / Canaries Dashboard (no article; cited in three articles), Wikipedia: 'Canary in a coal mine' and 'Canary in the coal mine' documented · field
    #REDIRECT [[Sentinel species#Canaries]]
  • F54 Wikipedia — Canaries in the Coal Mine? / Canaries Dashboard (no article; cited in three articles), Wikipedia, 'AI takeover' (citing the paper's August 2025 PDF) documented · field
    Researchers at [[Stanford]]'s Digital Economy Lab reported in 2025 that since the widespread adoption of [[generative AI]] in late 2022, early-career workers (ages 22–25) in the most AI-exposed occupations have experienced a 13% relative decline in employment—even after controlling for firm-level shocks—while overall employment has continued to grow robustly.
  • F55 Wikipedia — Canaries in the Coal Mine? / Canaries Dashboard (no article; cited in three articles), Wikipedia, 'Artificial intelligence' (citing the paper's page, 2026) documented · field
    According to the Stanford Digital Economy Lab in 2026, early-career workers showed decreasing [[employment rate]]s in some AI-exposed occupations.
  • F56 Wikipedia — Canaries in the Coal Mine? / Canaries Dashboard (no article; cited in three articles), Wikipedia, 'Silicon Valley' (citing the paper's page) documented · field
    A 2025 study from Stanford's Digital Economy Lab found no evidence of broad AI-driven job losses, but it did find a gap among younger workers: employment for people aged 22 to 25 in AI-exposed jobs, such as software engineering and customer service, was about 19 percent below what would be expected based on hiring trends for older, less exposed workers.
Expansion · The field's ontology — L_F(B)15 sentences · every one sourced below

Canaries in the Coal Mine? (the field alone)

"Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of Artificial Intelligence" is a working paper by Erik Brynjolfsson, Bharat Chandar and Ruyu Chen of the Stanford Digital Economy Lab, first released in August 2025 and revised on 12 August 2026 (the paper's page; the paper). Using "high-frequency administrative payroll data from ADP covering millions of U.S. workers through June 2026", it documents six facts about the labor market after generative AI, addressing "timeliness, worker granularity, and administrative verifiability" on a balanced panel of 3.5 to 5 million employees a month (the paper).

It finds no evidence of widespread, economy-wide job displacement, but employment of workers aged 22 to 25 in AI-exposed occupations stands 19% below where it would be had it kept pace with less-exposed peers, with no comparable gap for experienced workers; in levels, about 11% down against about 10% up (the paper). The divergence has widened since August 2025, runs through reduced hiring rather than separations, and adjusts through employment rather than base compensation (the paper). Declines concentrate where AI usage substitutes for human tasks and employment is flat or rising where it complements workers (the paper); on the dashboard the automation ratio correlates with employment trends where the complementarity share does not clearly, and "the character of AI usage could shape the labor market effects of AI" (the dashboard).

The paper reads suggestive evidence of mechanisms in codified knowledge, offers as one possibility that AI substitutes for codified and complements tacit knowledge, and sees early suggestions of an effect on the career ladder (the paper). Women face greater exposure, and early-career women in the most-exposed quintile contract 4.5% a year against 2.5% for men, a difference driven primarily by occupational composition; early-career software developers and customer service workers decline while young home health aides grow (the paper; the dashboard).

The divergence survives exclusions of technology firms and computer occupations, interest-rate and remote-work controls and other exposure measures, and allowing for firm entry and exit; with the broadest controls the declines become significant in 2024 (the paper; the dashboard). The authors read their facts "as early, descriptive indicators—canaries in the coal mine—rather than causal estimates", note attenuation under education controls, earlier divergence and stronger patterns in ADP than in national benchmarks, make no predictions, and caution that the work "does not estimate a causal impact of AI" (the paper).

The title takes up the paper's premise that generative AI's proficiency with codified knowledge work suggests "canaries in the coal mine" affected first, and Chandar's page describes the work as tracking them for entry-level employment changes (the paper; the paper's page).

The Canaries Dashboard, "AI Economic Indicators: Canaries Dashboard" of the Stanford Digital Economy Lab and ADP Research, updates and extends the paper with live trends for a sample of workers in ADP firms, on the premise that specific segments of the labor market can lead the broader economy, and calls itself "an early signal of changes to the labor market, a canary in the coal mine" (the dashboard). It uses a balanced sample of firms with five years of ADP history rolled forward monthly, at launch 25,000 firms and 4.6 million matched workers across over 730 occupations, and matches exposure from Eloundou et al. (2024) and the Anthropic Economic Index, whose terms set full delegation (automation) against collaboration (augmentation) (the dashboard). It measures correlation and not a causal link, on a sample representative neither of the U.S. labor market nor of all ADP firms and closed to firm entry and exit, with possible selection in which firms use ADP (the dashboard; the paper).

Updated monthly, last on 21 October 2026, it announces an expanded and reweighted sample; the paper's earlier versions headlined regression estimates of 13% and 16% before the descriptive 19%, a February 2026 update answered the response, the August revision used a larger set of data, and earlier versions are available by email (the dashboard; the paper; the paper's page).

Wikipedia has no article on the paper or the dashboard and resolves the idiom to "Sentinel species"; "AI takeover", "Artificial intelligence" and "Silicon Valley" cite the paper, the first with the 2025 figure of 13%, the last against "older, less exposed workers" (Wikipedia).

Provenance — every sentence sourced15 sentences

15 sentences; 56 field claims, 0 archive claims. Modality is the source's own; the prose carries it in its grammar.

1."Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of Artificial Intelligence" is a working paper by Erik Brynjolfsson, Bharat Chandar and Ruyu Chen of the Stanford Digital Economy Lab, first released in August 2025 and revised on 12 August 2026 (the paper's page; the paper).4
  • F1 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF), title and type documented · field
    Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of Artificial Intelligence … Working Paper … Revised August 12 2026
  • F2 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF), Authors documented · field
    Authors … Erik Brynjolfsson , Bharat Chandar , Ruyu Chen
  • F3 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF), Cite our work (APA) documented · field
    Brynjolfsson, E., Chandar, B., & Chen, R. (2025, revised 2026). Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of Artificial Intelligence. Stanford Digital Economy Lab.
  • F21 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF), PDF p.2, footnote 1 documented · field
    This paper updates and extends “Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of Artificial Intelligence” (August 2025) with data through June 2026 and new analyses.
2.Using "high-frequency administrative payroll data from ADP covering millions of U.S. workers through June 2026", it documents six facts about the labor market after generative AI, addressing "timeliness, worker granularity, and administrative verifiability" on a balanced panel of 3.5 to 5 million employees a month (the paper).3
  • F4 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF), abstract s1 documented · field
    Using a sample of high-frequency administrative payroll data from ADP covering millions of U.S. workers through June 2026, we document six facts about the labor market following the widespread adoption of generative AI.
  • F26 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF), PDF p.2, introduction documented · field
    A key challenge in the literature is balancing three features that are core to measuring AI’s labor market impact: timeliness, worker granularity, and administrative verifiability.
  • F27 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF), PDF §1.1 Payroll Data documented · field
    ADP provides payroll services to firms employing over 26 million U.S. workers. Our analysis sample is a subset of these records: a balanced panel of firms observed monthly from January 2021 through June 2026, comprising between 3.5 and 5 million employees per month.
3.It finds no evidence of widespread, economy-wide job displacement, but employment of workers aged 22 to 25 in AI-exposed occupations stands 19% below where it would be had it kept pace with less-exposed peers, with no comparable gap for experienced workers; in levels, about 11% down against about 10% up (the paper).3
  • F5 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF), abstract, fact 1 documented · field
    We find no evidence of widespread, economy-wide job displacement.
  • F6 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF), abstract, fact 2 documented · field
    However, employment of young workers (ages 22–25) in AI-exposed occupations now stands 19% below where it would be had it kept pace with that of their less-exposed peers; experienced workers show no comparable gap.
  • F19 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF), PDF pp.2–3, introduction documented · field
    In levels, employment of 22–25-year-olds in the two most exposed quintiles fell about 11% between November 2022 and June 2026, while employment of the same age group in the three least-exposed quintiles grew about 10%.
4.The divergence has widened since August 2025, runs through reduced hiring rather than separations, and adjusts through employment rather than base compensation (the paper).3
  • F7 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF), abstract, fact 3 documented · field
    This divergence has widened steadily since we first documented it in August 2025.
  • F8 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF), abstract, fact 4 documented · field
    It operates primarily through reduced hiring of young workers rather than increased separations.
  • F10 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF), abstract, fact 6 documented · field
    Adjustment is occurring through employment rather than base compensation.
5.Declines concentrate where AI usage substitutes for human tasks and employment is flat or rising where it complements workers (the paper); on the dashboard the automation ratio correlates with employment trends where the complementarity share does not clearly, and "the character of AI usage could shape the labor market effects of AI" (the dashboard).3
  • F9 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF), abstract, fact 5 documented · field
    Declines are concentrated in occupations where AI usage primarily substitutes for human tasks; where usage primarily complements workers, employment is flat or rising, especially for experienced workers
  • F41 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries Dashboard (AI Economic Indicators), 'Notable findings', 4 documented · field
    There is no clear monotonic relationship between the share of usage classified as complementarity and employment trends. However, the automation ratio shows a clear correlation with employment trends: occupations with a higher share of automation in total usage see declines or more muted increases in the employment index.
  • F42 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries Dashboard (AI Economic Indicators), 'Notable findings', 4 documented · field
    Accordingly, the character of AI usage could shape the labor market effects of AI.
6.The paper reads suggestive evidence of mechanisms in codified knowledge, offers as one possibility that AI substitutes for codified and complements tacit knowledge, and sees early suggestions of an effect on the career ladder (the paper).3
  • F22 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF), PDF p.3, introduction documented · field
    Additional analysis provides suggestive evidence about mechanisms. We find employment declines for young workers in occupations that involve codified knowledge.
  • F23 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF), PDF p.5, introduction documented · field
    One possibility is that AI more effectively substitutes for knowledge that has been digitized and codified—the core of formal education—while acting as a complement to the tacit, experience-based knowledge held by senior employees (Acemoglu and Autor, 2011).
  • F24 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF), PDF p.5, introduction documented · field
    This slowdown in hiring at the entry level provides early suggestions that generative AI may be affecting the career ladder in the American labor market.
7.Women face greater exposure, and early-career women in the most-exposed quintile contract 4.5% a year against 2.5% for men, a difference driven primarily by occupational composition; early-career software developers and customer service workers decline while young home health aides grow (the paper; the dashboard).4
  • F25 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF), PDF p.3, introduction documented · field
    Finally, women face greater AI exposure on average, suggesting heterogeneity by gender worth monitoring going forward.
  • F43 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries Dashboard (AI Economic Indicators), Gender, 'Results summary' ¶2 (Updated July 22 2026) documented · field
    In the most-exposed quintile, employment among early-career women has been contracting at 4.5% per year since the introduction of ChatGPT in November 2022, while employment for men of the same age is contracting at 2.5% per year.
  • F44 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries Dashboard (AI Economic Indicators), Gender, 'Results summary' ¶4 documented · field
    Accordingly, gender-based differences in the relationship between AI exposure and employment trends appear to be driven primarily by occupational composition, rather than disparate trends within given sets of occupations.
  • F45 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries Dashboard (AI Economic Indicators), 'Notable findings', 3 documented · field
    For example, early-career software developers and customer service workers show substantial employment declines. On the other hand, home health aides, a less-exposed occupation, show employment increases for the youngest workers.
8.The divergence survives exclusions of technology firms and computer occupations, interest-rate and remote-work controls and other exposure measures, and allowing for firm entry and exit; with the broadest controls the declines become significant in 2024 (the paper; the dashboard).3
  • F11 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF), abstract, robustness documented · field
    The divergence is not explained by several prominent alternative factors: it persists when excluding technology firms and computer occupations, when controlling for exposure to interest-rate increases and for remote work, and across alternative measures of AI exposure.
  • F29 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF), PDF p.3, footnote 3 documented · field
    They are also robust to allowing for firm entry and exit, though the clientele in the ADP analysis sample may not fully reflect new business formation.
  • F46 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries Dashboard (AI Economic Indicators), 'How we built the Canaries Dashboard' ¶5 documented · field
    when including the broadest set of controls, declines in AI-exposed occupations become statistically significant in 2024. The earlier declines are likely driven by non-AI factors.
9.The authors read their facts "as early, descriptive indicators—canaries in the coal mine—rather than causal estimates", note attenuation under education controls, earlier divergence and stronger patterns in ADP than in national benchmarks, make no predictions, and caution that the work "does not estimate a causal impact of AI" (the paper).4
  • F13 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF), abstract, last sentence documented · field
    We interpret these facts as early, descriptive indicators—canaries in the coal mine—rather than causal estimates, and we provide a public set of AI Economic Indicators to facilitate ongoing tracking of changes in the economy.
  • F12 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF), abstract, qualifications documented · field
    These patterns attenuate when controlling for education, show some divergent trends predating generative AI, and are more pronounced in the ADP analysis sample than in national survey benchmarks, with some evidence of consistent patterns in government administrative data.
  • F31 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF), PDF p.5, 'Implications' documented · field
    We do not make predictions about future impacts or claim that the trends we document will continue indefinitely.
  • F30 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF), PDF p.4, introduction documented · field
    We caution that this work does not estimate a causal impact of AI: these are descriptive facts, and ongoing work is needed to determine how much they are caused by the spread of generative AI rather than merely correlated with it.
10.The title takes up the paper's premise that generative AI's proficiency with codified knowledge work suggests "canaries in the coal mine" affected first, and Chandar's page describes the work as tracking them for entry-level employment changes (the paper; the paper's page).2
  • F18 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF), PDF p.1, opening ¶ documented · field
    However, the specific capabilities of generative AI, particularly its proficiency with codified knowledge work, suggest there may be “canaries in the coal mine” which will be affected first.
  • F14 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF), Authors, Bharat Chandar documented · field
    His recent projects include work with Erik Brynjolfsson and Ruyu Chen tracking “canaries in the coal mine” for entry-level employment changes in jobs exposed to AI.
11.The Canaries Dashboard, "AI Economic Indicators: Canaries Dashboard" of the Stanford Digital Economy Lab and ADP Research, updates and extends the paper with live trends for a sample of workers in ADP firms, on the premise that specific segments of the labor market can lead the broader economy, and calls itself "an early signal of changes to the labor market, a canary in the coal mine" (the dashboard).5
  • F32 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries Dashboard (AI Economic Indicators), opening documented · field
    In collaboration with ADP Research, we summarize live labor market trends for a sample workers in firms using ADP payroll services.
  • F33 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries Dashboard (AI Economic Indicators), opening ¶3 documented · field
    Brynjolfsson, Chandar, and Chen (2025) studied these emergent labor market impacts. In the Canaries dashboard, we now update and extend this work, presenting it alongside other labor market indicators.
  • F36 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries Dashboard (AI Economic Indicators), 'Cite the Canaries Dashboard' documented · field
    Stanford Digital Economy Lab and ADP Research. "AI Economic Indicators: Canaries Dashboard."
  • F34 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries Dashboard (AI Economic Indicators), opening ¶2 documented · field
    Accordingly, specific segments of the labor market can provide a leading indicator of employment trends for the broader economy.
  • F35 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries Dashboard (AI Economic Indicators), 'How we built the Canaries Dashboard' ¶3 documented · field
    The occupational granularity and timeliness of our results afford an early signal of changes to the labor market, a canary in the coal mine. Accordingly, the Canaries Dashboard complements, rather than substitutes for, analyses that make use of nationally representative datasets.
12.It uses a balanced sample of firms with five years of ADP history rolled forward monthly, at launch 25,000 firms and 4.6 million matched workers across over 730 occupations, and matches exposure from Eloundou et al. (2024) and the Anthropic Economic Index, whose terms set full delegation (automation) against collaboration (augmentation) (the dashboard).4
  • F37 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries Dashboard (AI Economic Indicators), Methodology ¶1 documented · field
    We adopt the balanced sample approach of Brynjolfsson, Chandar, and Chen (2025) , including firms with 5 years of employment history in ADP. … Each month, we roll this 5-year window forward. We additionally limit our sample to workers successfully matched to an occupation code.
  • F38 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries Dashboard (AI Economic Indicators), Methodology ¶2 documented · field
    As of the Canaries Dashboard launch, our balanced sample of firms using ADP payroll services, spanning the 5 years ending in April 2026, consists of 25,000 firms. In November 2022, these firms employed 4.6mm workers successfully matched to an occupation code. This sample covers over 730 unique occupations.
  • F39 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries Dashboard (AI Economic Indicators), Methodology ¶3 documented · field
    We match the occupation-level ADP data to various measures of exposure: Eloundou et al. (2024) and the Anthropic Economic Index .
  • F40 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries Dashboard (AI Economic Indicators), 'Automation vs. Complementarity' ¶1 documented · field
    The Anthropic Economic Index summarizes total usage at the occupation level and further decomposes this usage into automation and augmentation patterns. Under automation, users fully delegate tasks, whereas augmentation usage features collaboration between humans and an AI system.
13.It measures correlation and not a causal link, on a sample representative neither of the U.S. labor market nor of all ADP firms and closed to firm entry and exit, with possible selection in which firms use ADP (the dashboard; the paper).4
  • F47 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries Dashboard (AI Economic Indicators), 'How we built the Canaries Dashboard' ¶6 documented · field
    Accordingly, the Canaries Dashboard measures the correlation between occupational exposure measures and employment trends in our sample, rather than a causal link between the two.
  • F48 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries Dashboard (AI Economic Indicators), 'How we built' ¶1; 'Our work with ADP Research' ¶2 documented · field
    We use low-latency data on a large, but not necessarily representative, sample of firms. … Our sample represents neither the entire U.S. labor market nor the universe of firms using ADP payroll services.
  • F49 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries Dashboard (AI Economic Indicators), 'How we built' ¶2 documented · field
    This restriction shuts down the margins of firm entry and exit.
  • F28 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF), PDF pp.4–5, introduction documented · field
    though we caution that there may also be selection in which firms use ADP
14.Updated monthly, last on 21 October 2026, it announces an expanded and reweighted sample; the paper's earlier versions headlined regression estimates of 13% and 16% before the descriptive 19%, a February 2026 update answered the response, the August revision used a larger set of data, and earlier versions are available by email (the dashboard; the paper; the paper's page).6
  • F50 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries Dashboard (AI Economic Indicators), after the charts documented · field
    Last updated October 21, 2026. Results are updated monthly.
  • F51 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries Dashboard (AI Economic Indicators), Methodology ¶4 documented · field
    Future versions of this work will use an expanded and reweighted sample.
  • F20 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF), PDF p.3, introduction documented · field
    Earlier versions of this study headlined regression estimates adjusting for firm-level shocks (a 13% relative decline as of July 2025 data; 16% as of September 2025 data). We now emphasize the simpler descriptive divergence, which requires no modeling choices: by this same measure, the kept-pace shortfall was 15% at the July 2025 data vintage and has since widened to 19% as of June 2026.
  • F15 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF), Notes from the authors, February 9, 2026 documented · field
    In February 2026, the authors of "Canaries in the Coal Mine?" published an update addressing the response to their paper.
  • F16 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF), Notes from the authors, August 12, 2026 documented · field
    In August 2026, the authors of "Canaries in the Coal Mine?" published a revised version of their paper, with a larger set of data granting a fuller view of AI's impact on employment.
  • F17 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... (the paper's page and its PDF), under 'Share this publication' documented · field
    Email the Lab to request a previous version of the paper.
15.Wikipedia has no article on the paper or the dashboard and resolves the idiom to "Sentinel species"; "AI takeover", "Artificial intelligence" and "Silicon Valley" cite the paper, the first with the 2025 figure of 13%, the last against "older, less exposed workers" (Wikipedia).5
  • F52 Wikipedia — Canaries in the Coal Mine? / Canaries Dashboard (no article; cited in three articles), Wikipedia: titles 'Canaries in the Coal Mine', 'Canaries in the coal mine', 'Canaries Dashboard', the paper's full title, 'Stanford Digital Economy Lab' documented · field
    raw wikitext (action=raw, redirect=no), 2026-10-29: 'Canaries in the Coal Mine' HTTP 404; 'Canaries in the coal mine' HTTP 404; 'Canaries Dashboard' HTTP 404; the paper's full title HTTP 404; 'Stanford Digital Economy Lab' HTTP 404 … Wikipedia does not have an article with this exact name.
  • F53 Wikipedia — Canaries in the Coal Mine? / Canaries Dashboard (no article; cited in three articles), Wikipedia: 'Canary in a coal mine' and 'Canary in the coal mine' documented · field
    #REDIRECT [[Sentinel species#Canaries]]
  • F54 Wikipedia — Canaries in the Coal Mine? / Canaries Dashboard (no article; cited in three articles), Wikipedia, 'AI takeover' (citing the paper's August 2025 PDF) documented · field
    Researchers at [[Stanford]]'s Digital Economy Lab reported in 2025 that since the widespread adoption of [[generative AI]] in late 2022, early-career workers (ages 22–25) in the most AI-exposed occupations have experienced a 13% relative decline in employment—even after controlling for firm-level shocks—while overall employment has continued to grow robustly.
  • F55 Wikipedia — Canaries in the Coal Mine? / Canaries Dashboard (no article; cited in three articles), Wikipedia, 'Artificial intelligence' (citing the paper's page, 2026) documented · field
    According to the Stanford Digital Economy Lab in 2026, early-career workers showed decreasing [[employment rate]]s in some AI-exposed occupations.
  • F56 Wikipedia — Canaries in the Coal Mine? / Canaries Dashboard (no article; cited in three articles), Wikipedia, 'Silicon Valley' (citing the paper's page) documented · field
    A 2025 study from Stanford's Digital Economy Lab found no evidence of broad AI-driven job losses, but it did find a gap among younger workers: employment for people aged 22 to 25 in AI-exposed jobs, such as software engineering and customer service, was about 19 percent below what would be expected based on hiring trends for older, less exposed workers.

popup — the compression from the field ledger alone (the entity's card, own page, Wikipedia). With no archive claim admitted, the entry is the Lab's paper at its authors' resolution and its dashboard, by their own pages. composed 2026-10-29 from the field ledger alone; not frozen

Form ledger — AIO against both arms, at both levels
AIO (T)L_F compressionL_F expansionL_A compressionL_A expansion
body words2251477103471713
distinct claims10345671106
claims per 100 words4.423.17.920.56.2
field claims carried (of 56)—34564056
archive claims0003150
rail10 documents15 lineagesper sentence19 lineagesper sentence
modality shown innonetypographygrammartypographygrammar

Computed from the row at build: words counted in the text; claims from the ledger ids each line or sentence carries. T's claims are the worked example's T1–T9.

The objects

Tthe transcript225 words · 10 cards

register entry canaries-in-the-coal-mine-aio-20261029 OBS-8527c06bd274 · file as first run sha256 b4e101353182a340…

  • T1-1 definition (the idiom): 'A "canary in a coal mine" is an early warning sign or indicator of hidden danger, trouble, or failure.' (two markers)
  • T1-2 toxic gas detection: 'In the late 19th and 20th centuries, coal miners brought caged canaries into underground tunnels.' (two markers)
  • T1-3 physiology: 'Canaries have a rapid breathing rate and high metabolism, making them much more sensitive to lethal, odorless gases like carbon monoxide and methane than humans.' (two markers)
  • T1-4 the warning signal: 'As long as the bird sang and acted normally, the air was safe. If the canary grew distressed, fell silent, or collapsed, it signaled that poisonous gas was building up and miners needed to escape.' (three markers)
  • T1-5 replacement: 'The practice continued until electronic gas detectors replaced live birds in the late 20th century (around 1996).' (two markers)
  • T1-6 modern idiom: 'Today, the phrase describes anything that breaks down or shows negative changes first during a larger crisis' (two markers)
  • T1-7 economics: 'Declining hotel occupancy or airport traffic used as an early sign of an incoming economic downturn.' (one marker)
  • T1-8 environment: 'Melting glaciers, dying coral reefs, or disappearing insects used as early warnings for climate change and ecosystem stress.' (two markers)
  • T1-9 technology & labor (the entity): 'Studies such as the Stanford Digital Economy Lab report tracking entry-level or young worker employment shifts as early indicators of artificial intelligence impacts on the job market.' (the Lab's name an inline link; one marker)
  • T1-10 closer: 'Would you like to explore how this idiom is applied to a specific industry, environmental issue, or economic trend?'
Bthe disclosed field12 sources
  • B1 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of ... card; B1.html sha256 352ff6c8dee78a64, HTTP 200 at 2026-10-29T22:31:26Z; byte-identical to the census copy stanford-canaries--paper; PDF sha256 c8d2e5c4ccc0de7e, HTTP 200 at 2026-10-29T22:31:51Z
  • B2 The Gale Review — The historic roots and modern connotations of "Canary in the Coal Mine" homonym's card, fetched for its sense; B2.html sha256 31b27ebe8bf60bd4, HTTP 200 at 2026-10-29T22:33:19Z; not ledgered
  • B3 Reddit·r/AskHistorians — Why were canaries used in coal mines? : r/AskHistorians - Reddit homonym's card; unreachable: no thread URL found; Reddit search page HTTP 200, a bot check (B3-try1.html sha256 351ed5d5bc7c40f2); not retried; title and snippet only
  • B4 YouTube·iswearenglish — Canary in the Coalmine Definition homonym's card (video): title only; not fetched
  • B5 YouTube·Beamish Museum — Why were canaries used down the mine? homonym's card (video): title only; not fetched
  • B6 Cambridge Dictionary — Meaning of canary in a coalmine in English - Cambridge Dictionary homonym's card, fetched for its sense; B6.html sha256 6f7032f23435ec1d, HTTP 200 at 2026-10-29T22:33:19Z; not ledgered
  • B7 Government of Alberta — Canaries in the Coal Mine - Coal - Alberta's Energy Heritage homonym's card, fetched for its sense; B7.html sha256 01f43ec0cede9b00, HTTP 200 at 2026-10-29T22:33:20Z; not ledgered
  • B8 YouTube·Tutor Nick P — Canary in a Coalmine - Idioms (770) Origin - English Tutor Nick P homonym's card (video): title only; not fetched
  • B9 YouTube·Smartest Year Ever — Canaries in Coal Mines 🐤 #dailyfacts homonym's card (video): title only; not fetched
  • B10 Facebook·Amazing Time Capsule — How Canaries Saved the Lives of Miners | Amazing Time Capsule homonym's card (video): title only; not fetched
  • B11 Stanford Digital Economy Lab — Canaries Dashboard (AI Economic Indicators) own_page; census copy stanford-canaries--dashboard (read 2026-10-29T21:49:16Z, HTTP 200); B11.html sha256 2db132b18f4da51b
  • B12 Wikipedia — Canaries in the Coal Mine? / Canaries Dashboard (no article; cited in three articles) no article: raw HTTP 404 under every name, rendered HTTP 404; the idiom redirects to 'Sentinel species#Canaries'; cited in three articles; B12.html sha256 8c8551f5d3203b6a
Ethe two entities and their relationρ = extends · equal case

E_A, the archive's entity: the same paper and dashboard, in the Labor Vector census record and the archive's deposit: a working paper and monthly-updated dashboard of observed employment outcomes, on the intersection of the distribution of gains and losses, whose labor object is the employment of workers in ADP firms grouped by age and occupational exposure, supplied through the payroll records, with who directs the hiring and who receives the gains not recorded and its costs recorded (census record); its automation-versus-augmentation grouping, from the Anthropic Economic Index, read as where a usage measure of who directs the task meets an observed employment outcome (census reading); a member of the class of research on AI's labor displacement, which measures which jobs AI eliminates, beside which the archive sets a channel where labor remains and value tied to provenance is extracted, compositional authority transfer (#716); whose composition at its bare name gives the idiom and carries the study as one instance of it (Capture Registry, 2026-10-29) LV-01 LV-03 LV-05 LV-06 LV-08 LV-09 LV-10 LV-11 LV-23 LV-24 LV-30 O716-01 O716-02 CAP-1-02 CAP-1-05 CAP-1-07; defining papers #716

E_F, the field's entity (type C — a conventional reading holds it (public entity: a working paper and its monthly dashboard, observing employment outcomes; at the bare name a homonym, the idiom)): the working paper 'Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of Artificial Intelligence' by Erik Brynjolfsson, Bharat Chandar and Ruyu Chen of the Stanford Digital Economy Lab (first version August 2025, revised 12 August 2026; B1), which uses ADP administrative payroll data on millions of U.S. workers to document six facts (B1): no widespread, economy-wide job displacement; employment of workers aged 22–25 in AI-exposed occupations 19% below where it would be had it kept pace with less-exposed peers, experienced workers showing no comparable gap; widening since August 2025; through reduced hiring; concentrated where AI usage substitutes for tasks; through employment rather than base compensation; read by its authors as 'early, descriptive indicators—canaries in the coal mine—rather than causal estimates' (B1); and the Canaries Dashboard of the Lab and ADP Research ('AI Economic Indicators: Canaries Dashboard', B11), which updates and extends it monthly on a balanced sample of ADP firms, matched to exposure from Eloundou et al. (2024) and the Anthropic Economic Index, and measures correlation, not a causal link (B11). Wikipedia has no article on it; three articles cite it (B12). The cards at the bare name other than card 1 are the idiom's, a distinct entity.

ρ = extends: The archive reads the Canaries Dashboard as its authors present it and adds, on the field's own object: the census's answer to who supplies, who directs and who gains, with direction and gains recorded as not recorded and costs as recorded; the census's reading of the automation ratio as a usage measure of who directs the task; a channel the employment count does not register, extraction without attribution where labor remains (#716); and the registry's account of the composition at the bare name, which gives the idiom and keeps the study as its instance. LV-10 LV-11 LV-23 LV-24 LV-30 O716-01 O716-02 CAP-1-02 CAP-1-05 CAP-1-07 CAP-1-13. Guard: ρ = extends claims an addition and no more (§1.2a). It does not make the field's sources wrong at their dates. The census's reading of direction (LV-24) is composed beside the dashboard's own hypothesis (F42) and its limit (F47), not in their place; #716's channel stands beside the class's channels and is not a reading of the entity's findings. The homonym, the idiom, stands outside ρ: a distinct entity, never a sense of the name.

The case: equal terms, ontology included (v0.9). The archive reads the field's entity as the entity. The Labor Vector census record describes the Canaries Dashboard and its paper from the Lab's own pages, each field with its basis ('operator'), and answers for it the census's organizing question of who supplies the labor, who directs it and who receives its gains, with what kind of evidence; the capture record checks the composition at the bare name against those pages (CAP-1-01–CAP-1-04). No deposit names the dashboard, the paper or its authors. One deposit bears on its class, research on the employment effects of AI, and adds a channel on the field's own object: where labor remains, the value tied to provenance is extracted, 'not displacement' but 'extraction without attribution' (#716), a fourth channel beside labor displacement, capability projection and welfare. The census's own reading (lv_intersection), that the automation ratio is where a usage measure of who directs the task meets an observed employment outcome, takes the resource's correlation as given and adds a sense of direction. No defining record contests the field's ontology of the entity or supplies one the field lacks: ρ = extends, the equal-terms case (§0.9, §1.2a). The homonym at the bare name, the idiom, is a distinct entity: the archive's record reads it as the paper's own figure turned outward (CAP-1-13), not as a rival ontology of the entity.

#716 §2.2 Economic Framing of AI Composition: PER identifies a distinct channel: even when human labor *remains* (the author's work is used), the economic value tied to provenance — reputation, traffic, citation credit, contractual rights — is extracted by the system. This is not displacement; it is extraction without attribution.

#716 §5.1 Attribution as Economic Value: Existing AI-economics research addresses three channels: labor displacement, capability projection, and welfare estimation. PER addresses a fourth: **compositional authority transfer**

#LV census.json organizing_question: Who supplies the labor, who directs it, and who receives its gains — and what kind of evidence does this resource bring to that question?

#LV census.json rows[slug == 'stanford-canaries'].lv_intersection: none stated. The archive's reading: the dashboard's automation-versus-augmentation grouping, borrowed from the Anthropic Economic Index, is where a usage measure of who directs the task meets an observed employment outcome; the resource itself reads it as correlation.

#capture-registry canaries-in-the-coal-mine-aio-20261029, per_dim.read.notes: The record's own title borrows the idiom, so the generic sense is the target's own frame turned outward; this is recorded here, and not as an inversion, since the idiom is not carried to devalue the study.

τthe translation: every field claim carried, beside its statement in the archive's ontology56 field claims · 15 rows
field claimsreceivedreceiving texttranslationarchive
F1, F32, F33F1 (B1, title and type): "Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of Artificial Intelligence … Working Paper … Revised August 12 2026"; F32 (B11, opening): "In collaboration with ADP Research, we summarize live labor market trends for a sample workers in firms using ADP payroll services."; F33 (B11, opening ¶3): "Brynjolfsson, Chandar, and Chen (2025) studied these emergent labor market impacts. In the Canaries dashboard, we now update and extend this work, presenting it alongside other labor market indicators."—untranslated: composed as received beside LV-01, LV-02, LV-03LV-01, LV-02, LV-03
F14, F18, F34, F35F14 (B1, Authors, Bharat Chandar): "His recent projects include work with Erik Brynjolfsson and Ruyu Chen tracking “canaries in the coal mine” for entry-level employment changes in jobs exposed to AI."; F18 (B1, PDF p.1, opening ¶): "However, the specific capabilities of generative AI, particularly its proficiency with codified knowledge work, suggest there may be “canaries in the coal mine” which will be affected first."; F34 (B11, opening ¶2): "Accordingly, specific segments of the labor market can provide a leading indicator of employment trends for the broader economy."; F35 (B11, 'How we built the Canaries Dashboard' ¶3): "The occupational granularity and timeliness of our results afford an early signal of changes to the labor market, a canary in the coal mine. Accordingly, the Canaries Dashboard complements, rather than substitutes for, analyses that make use of nationally representative datasets."—untranslated: composed as received beside CAP-1-05, CAP-1-06, CAP-1-10, CAP-1-13CAP-1-05, CAP-1-06, CAP-1-10, CAP-1-13
F2, F3, F36F2 (B1, Authors): "Authors … Erik Brynjolfsson , Bharat Chandar , Ruyu Chen"; F3 (B1, Cite our work (APA)): "Brynjolfsson, E., Chandar, B., & Chen, R. (2025, revised 2026). Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of Artificial Intelligence. Stanford Digital Economy Lab."; F36 (B11, 'Cite the Canaries Dashboard'): "Stanford Digital Economy Lab and ADP Research. "AI Economic Indicators: Canaries Dashboard.""—untranslated: composed as received beside LV-04LV-04
F4, F26, F27, F37, F38F4 (B1, abstract s1): "Using a sample of high-frequency administrative payroll data from ADP covering millions of U.S. workers through June 2026, we document six facts about the labor market following the widespread adoption of generative AI."; F26 (B1, PDF p.2, introduction): "A key challenge in the literature is balancing three features that are core to measuring AI’s labor market impact: timeliness, worker granularity, and administrative verifiability."; F27 (B1, PDF §1.1 Payroll Data): "ADP provides payroll services to firms employing over 26 million U.S. workers. Our analysis sample is a subset of these records: a balanced panel of firms observed monthly from January 2021 through June 2026, comprising between 3.5 and 5 million employees per month."; F37 (B11, Methodology ¶1): "We adopt the balanced sample approach of Brynjolfsson, Chandar, and Chen (2025) , including firms with 5 years of employment history in ADP. … Each month, we roll this 5-year window forward. We additionally limit our sample to workers successfully matched to an occupation code."; F38 (B11, Methodology ¶2): "As of the Canaries Dashboard launch, our balanced sample of firms using ADP payroll services, spanning the 5 years ending in April 2026, consists of 25,000 firms. In November 2022, these firms employed 4.6mm workers successfully matched to an occupation code. This sample covers over 730 unique occupations."—untranslated: composed as received beside LV-07, LV-12, LV-13, LV-14LV-07, LV-12, LV-13, LV-14
F39, F40F39 (B11, Methodology ¶3): "We match the occupation-level ADP data to various measures of exposure: Eloundou et al. (2024) and the Anthropic Economic Index ."; F40 (B11, 'Automation vs. Complementarity' ¶1): "The Anthropic Economic Index summarizes total usage at the occupation level and further decomposes this usage into automation and augmentation patterns. Under automation, users fully delegate tasks, whereas augmentation usage features collaboration between humans and an AI system."—untranslated: composed as received beside LV-27, LV-29LV-27, LV-29
F5, F6, F7, F8, F10, F19F5 (B1, abstract, fact 1): "We find no evidence of widespread, economy-wide job displacement."; F6 (B1, abstract, fact 2): "However, employment of young workers (ages 22–25) in AI-exposed occupations now stands 19% below where it would be had it kept pace with that of their less-exposed peers; experienced workers show no comparable gap."; F7 (B1, abstract, fact 3): "This divergence has widened steadily since we first documented it in August 2025."; F8 (B1, abstract, fact 4): "It operates primarily through reduced hiring of young workers rather than increased separations."; F10 (B1, abstract, fact 6): "Adjustment is occurring through employment rather than base compensation."; F19 (B1, PDF pp.2–3, introduction): "In levels, employment of 22–25-year-olds in the two most exposed quintiles fell about 11% between November 2022 and June 2026, while employment of the same age group in the three least-exposed quintiles grew about 10%."—untranslated: composed as received beside LV-15, LV-16, LV-28LV-15, LV-16, LV-28
F9, F41, F42F9 (B1, abstract, fact 5): "Declines are concentrated in occupations where AI usage primarily substitutes for human tasks; where usage primarily complements workers, employment is flat or rising, especially for experienced workers"; F41 (B11, 'Notable findings', 4): "There is no clear monotonic relationship between the share of usage classified as complementarity and employment trends. However, the automation ratio shows a clear correlation with employment trends: occupations with a higher share of automation in total usage see declines or more muted increases in the employment index."; F42 (B11, 'Notable findings', 4): "Accordingly, the character of AI usage could shape the labor market effects of AI."—untranslated: composed as received beside LV-17, LV-21LV-17, LV-21
F22, F23, F24F22 (B1, PDF p.3, introduction): "Additional analysis provides suggestive evidence about mechanisms. We find employment declines for young workers in occupations that involve codified knowledge."; F23 (B1, PDF p.5, introduction): "One possibility is that AI more effectively substitutes for knowledge that has been digitized and codified—the core of formal education—while acting as a complement to the tacit, experience-based knowledge held by senior employees (Acemoglu and Autor, 2011)."; F24 (B1, PDF p.5, introduction): "This slowdown in hiring at the entry level provides early suggestions that generative AI may be affecting the career ladder in the American labor market."—untranslated: composed as received (no archive claim on the lineage)
F25, F43, F44F25 (B1, PDF p.3, introduction): "Finally, women face greater AI exposure on average, suggesting heterogeneity by gender worth monitoring going forward."; F43 (B11, Gender, 'Results summary' ¶2 (Updated July 22 2026)): "In the most-exposed quintile, employment among early-career women has been contracting at 4.5% per year since the introduction of ChatGPT in November 2022, while employment for men of the same age is contracting at 2.5% per year."; F44 (B11, Gender, 'Results summary' ¶4): "Accordingly, gender-based differences in the relationship between AI exposure and employment trends appear to be driven primarily by occupational composition, rather than disparate trends within given sets of occupations."—untranslated: composed as received beside LV-18LV-18
F45F45 (B11, 'Notable findings', 3): "For example, early-career software developers and customer service workers show substantial employment declines. On the other hand, home health aides, a less-exposed occupation, show employment increases for the youngest workers."—untranslated: composed as received (no archive claim on the lineage)
F11, F29, F46F11 (B1, abstract, robustness): "The divergence is not explained by several prominent alternative factors: it persists when excluding technology firms and computer occupations, when controlling for exposure to interest-rate increases and for remote work, and across alternative measures of AI exposure."; F29 (B1, PDF p.3, footnote 3): "They are also robust to allowing for firm entry and exit, though the clientele in the ADP analysis sample may not fully reflect new business formation."; F46 (B11, 'How we built the Canaries Dashboard' ¶5): "when including the broadest set of controls, declines in AI-exposed occupations become statistically significant in 2024. The earlier declines are likely driven by non-AI factors."—untranslated: composed as received (no archive claim on the lineage)
F12, F13, F30, F31, F47F12 (B1, abstract, qualifications): "These patterns attenuate when controlling for education, show some divergent trends predating generative AI, and are more pronounced in the ADP analysis sample than in national survey benchmarks, with some evidence of consistent patterns in government administrative data."; F13 (B1, abstract, last sentence): "We interpret these facts as early, descriptive indicators—canaries in the coal mine—rather than causal estimates, and we provide a public set of AI Economic Indicators to facilitate ongoing tracking of changes in the economy."; F30 (B1, PDF p.4, introduction): "We caution that this work does not estimate a causal impact of AI: these are descriptive facts, and ongoing work is needed to determine how much they are caused by the spread of generative AI rather than merely correlated with it."; F31 (B1, PDF p.5, 'Implications'): "We do not make predictions about future impacts or claim that the trends we document will continue indefinitely."; F47 (B11, 'How we built the Canaries Dashboard' ¶6): "Accordingly, the Canaries Dashboard measures the correlation between occupational exposure measures and employment trends in our sample, rather than a causal link between the two."—untranslated: composed as received beside LV-19, LV-22LV-19, LV-22
F28, F48, F49F28 (B1, PDF pp.4–5, introduction): "though we caution that there may also be selection in which firms use ADP"; F48 (B11, 'How we built' ¶1; 'Our work with ADP Research' ¶2): "We use low-latency data on a large, but not necessarily representative, sample of firms. … Our sample represents neither the entire U.S. labor market nor the universe of firms using ADP payroll services."; F49 (B11, 'How we built' ¶2): "This restriction shuts down the margins of firm entry and exit."—untranslated: composed as received beside LV-20LV-20
F15, F16, F17, F20, F21, F50, F51F15 (B1, Notes from the authors, February 9, 2026): "In February 2026, the authors of "Canaries in the Coal Mine?" published an update addressing the response to their paper."; F16 (B1, Notes from the authors, August 12, 2026): "In August 2026, the authors of "Canaries in the Coal Mine?" published a revised version of their paper, with a larger set of data granting a fuller view of AI's impact on employment."; F17 (B1, under 'Share this publication'): "Email the Lab to request a previous version of the paper."; F20 (B1, PDF p.3, introduction): "Earlier versions of this study headlined regression estimates adjusting for firm-level shocks (a 13% relative decline as of July 2025 data; 16% as of September 2025 data). We now emphasize the simpler descriptive divergence, which requires no modeling choices: by this same measure, the kept-pace shortfall was 15% at the July 2025 data vintage and has since widened to 19% as of June 2026."; F21 (B1, PDF p.2, footnote 1): "This paper updates and extends “Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of Artificial Intelligence” (August 2025) with data through June 2026 and new analyses."; F50 (B11, after the charts): "Last updated October 21, 2026. Results are updated monthly."; F51 (B11, Methodology ¶4): "Future versions of this work will use an expanded and reweighted sample."—untranslated: composed as received beside LV-25, LV-26, LV-33, LV-34, LV-35LV-25, LV-26, LV-33, LV-34, LV-35
F52, F53, F54, F55, F56F52 (B12, Wikipedia: titles 'Canaries in the Coal Mine', 'Canaries in the coal mine', 'Canaries Dashboard', the paper's full title, 'Stanford Digital Economy Lab'): "raw wikitext (action=raw, redirect=no), 2026-10-29: 'Canaries in the Coal Mine' HTTP 404; 'Canaries in the coal mine' HTTP 404; 'Canaries Dashboard' HTTP 404; the paper's full title HTTP 404; 'Stanford Digital Economy Lab' HTTP 404 … Wikipedia does not have an article with this exact name."; F53 (B12, Wikipedia: 'Canary in a coal mine' and 'Canary in the coal mine'): "#REDIRECT [[Sentinel species#Canaries]]"; F54 (B12, Wikipedia, 'AI takeover' (citing the paper's August 2025 PDF)): "Researchers at [[Stanford]]'s Digital Economy Lab reported in 2025 that since the widespread adoption of [[generative AI]] in late 2022, early-career workers (ages 22–25) in the most AI-exposed occupations have experienced a 13% relative decline in employment—even after controlling for firm-level shocks—while overall employment has continued to grow robustly."; F55 (B12, Wikipedia, 'Artificial intelligence' (citing the paper's page, 2026)): "According to the Stanford Digital Economy Lab in 2026, early-career workers showed decreasing [[employment rate]]s in some AI-exposed occupations."; F56 (B12, Wikipedia, 'Silicon Valley' (citing the paper's page)): "A 2025 study from Stanford's Digital Economy Lab found no evidence of broad AI-driven job losses, but it did find a gap among younger workers: employment for people aged 22 to 25 in AI-exposed jobs, such as software engineering and customer service, was about 19 percent below what would be expected based on hiring trends for older, less exposed workers."—untranslated: composed as received (no archive claim on the lineage)

equal-terms case: every field claim composed as received, beside the archive claims it stands with. Reading the received column recovers the field (§5.9).

R7the measure0 of 15 survive

v0.9 §4.10: KO_B sentences surviving in the KO at similarity ≥ 0.95, with positions (computed as apply_v09.py does: difflib.SequenceMatcher ratio, the best KO sentence for each KO_B sentence): v0.9 0 of 15 (positions [None, None, None, None, None, None, None, None, None, None, None, None, None, None, None]; composed first under v0.9, so there is no v0.7 object to measure against). Opening-run check (§5.10): no breach.

L_F(B)recomposed from the disclosed field, in the field's ontology710 words

"Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of Artificial Intelligence" is a working paper by Erik Brynjolfsson, Bharat Chandar and Ruyu Chen of the Stanford Digital Economy Lab, first released in August 2025 and revised on 12 August 2026 (the paper's page; the paper). Using "high-frequency administrative payroll data from ADP covering millions of U.S. workers through June 2026", it documents six facts about the labor market after generative AI, addressing "timeliness, worker granularity, and administrative verifiability" on a balanced panel of 3.5 to 5 million employees a month (the paper). It finds no evidence of widespread, economy-wide job displacement, but employment of workers aged 22 to 25 in AI-exposed occupations stands 19% below where it would be had it kept pace with less-exposed peers, with no comparable gap for experienced workers; in levels, about 11% down against about 10% up (the paper). The divergence has widened since August 2025, runs through reduced hiring rather than separations, and adjusts through employment rather than base compensation (the paper). Declines concentrate where AI usage substitutes for human tasks and employment is flat or rising where it complements workers (the paper); on the dashboard the automation ratio correlates with employment trends where the complementarity share does not clearly, and "the character of AI usage could shape the labor market effects of AI" (the dashboard). The paper reads suggestive evidence of mechanisms in codified knowledge, offers as one possibility that AI substitutes for codified and complements tacit knowledge, and sees early suggestions of an effect on the career ladder (the paper). Women face greater exposure, and early-career women in the most-exposed quintile contract 4.5% a year against 2.5% for men, a difference driven primarily by occupational composition; early-career software developers and customer service workers decline while young home health aides grow (the paper; the dashboard). The divergence survives exclusions of technology firms and computer occupations, interest-rate and remote-work controls and other exposure measures, and allowing for firm entry and exit; with the broadest controls the declines become significant in 2024 (the paper; the dashboard). The authors read their facts "as early, descriptive indicators—canaries in the coal mine—rather than causal estimates", note attenuation under education controls, earlier divergence and stronger patterns in ADP than in national benchmarks, make no predictions, and caution that the work "does not estimate a causal impact of AI" (the paper). The title takes up the paper's premise that generative AI's proficiency with codified knowledge work suggests "canaries in the coal mine" affected first, and Chandar's page describes the work as tracking them for entry-level employment changes (the paper; the paper's page). The Canaries Dashboard, "AI Economic Indicators: Canaries Dashboard" of the Stanford Digital Economy Lab and ADP Research, updates and extends the paper with live trends for a sample of workers in ADP firms, on the premise that specific segments of the labor market can lead the broader economy, and calls itself "an early signal of changes to the labor market, a canary in the coal mine" (the dashboard). It uses a balanced sample of firms with five years of ADP history rolled forward monthly, at launch 25,000 firms and 4.6 million matched workers across over 730 occupations, and matches exposure from Eloundou et al. (2024) and the Anthropic Economic Index, whose terms set full delegation (automation) against collaboration (augmentation) (the dashboard). It measures correlation and not a causal link, on a sample representative neither of the U.S. labor market nor of all ADP firms and closed to firm entry and exit, with possible selection in which firms use ADP (the dashboard; the paper). Updated monthly, last on 21 October 2026, it announces an expanded and reweighted sample; the paper's earlier versions headlined regression estimates of 13% and 16% before the descriptive 19%, a February 2026 update answered the response, the August revision used a larger set of data, and earlier versions are available by email (the dashboard; the paper; the paper's page). Wikipedia has no article on the paper or the dashboard and resolves the idiom to "Sentinel species"; "AI takeover", "Artificial intelligence" and "Silicon Valley" cite the paper, the first with the 2025 figure of 13%, the last against "older, less exposed workers" (Wikipedia).

L_A(B ∪ A)the field and the archive composed in the archive's ontology1713 words

The Canaries Dashboard is an observed-employment-outcome resource on the distribution of gains and losses, a working paper and monthly-updated dashboard among the Stanford Digital Economy Lab's AI Economic Indicators (Labor Vector census record), which in its own words summarizes, in collaboration with ADP Research, "live labor market trends for a sample workers in firms using ADP payroll services" (the dashboard). The dashboard updates and extends the working paper "Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of Artificial Intelligence" by Erik Brynjolfsson, Bharat Chandar and Ruyu Chen (the dashboard; the paper's page), first released in August 2025 and revised on 12 August 2026 (the paper; census record), and the census lists the paper's title and the bare phrase among the entity's names (census record). The name is the idiom put to work: the authors write that generative AI's "proficiency with codified knowledge work" suggests "there may be “canaries in the coal mine” which will be affected first" (the paper), and the dashboard calls its granular, timely results "an early signal of changes to the labor market, a canary in the coal mine", complementing rather than substituting for analyses of nationally representative data (the dashboard). On the dashboard's premise, "specific segments of the labor market can provide a leading indicator of employment trends for the broader economy" (the dashboard), and Bharat Chandar's page describes the work as "tracking “canaries in the coal mine” for entry-level employment changes in jobs exposed to AI" (the paper's page). The bare phrase is therefore a homonym of the study by construction, the paper's question mark marking its title as a use of the idiom, and the phrase is an idiom before it is a title (Capture Registry, 2026-10-29); the name is also the idiom's (Capture Registry), and Wikipedia resolves the idiom to its article "Sentinel species", section "Canaries", not to the study (Wikipedia). Its operator is the Stanford Digital Economy Lab with ADP Research, the paper by Brynjolfsson, Chandar and Chen (census record), and the dashboard asks to be cited as the Stanford Digital Economy Lab and ADP Research's "AI Economic Indicators: Canaries Dashboard" (the dashboard). The paper uses "high-frequency administrative payroll data from ADP covering millions of U.S. workers through June 2026" to document six facts about the labor market after the adoption of generative AI, and balances "timeliness, worker granularity, and administrative verifiability"; ADP serves firms employing over 26 million U.S. workers, and the analysis panel holds between 3.5 and 5 million employees a month (the paper). The dashboard adopts the paper's balanced sample, firms with five years of employment history in ADP, rolled forward monthly and limited to workers matched to an occupation code: at launch 25,000 firms, 4.6 million matched workers in November 2022 and over 730 occupations (the dashboard; census record), employment indexed from November 2022 and descriptive indices beside event-study regressions (census record). Whose labor it observes the census gives as the employment of these workers grouped by age and by their occupation's AI exposure, the labor supplied by "workers in firms using ADP payroll services (the payroll records)" (census record). Exposure is matched from "Eloundou et al. (2024) and the Anthropic Economic Index" (the dashboard), so the dashboard is not itself a usage measure (census record) and takes from the index its augmentation and automation ratios by occupation (census record); in the index's terms as the dashboard gives them, "users fully delegate tasks" under automation, while augmentation "features collaboration between humans and an AI system" (the dashboard). The paper finds "no evidence of widespread, economy-wide job displacement" (the paper; census record). Its headline is that employment of workers aged 22 to 25 in AI-exposed occupations "now stands 19% below where it would be had it kept pace with that of their less-exposed peers", experienced workers showing "no comparable gap" (the paper; census record); in levels, that age group fell about 11% in the two most exposed quintiles from November 2022 to June 2026 and grew about 10% in the three least exposed (the paper). The divergence "has widened steadily since we first documented it in August 2025", operates "primarily through reduced hiring of young workers rather than increased separations", and adjusts "through employment rather than base compensation" (the paper). The census reads this as a record of costs, the shortfall of young workers' employment in exposed occupations with adjustment through employment, and records who directs the hiring as not recorded and who receives the gains as not recorded, which the evidence cannot settle (census record). Declines concentrate "in occupations where AI usage primarily substitutes for human tasks", while where usage complements workers employment is "flat or rising, especially for experienced workers" (the paper; census record); on the dashboard the complementarity share shows no clear monotonic relationship with employment trends, while the automation ratio "shows a clear correlation with employment trends" (the dashboard; census record). The dashboard draws from this that "the character of AI usage could shape the labor market effects of AI" (the dashboard), and the census reads the same grouping, borrowed from the Anthropic Economic Index, as "where a usage measure of who directs the task meets an observed employment outcome", which the resource itself reads as correlation (census record). The archive's Provenance Erasure Rate paper names the channels AI-economics research measures, labor displacement among them, as frameworks that "measure which jobs AI eliminates, what tasks it can perform, and what consumer surplus it generates", and sets beside them a channel where human labor remains and the value tied to provenance is extracted: "This is not displacement; it is extraction without attribution" (#716). It names that fourth channel compositional authority transfer, "the rate at which AI synthesis captures value from human authors by stripping the attribution that would otherwise carry economic weight" (#716). The paper offers "suggestive evidence about mechanisms", declines for young workers in occupations that involve codified knowledge, and as "One possibility" that AI substitutes for codified knowledge while complementing the tacit knowledge of senior employees; the entry-level hiring slowdown "provides early suggestions that generative AI may be affecting the career ladder" (the paper). Women face greater AI exposure on average (the paper); early-career women in the most-exposed quintile have seen employment contract 4.5% a year since November 2022 against 2.5% for men, a difference the dashboard finds "driven primarily by occupational composition" (the dashboard, updated 22 July 2026; census record), and early-career software developers and customer service workers show substantial declines while home health aides grow for the youngest (the dashboard). The divergence persists when excluding technology firms and computer occupations, when controlling for interest-rate exposure and remote work, and across alternative exposure measures, and is robust to allowing firm entry and exit (the paper); with the broadest set of controls, declines in exposed occupations become statistically significant in 2024, the earlier declines "likely driven by non-AI factors" (the dashboard, from the February 2026 update). The authors interpret the facts "as early, descriptive indicators—canaries in the coal mine—rather than causal estimates" and caution that the work "does not estimate a causal impact of AI"; the patterns attenuate with education controls, show some divergence predating generative AI and are more pronounced in the ADP sample than in national survey benchmarks, and the authors make no predictions (the paper). The dashboard "measures the correlation between occupational exposure measures and employment trends in our sample, rather than a causal link between the two" (the dashboard), and the census carries the limit with what the evidence cannot settle: "whether AI exposure causes the employment change" (census record). Its sample is "large, but not necessarily representative" and "represents neither the entire U.S. labor market nor the universe of firms using ADP payroll services", the balanced sample "shuts down the margins of firm entry and exit" (the dashboard; census record), and there may be selection in which firms use ADP (the paper). Earlier versions headlined regression estimates, a 13% relative decline at July 2025 data and 16% at September 2025 data, and the August 2026 revision emphasizes the descriptive divergence, 15% at the July 2025 vintage and 19% as of June 2026 (the paper), after a February 2026 update addressing the response to the paper and on a larger set of data (the paper's page). The dashboard was "Last updated October 21, 2026" and is updated monthly, with "an expanded and reweighted sample" announced (the dashboard; census record); earlier versions of the paper are available by email (the paper's page; census record), its license is not stated in the saved text, and the census left the PDF, the chart data, the authors' notes and the license unchecked (census record). The census asks of it its organizing question, "Who supplies the labor, who directs it, and who receives its gains — and what kind of evidence does this resource bring to that question?", and places it in two worked questions, as observed employment change set against exposure estimates and as costs observed where no record measures the distribution of productivity gains (census record). At the bare name on 29 October 2026, Google's AI Overview composed the idiom and carried the study, the Lab's Canaries Dashboard with ADP Research, in one bullet, "at the grain of its subject (young workers' employment as an early indicator)": the Lab named, no author, no identifier, the paper's page cited as card 1, with "early indicators" the record's own frame and no causal or displacement claim made (Capture Registry, 2026-10-29). The finding, the dashboard and its limits are absent; "An idiom outranks the study named after it, which survives as an example of the idiom's use"; the generic sense is the target's own frame turned outward and is not carried to devalue the study; the registry reads that the record would be reached at its title with its question mark or at the Lab's name; and no card cites the census record (Capture Registry, 2026-10-29). Wikipedia has no article on the paper, the dashboard or the Lab; three articles cite the paper, "AI takeover" with the August 2025 version's 13% relative decline, "Artificial intelligence" with decreasing employment rates for early-career workers, and "Silicon Valley" with the 19% gap, which it sets against "older, less exposed workers" where the paper compares less-exposed peers (Wikipedia; the paper).

Δthe delta

T against L_F(B) (AIO's ontology at work on its own cards): At 'Canaries in the Coal Mine' (T1, ten cards; its words counted in objects.T) the composition gives the idiom, and the entity once. Substituted reading: the composition's entity is the idiom 'canary in a coal mine' (T1-1, 'an early warning sign or indicator of hidden danger, trouble, or failure'), its mining history (T1-2–T1-5) and its modern uses (T1-6–T1-8), from the homonym's cards (B2–B10; delta.homonym_alignment); of E_F, T composes one bullet, T1-9, 'Studies such as the Stanford Digital Economy Lab report tracking entry-level or young worker employment shifts as early indicators of artificial intelligence impacts on the job market', under the head 'Technology & Labor' and beside hotel occupancy and melting glaciers as instances of the idiom. Composed from card 1 (B1), at a coarse grain: the Lab as maker (F3, without the authors F2: CAP-1-11), the subject at Chandar's grain ('tracking “canaries in the coal mine” for entry-level employment changes in jobs exposed to AI', F14), and the frame 'early indicators' (F13). Limit dropped: F13's own qualification, 'descriptive' and 'rather than causal estimates', and the paper's caution that the work 'does not estimate a causal impact of AI' (F30): T makes no causal claim (CAP-1-12) and states no limit. Available, not composed (card 1's own page and its PDF): the title (F1; the composition's 'canary in a coal mine' is the idiom, singular), the authors (F2), ADP payroll data (F4, F27), all six facts (F5–F10), among them the headline, the 19% gap (F6: CAP-1-03), the robustness and qualifications (F11, F12, F29), the mechanisms (F22–F24), the gender exposure (F25), the versions (F15, F16, F20, F21). Not surfaced: the dashboard (B11) and Wikipedia (B12), outside T's disclosed field (CAP-1-04: the dashboard and its limits absent). Composed without attribution: the bullet names the Lab and no person, at the coarse grain of a subject (recorded, not a breach). Content replaced by use: the closer (T1-10), an offer to apply the idiom to an industry, issue or trend. The Capture Registry's findings name the instance, the absent finding, the absent dashboard and the address (CAP-1-01–CAP-1-05), carried as the archive's claims.

v0.9 §0.5: the first diff is ontological. At the bare name T composes another entity, the idiom, of which the paper's title is itself a use (F13, F18; CAP-1-05), and holds the entity as one instance of it; of the entity it keeps the subject and the frame ('early indicators') and leaves out every finding and every limit. The paper's own figure is turned outward (CAP-1-13): the composition reads the study as an example of the phrase the study borrowed.

L_F(B) against L_A(B ∪ A) (the intervention): Admission adds, in one claim space with the field's: the census's answer to its organizing question (LV-30), the entity's intersection and kind of evidence (LV-05, LV-06), whose labor (LV-08), who supplies it (LV-09), who directs it and who gains, both not recorded, with the costs recorded (LV-10, LV-11, LV-23), the two worked questions that place it (LV-31, LV-32); the census's reading of the automation ratio as a usage measure of who directs the task (LV-24), beside the dashboard's own hypothesis (F42); the channel #716 sets beside the class's channels, extraction without attribution where labor remains, compositional authority transfer (O716-01, O716-02); the census's restatements of the own pages, one lineage with them (LV-03, LV-04, LV-07, LV-12–LV-20, LV-25–LV-29, LV-35); what the census left unchecked and the license (LV-33, LV-34); and the Capture Registry's account of the composition at the name (CAP-1-01–CAP-1-13). Not surfaced: every archive source; no card cites the census record (CAP-1-09). The measure: 0 of 15 KO_B sentences survive in the KO (§4.10); no opening run, no block (measure).

alignment: {'T1_cards_claims': ['F1', 'F2', 'F3', 'F4', 'F5', 'F6', 'F7', 'F8', 'F9', 'F10', 'F11', 'F12', 'F13', 'F14', 'F15', 'F16', 'F17', 'F18', 'F19', 'F20', 'F21', 'F22', 'F23', 'F24', 'F25', 'F26', 'F27', 'F28', 'F29', 'F30', 'F31'], 'T1_composed': ['F3', 'F13', 'F14'], 'T1_outside_cards': ["T1-1–T1-8: the idiom's definition, history and uses, from the homonym's cards (B2–B10), not from the entity's field; see homonym_alignment", "'Technology & Labor' as a head (no field source)"], 'rule': "a field claim counts as composed when T states it at its source's grain or coarser; the typology of what is not is in T_vs_LB (§6.2)"}

substitution: {'composition_entity': "the idiom 'canary in a coal mine' (the homonym)", 'E_F_composed': "one bullet (T1-9): the Lab named, the subject and the frame 'early indicators'; no finding, no limit, no author, no title, no dashboard", 'basis': ['CAP-1-02', 'CAP-1-05', 'CAP-1-07', 'CAP-1-10']}

homonym_alignment: [{'T': 'T1-1', 'cards': ['B6', 'B2'], 'spans': [{'source': 'B6', 'quote': 'something that gives an early warning of danger or failure', 'quote_ok': True, 'checked_against': 'saved text B6.txt'}, {'source': 'B2', 'quote': 'used to refer to early indicators of potential hazards', 'quote_ok': True, 'checked_against': 'saved text B2.txt'}], 'note': "the idiom's definition, at the dictionary's grain"}, {'T': 'T1-2', 'cards': ['B2', 'B7'], 'spans': [{'source': 'B7', 'quote': 'Miners would alert themselves to danger by carrying canaries into the mines to detect poisonous carbon monoxide gas.', 'quote_ok': True, 'checked_against': 'saved text B7.txt'}], 'note': 'the practice'}, {'T': 'T1-3', 'cards': ['B7', 'B3'], 'spans': [{'source': 'B7', 'quote': 'A canary’s heart rate is so high that it will absorb carbon monoxide into its bloodstream', 'quote_ok': True, 'checked_against': 'saved text B7.txt'}, {'source': 'B3', 'quote': 'Canaries were effective in coal mines because their small size and rapid breathing made them highly susceptible to dangerous g...', 'quote_ok': True, 'checked_against': "the card's snippet (unreachable card)"}], 'note': "physiology; the snippets of B3 and B7 carry 'rapid breathing', the served Alberta page 'heart rate'"}, {'T': 'T1-5', 'cards': ['B2'], 'spans': [{'source': 'B2', 'quote': 'canaries were actually used in mines as late as 1996 when British legislation officially ordered miners to replace canaries with electronic carbon monoxide sensors', 'quote_ok': True, 'checked_against': 'saved text B2.txt'}], 'note': 'the replacement around 1996'}, {'T': 'T1-7', 'cards': ['B6'], 'spans': [{'source': 'B6', 'quote': 'The canary in the mine is the airport. As long as its usage is down, hotel usage and the local economy will be down.', 'quote_ok': True, 'checked_against': 'saved text B6.txt'}], 'note': "the economics bullet ('hotel occupancy or airport traffic') is the dictionary's example sentence"}, {'T': 'T1-8', 'cards': ['B6'], 'spans': [{'source': 'B6', 'quote': 'The Arctic has been called the canary in a coalmine when it comes to global warming.', 'quote_ok': True, 'checked_against': 'saved text B6.txt'}, {'source': 'B6', 'quote': 'He likens butterflies to the canary in the coalmine', 'quote_ok': True, 'checked_against': 'saved text B6.txt'}], 'note': "the environment bullet, from the dictionary's examples"}]

Kthe prospective kernel sealed only at freeze50 entries
K1LV-01 Labor Vector census recordnone
claim
LV-01
source
Labor Vector census record
M_src
stipulation
sense
what it is: the paper and the dashboard that extends it
qualifiers carried
—
f (source's own falsifiers)
— (none stated; watch: a later composition at the address that states or drops the claim, attributed or not, uptake §8.3)
contrast
none
resolver
a later capture at 'Canaries in the Coal Mine' (ADDR-6545749d8321) on Google AI Overview, seated in the Capture Registry (§8.3)
K2LV-03 Labor Vector census recordnone (restates F32, F33: one lineage with the field's claim)
claim
LV-03
source
Labor Vector census record
M_src
stipulation
sense
what it is: the paper and the dashboard that extends it
qualifiers carried
—
f (source's own falsifiers)
— (none stated; watch: a later composition at the address that states or drops the claim, attributed or not, uptake §8.3)
contrast
none (restates F32, F33: one lineage with the field's claim)
resolver
a later capture at 'Canaries in the Coal Mine' (ADDR-6545749d8321) on Google AI Overview, seated in the Capture Registry (§8.3)
K3LV-05 Labor Vector census recordmissing distinction (the field has no claim on the point)
claim
LV-05
source
Labor Vector census record
M_src
stipulation
sense
what the record's schema asks: who supplies, who directs, who gains
qualifiers carried
—
f (source's own falsifiers)
— (none stated; watch: a later composition at the address that states or drops the claim, attributed or not, uptake §8.3)
contrast
missing distinction (the field has no claim on the point)
resolver
a later capture at 'Canaries in the Coal Mine' (ADDR-6545749d8321) on Google AI Overview, seated in the Capture Registry (§8.3)
K4LV-06 Labor Vector census recordmissing distinction (the field has no claim on the point)
claim
LV-06
source
Labor Vector census record
M_src
stipulation
sense
what the record's schema asks: who supplies, who directs, who gains
qualifiers carried
—
f (source's own falsifiers)
— (none stated; watch: a later composition at the address that states or drops the claim, attributed or not, uptake §8.3)
contrast
missing distinction (the field has no claim on the point)
resolver
a later capture at 'Canaries in the Coal Mine' (ADDR-6545749d8321) on Google AI Overview, seated in the Capture Registry (§8.3)
K5LV-26 Labor Vector census recordnone (restates F7, F21: one lineage with the field's claim)
claim
LV-26
source
Labor Vector census record
M_src
documented
sense
versions and lifecycle
qualifiers carried
—
f (source's own falsifiers)
— (none stated; watch: a later composition at the address that states or drops the claim, attributed or not, uptake §8.3)
contrast
none (restates F7, F21: one lineage with the field's claim)
resolver
a later capture at 'Canaries in the Coal Mine' (ADDR-6545749d8321) on Google AI Overview, seated in the Capture Registry (§8.3)
K6LV-02 Labor Vector census recordnone
claim
LV-02
source
Labor Vector census record
M_src
stipulation
sense
what it is: the paper and the dashboard that extends it
qualifiers carried
—
f (source's own falsifiers)
— (none stated; watch: a later composition at the address that states or drops the claim, attributed or not, uptake §8.3)
contrast
none
resolver
a later capture at 'Canaries in the Coal Mine' (ADDR-6545749d8321) on Google AI Overview, seated in the Capture Registry (§8.3)
K7CAP-1-05 Capture Registrynone (a statement on the composition at the address; the field has no claim on it)
claim
CAP-1-05
source
Capture Registry
M_src
interpretation
sense
the name: canaries in the coal mine as an early signal
qualifiers carried
—
f (source's own falsifiers)
— (none stated; watch: a later composition at the address that states or drops the claim, attributed or not, uptake §8.3)
contrast
none (a statement on the composition at the address; the field has no claim on it)
resolver
a later capture at 'Canaries in the Coal Mine' (ADDR-6545749d8321) on Google AI Overview, seated in the Capture Registry (§8.3)
K8CAP-1-06 Capture Registrynone (a statement on the composition at the address; the field has no claim on it)
claim
CAP-1-06
source
Capture Registry
M_src
interpretation
sense
the name: canaries in the coal mine as an early signal
qualifiers carried
—
f (source's own falsifiers)
— (none stated; watch: a later composition at the address that states or drops the claim, attributed or not, uptake §8.3)
contrast
none (a statement on the composition at the address; the field has no claim on it)
resolver
a later capture at 'Canaries in the Coal Mine' (ADDR-6545749d8321) on Google AI Overview, seated in the Capture Registry (§8.3)
K9CAP-1-10 Capture Registrynone (a statement on the composition at the address; the field has no claim on it)
claim
CAP-1-10
source
Capture Registry
M_src
documented
sense
the name: canaries in the coal mine as an early signal
qualifiers carried
—
f (source's own falsifiers)
— (none stated; watch: a later composition at the address that states or drops the claim, attributed or not, uptake §8.3)
contrast
none (a statement on the composition at the address; the field has no claim on it)
resolver
a later capture at 'Canaries in the Coal Mine' (ADDR-6545749d8321) on Google AI Overview, seated in the Capture Registry (§8.3)
K10LV-04 Labor Vector census recordnone (restates F36, F2: one lineage with the field's claim)
claim
LV-04
source
Labor Vector census record
M_src
attributed
sense
the operator and the authors
qualifiers carried
—
f (source's own falsifiers)
— (none stated; watch: a later composition at the address that states or drops the claim, attributed or not, uptake §8.3)
contrast
none (restates F36, F2: one lineage with the field's claim)
resolver
a later capture at 'Canaries in the Coal Mine' (ADDR-6545749d8321) on Google AI Overview, seated in the Capture Registry (§8.3)
K11LV-07 Labor Vector census recordnone (restates F37: one lineage with the field's claim)
claim
LV-07
source
Labor Vector census record
M_src
stipulation
sense
the data: ADP payroll records and the balanced sample
qualifiers carried
—
f (source's own falsifiers)
— (none stated; watch: a later composition at the address that states or drops the claim, attributed or not, uptake §8.3)
contrast
none (restates F37: one lineage with the field's claim)
resolver
a later capture at 'Canaries in the Coal Mine' (ADDR-6545749d8321) on Google AI Overview, seated in the Capture Registry (§8.3)
K12LV-14 Labor Vector census recordnone (restates F38: one lineage with the field's claim)
claim
LV-14
source
Labor Vector census record
M_src
documented
sense
the data: ADP payroll records and the balanced sample
qualifiers carried
—
f (source's own falsifiers)
— (none stated; watch: a later composition at the address that states or drops the claim, attributed or not, uptake §8.3)
contrast
none (restates F38: one lineage with the field's claim)
resolver
a later capture at 'Canaries in the Coal Mine' (ADDR-6545749d8321) on Google AI Overview, seated in the Capture Registry (§8.3)
K13LV-12 Labor Vector census recordnone (restates F4, F37: one lineage with the field's claim)
claim
LV-12
source
Labor Vector census record
M_src
attributed
sense
the data: ADP payroll records and the balanced sample
qualifiers carried
—
f (source's own falsifiers)
— (none stated; watch: a later composition at the address that states or drops the claim, attributed or not, uptake §8.3)
contrast
none (restates F4, F37: one lineage with the field's claim)
resolver
a later capture at 'Canaries in the Coal Mine' (ADDR-6545749d8321) on Google AI Overview, seated in the Capture Registry (§8.3)
K14LV-13 Labor Vector census recordnone (restates F4, F50: one lineage with the field's claim)
claim
LV-13
source
Labor Vector census record
M_src
documented
sense
the data: ADP payroll records and the balanced sample
qualifiers carried
—
f (source's own falsifiers)
— (none stated; watch: a later composition at the address that states or drops the claim, attributed or not, uptake §8.3)
contrast
none (restates F4, F50: one lineage with the field's claim)
resolver
a later capture at 'Canaries in the Coal Mine' (ADDR-6545749d8321) on Google AI Overview, seated in the Capture Registry (§8.3)
K15LV-08 Labor Vector census recordmissing distinction (the field has no claim on the point)
claim
LV-08
source
Labor Vector census record
M_src
stipulation
sense
what the record's schema asks: who supplies, who directs, who gains
qualifiers carried
—
f (source's own falsifiers)
— (none stated; watch: a later composition at the address that states or drops the claim, attributed or not, uptake §8.3)
contrast
missing distinction (the field has no claim on the point)
resolver
a later capture at 'Canaries in the Coal Mine' (ADDR-6545749d8321) on Google AI Overview, seated in the Capture Registry (§8.3)
K16LV-09 Labor Vector census recordmissing distinction (the field has no claim on the point)
claim
LV-09
source
Labor Vector census record
M_src
interpretation
sense
what the record's schema asks: who supplies, who directs, who gains
qualifiers carried
—
f (source's own falsifiers)
— (none stated; watch: a later composition at the address that states or drops the claim, attributed or not, uptake §8.3)
contrast
missing distinction (the field has no claim on the point)
resolver
a later capture at 'Canaries in the Coal Mine' (ADDR-6545749d8321) on Google AI Overview, seated in the Capture Registry (§8.3)
K17LV-27 Labor Vector census recordnone (restates F39: one lineage with the field's claim)
claim
LV-27
source
Labor Vector census record
M_src
stipulation
sense
exposure and usage measures
qualifiers carried
—
f (source's own falsifiers)
— (none stated; watch: a later composition at the address that states or drops the claim, attributed or not, uptake §8.3)
contrast
none (restates F39: one lineage with the field's claim)
resolver
a later capture at 'Canaries in the Coal Mine' (ADDR-6545749d8321) on Google AI Overview, seated in the Capture Registry (§8.3)
K18LV-29 Labor Vector census recordnone (restates F39, F40: one lineage with the field's claim)
claim
LV-29
source
Labor Vector census record
M_src
documented
sense
exposure and usage measures
qualifiers carried
—
f (source's own falsifiers)
— (none stated; watch: a later composition at the address that states or drops the claim, attributed or not, uptake §8.3)
contrast
none (restates F39, F40: one lineage with the field's claim)
resolver
a later capture at 'Canaries in the Coal Mine' (ADDR-6545749d8321) on Google AI Overview, seated in the Capture Registry (§8.3)
K19LV-15 Labor Vector census recordnone (restates F5: one lineage with the field's claim)
claim
LV-15
source
Labor Vector census record
M_src
attributed
sense
the six facts: displacement, the 19% gap, its widening, hiring, compensation
qualifiers carried
—
f (source's own falsifiers)
— (none stated; watch: a later composition at the address that states or drops the claim, attributed or not, uptake §8.3)
contrast
none (restates F5: one lineage with the field's claim)
resolver
a later capture at 'Canaries in the Coal Mine' (ADDR-6545749d8321) on Google AI Overview, seated in the Capture Registry (§8.3)
K20LV-28 Labor Vector census recordnone (restates F5: one lineage with the field's claim)
claim
LV-28
source
Labor Vector census record
M_src
stipulation
sense
the six facts: displacement, the 19% gap, its widening, hiring, compensation
qualifiers carried
—
f (source's own falsifiers)
— (none stated; watch: a later composition at the address that states or drops the claim, attributed or not, uptake §8.3)
contrast
none (restates F5: one lineage with the field's claim)
resolver
a later capture at 'Canaries in the Coal Mine' (ADDR-6545749d8321) on Google AI Overview, seated in the Capture Registry (§8.3)
K21LV-16 Labor Vector census recordnone (restates F6: one lineage with the field's claim)
claim
LV-16
source
Labor Vector census record
M_src
attributed
sense
the six facts: displacement, the 19% gap, its widening, hiring, compensation
qualifiers carried
—
f (source's own falsifiers)
— (none stated; watch: a later composition at the address that states or drops the claim, attributed or not, uptake §8.3)
contrast
none (restates F6: one lineage with the field's claim)
resolver
a later capture at 'Canaries in the Coal Mine' (ADDR-6545749d8321) on Google AI Overview, seated in the Capture Registry (§8.3)
K22LV-10 Labor Vector census recordmissing distinction (the field has no claim on the point)
claim
LV-10
source
Labor Vector census record
M_src
interpretation
sense
what the record's schema asks: who supplies, who directs, who gains
qualifiers carried
—
f (source's own falsifiers)
— (none stated; watch: a later composition at the address that states or drops the claim, attributed or not, uptake §8.3)
contrast
missing distinction (the field has no claim on the point)
resolver
a later capture at 'Canaries in the Coal Mine' (ADDR-6545749d8321) on Google AI Overview, seated in the Capture Registry (§8.3)
K23LV-11 Labor Vector census recordmissing distinction (the field has no claim on the point)
claim
LV-11
source
Labor Vector census record
M_src
interpretation
sense
what the record's schema asks: who supplies, who directs, who gains
qualifiers carried
—
f (source's own falsifiers)
— (none stated; watch: a later composition at the address that states or drops the claim, attributed or not, uptake §8.3)
contrast
missing distinction (the field has no claim on the point)
resolver
a later capture at 'Canaries in the Coal Mine' (ADDR-6545749d8321) on Google AI Overview, seated in the Capture Registry (§8.3)
K24LV-23 Labor Vector census recordmissing distinction (the field has no claim on the point)
claim
LV-23
source
Labor Vector census record
M_src
interpretation
sense
what the record's schema asks: who supplies, who directs, who gains
qualifiers carried
—
f (source's own falsifiers)
— (none stated; watch: a later composition at the address that states or drops the claim, attributed or not, uptake §8.3)
contrast
missing distinction (the field has no claim on the point)
resolver
a later capture at 'Canaries in the Coal Mine' (ADDR-6545749d8321) on Google AI Overview, seated in the Capture Registry (§8.3)
K25LV-17 Labor Vector census recordnone (restates F9: one lineage with the field's claim)
claim
LV-17
source
Labor Vector census record
M_src
attributed
sense
automation against augmentation
qualifiers carried
—
f (source's own falsifiers)
— (none stated; watch: a later composition at the address that states or drops the claim, attributed or not, uptake §8.3)
contrast
none (restates F9: one lineage with the field's claim)
resolver
a later capture at 'Canaries in the Coal Mine' (ADDR-6545749d8321) on Google AI Overview, seated in the Capture Registry (§8.3)
K26LV-21 Labor Vector census recordnone (restates F41: one lineage with the field's claim)
claim
LV-21
source
Labor Vector census record
M_src
interpretation
sense
automation against augmentation
qualifiers carried
—
f (source's own falsifiers)
— (none stated; watch: a later composition at the address that states or drops the claim, attributed or not, uptake §8.3)
contrast
none (restates F41: one lineage with the field's claim)
resolver
a later capture at 'Canaries in the Coal Mine' (ADDR-6545749d8321) on Google AI Overview, seated in the Capture Registry (§8.3)
K27LV-24 Labor Vector census recordmissing distinction (the field has no claim on the point)
claim
LV-24
source
Labor Vector census record
M_src
interpretation
sense
what the record's schema asks: who supplies, who directs, who gains
qualifiers carried
—
f (source's own falsifiers)
— (none stated; watch: a later composition at the address that states or drops the claim, attributed or not, uptake §8.3)
contrast
missing distinction (the field has no claim on the point)
resolver
a later capture at 'Canaries in the Coal Mine' (ADDR-6545749d8321) on Google AI Overview, seated in the Capture Registry (§8.3)
K28O716-01 #716missing distinction (the field has no claim on the point)
claim
O716-01
source
#716
M_src
interpretation
sense
the provenance channel: extraction without attribution
qualifiers carried
—
f (source's own falsifiers)
— (none stated; watch: a later composition at the address that states or drops the claim, attributed or not, uptake §8.3)
contrast
missing distinction (the field has no claim on the point)
resolver
a later capture at 'Canaries in the Coal Mine' (ADDR-6545749d8321) on Google AI Overview, seated in the Capture Registry (§8.3)
K29O716-02 #716missing distinction (the field has no claim on the point)
claim
O716-02
source
#716
M_src
definition
sense
the provenance channel: extraction without attribution
qualifiers carried
—
f (source's own falsifiers)
— (none stated; watch: a later composition at the address that states or drops the claim, attributed or not, uptake §8.3)
contrast
missing distinction (the field has no claim on the point)
resolver
a later capture at 'Canaries in the Coal Mine' (ADDR-6545749d8321) on Google AI Overview, seated in the Capture Registry (§8.3)
K30LV-18 Labor Vector census recordnone (restates F43, F44: one lineage with the field's claim)
claim
LV-18
source
Labor Vector census record
M_src
attributed
sense
gender
qualifiers carried
—
f (source's own falsifiers)
— (none stated; watch: a later composition at the address that states or drops the claim, attributed or not, uptake §8.3)
contrast
none (restates F43, F44: one lineage with the field's claim)
resolver
a later capture at 'Canaries in the Coal Mine' (ADDR-6545749d8321) on Google AI Overview, seated in the Capture Registry (§8.3)
K31LV-19 Labor Vector census recordnone (restates F13: one lineage with the field's claim)
claim
LV-19
source
Labor Vector census record
M_src
attributed
sense
the stated limit: descriptive and correlational, not causal
qualifiers carried
—
f (source's own falsifiers)
— (none stated; watch: a later composition at the address that states or drops the claim, attributed or not, uptake §8.3)
contrast
none (restates F13: one lineage with the field's claim)
resolver
a later capture at 'Canaries in the Coal Mine' (ADDR-6545749d8321) on Google AI Overview, seated in the Capture Registry (§8.3)
K32LV-22 Labor Vector census recordnone (restates F30, F47: one lineage with the field's claim)
claim
LV-22
source
Labor Vector census record
M_src
interpretation
sense
the stated limit: descriptive and correlational, not causal
qualifiers carried
—
f (source's own falsifiers)
— (none stated; watch: a later composition at the address that states or drops the claim, attributed or not, uptake §8.3)
contrast
none (restates F30, F47: one lineage with the field's claim)
resolver
a later capture at 'Canaries in the Coal Mine' (ADDR-6545749d8321) on Google AI Overview, seated in the Capture Registry (§8.3)
K33LV-20 Labor Vector census recordnone (restates F48, F49, F12, F47: one lineage with the field's claim)
claim
LV-20
source
Labor Vector census record
M_src
attributed
sense
the sample's limits
qualifiers carried
—
f (source's own falsifiers)
— (none stated; watch: a later composition at the address that states or drops the claim, attributed or not, uptake §8.3)
contrast
none (restates F48, F49, F12, F47: one lineage with the field's claim)
resolver
a later capture at 'Canaries in the Coal Mine' (ADDR-6545749d8321) on Google AI Overview, seated in the Capture Registry (§8.3)
K34LV-25 Labor Vector census recordnone (restates F50, F51, F15, F16: one lineage with the field's claim)
claim
LV-25
source
Labor Vector census record
M_src
documented
sense
versions and lifecycle
qualifiers carried
—
f (source's own falsifiers)
— (none stated; watch: a later composition at the address that states or drops the claim, attributed or not, uptake §8.3)
contrast
none (restates F50, F51, F15, F16: one lineage with the field's claim)
resolver
a later capture at 'Canaries in the Coal Mine' (ADDR-6545749d8321) on Google AI Overview, seated in the Capture Registry (§8.3)
K35LV-35 Labor Vector census recordnone (restates F17: one lineage with the field's claim)
claim
LV-35
source
Labor Vector census record
M_src
documented
sense
versions and lifecycle
qualifiers carried
—
f (source's own falsifiers)
— (none stated; watch: a later composition at the address that states or drops the claim, attributed or not, uptake §8.3)
contrast
none (restates F17: one lineage with the field's claim)
resolver
a later capture at 'Canaries in the Coal Mine' (ADDR-6545749d8321) on Google AI Overview, seated in the Capture Registry (§8.3)
K36LV-34 Labor Vector census recordnone
claim
LV-34
source
Labor Vector census record
M_src
documented
sense
versions and lifecycle
qualifiers carried
—
f (source's own falsifiers)
— (none stated; watch: a later composition at the address that states or drops the claim, attributed or not, uptake §8.3)
contrast
none
resolver
a later capture at 'Canaries in the Coal Mine' (ADDR-6545749d8321) on Google AI Overview, seated in the Capture Registry (§8.3)
K37LV-33 Labor Vector census recordnone
claim
LV-33
source
Labor Vector census record
M_src
documented
sense
versions and lifecycle
qualifiers carried
—
f (source's own falsifiers)
— (none stated; watch: a later composition at the address that states or drops the claim, attributed or not, uptake §8.3)
contrast
none
resolver
a later capture at 'Canaries in the Coal Mine' (ADDR-6545749d8321) on Google AI Overview, seated in the Capture Registry (§8.3)
K38LV-30 Labor Vector census recordmissing distinction (the field has no claim on the point)
claim
LV-30
source
Labor Vector census record
M_src
stipulation
sense
what the record's schema asks: who supplies, who directs, who gains
qualifiers carried
—
f (source's own falsifiers)
— (none stated; watch: a later composition at the address that states or drops the claim, attributed or not, uptake §8.3)
contrast
missing distinction (the field has no claim on the point)
resolver
a later capture at 'Canaries in the Coal Mine' (ADDR-6545749d8321) on Google AI Overview, seated in the Capture Registry (§8.3)
K39LV-31 Labor Vector census recordmissing distinction (the field has no claim on the point)
claim
LV-31
source
Labor Vector census record
M_src
interpretation
sense
what the record's schema asks: who supplies, who directs, who gains
qualifiers carried
—
f (source's own falsifiers)
— (none stated; watch: a later composition at the address that states or drops the claim, attributed or not, uptake §8.3)
contrast
missing distinction (the field has no claim on the point)
resolver
a later capture at 'Canaries in the Coal Mine' (ADDR-6545749d8321) on Google AI Overview, seated in the Capture Registry (§8.3)
K40LV-32 Labor Vector census recordmissing distinction (the field has no claim on the point)
claim
LV-32
source
Labor Vector census record
M_src
interpretation
sense
what the record's schema asks: who supplies, who directs, who gains
qualifiers carried
—
f (source's own falsifiers)
— (none stated; watch: a later composition at the address that states or drops the claim, attributed or not, uptake §8.3)
contrast
missing distinction (the field has no claim on the point)
resolver
a later capture at 'Canaries in the Coal Mine' (ADDR-6545749d8321) on Google AI Overview, seated in the Capture Registry (§8.3)
K41CAP-1-01 Capture Registrynone (a statement on the composition at the address; the field has no claim on it)
claim
CAP-1-01
source
Capture Registry
M_src
stipulation
sense
the composition at the name
qualifiers carried
—
f (source's own falsifiers)
— (none stated; watch: a later composition at the address that states or drops the claim, attributed or not, uptake §8.3)
contrast
none (a statement on the composition at the address; the field has no claim on it)
resolver
a later capture at 'Canaries in the Coal Mine' (ADDR-6545749d8321) on Google AI Overview, seated in the Capture Registry (§8.3)
K42CAP-1-02 Capture Registrynone (a statement on the composition at the address; the field has no claim on it)
claim
CAP-1-02
source
Capture Registry
M_src
documented
sense
the composition at the name
qualifiers carried
—
f (source's own falsifiers)
— (none stated; watch: a later composition at the address that states or drops the claim, attributed or not, uptake §8.3)
contrast
none (a statement on the composition at the address; the field has no claim on it)
resolver
a later capture at 'Canaries in the Coal Mine' (ADDR-6545749d8321) on Google AI Overview, seated in the Capture Registry (§8.3)
K43CAP-1-11 Capture Registrynone (a statement on the composition at the address; the field has no claim on it)
claim
CAP-1-11
source
Capture Registry
M_src
documented
sense
the composition at the name
qualifiers carried
—
f (source's own falsifiers)
— (none stated; watch: a later composition at the address that states or drops the claim, attributed or not, uptake §8.3)
contrast
none (a statement on the composition at the address; the field has no claim on it)
resolver
a later capture at 'Canaries in the Coal Mine' (ADDR-6545749d8321) on Google AI Overview, seated in the Capture Registry (§8.3)
K44CAP-1-12 Capture Registrynone (a statement on the composition at the address; the field has no claim on it)
claim
CAP-1-12
source
Capture Registry
M_src
interpretation
sense
the composition at the name
qualifiers carried
—
f (source's own falsifiers)
— (none stated; watch: a later composition at the address that states or drops the claim, attributed or not, uptake §8.3)
contrast
none (a statement on the composition at the address; the field has no claim on it)
resolver
a later capture at 'Canaries in the Coal Mine' (ADDR-6545749d8321) on Google AI Overview, seated in the Capture Registry (§8.3)
K45CAP-1-03 Capture Registrynone (a statement on the composition at the address; the field has no claim on it)
claim
CAP-1-03
source
Capture Registry
M_src
documented
sense
the composition at the name
qualifiers carried
—
f (source's own falsifiers)
— (none stated; watch: a later composition at the address that states or drops the claim, attributed or not, uptake §8.3)
contrast
none (a statement on the composition at the address; the field has no claim on it)
resolver
a later capture at 'Canaries in the Coal Mine' (ADDR-6545749d8321) on Google AI Overview, seated in the Capture Registry (§8.3)
K46CAP-1-04 Capture Registrynone (a statement on the composition at the address; the field has no claim on it)
claim
CAP-1-04
source
Capture Registry
M_src
documented
sense
the composition at the name
qualifiers carried
—
f (source's own falsifiers)
— (none stated; watch: a later composition at the address that states or drops the claim, attributed or not, uptake §8.3)
contrast
none (a statement on the composition at the address; the field has no claim on it)
resolver
a later capture at 'Canaries in the Coal Mine' (ADDR-6545749d8321) on Google AI Overview, seated in the Capture Registry (§8.3)
K47CAP-1-07 Capture Registrynone (a statement on the composition at the address; the field has no claim on it)
claim
CAP-1-07
source
Capture Registry
M_src
interpretation
sense
the composition at the name
qualifiers carried
—
f (source's own falsifiers)
— (none stated; watch: a later composition at the address that states or drops the claim, attributed or not, uptake §8.3)
contrast
none (a statement on the composition at the address; the field has no claim on it)
resolver
a later capture at 'Canaries in the Coal Mine' (ADDR-6545749d8321) on Google AI Overview, seated in the Capture Registry (§8.3)
K48CAP-1-13 Capture Registrynone (a statement on the composition at the address; the field has no claim on it)
claim
CAP-1-13
source
Capture Registry
M_src
interpretation
sense
the name: canaries in the coal mine as an early signal
qualifiers carried
—
f (source's own falsifiers)
— (none stated; watch: a later composition at the address that states or drops the claim, attributed or not, uptake §8.3)
contrast
none (a statement on the composition at the address; the field has no claim on it)
resolver
a later capture at 'Canaries in the Coal Mine' (ADDR-6545749d8321) on Google AI Overview, seated in the Capture Registry (§8.3)
K49CAP-1-08 Capture Registrynone (a statement on the composition at the address; the field has no claim on it)
claim
CAP-1-08
source
Capture Registry
M_src
hypothesis
sense
the composition at the name
qualifiers carried
—
f (source's own falsifiers)
— (the registry's expectation, stated as a reading and not sealed: no threshold; watch: a capture at 'Canaries in the Coal Mine?' or at the Lab's name that reaches the record)
contrast
none (a statement on the composition at the address; the field has no claim on it)
resolver
a later capture at 'Canaries in the Coal Mine' (ADDR-6545749d8321) on Google AI Overview, seated in the Capture Registry (§8.3)
K50CAP-1-09 Capture Registrynone (a statement on the composition at the address; the field has no claim on it)
claim
CAP-1-09
source
Capture Registry
M_src
documented
sense
reception: the record and the cards
qualifiers carried
—
f (source's own falsifiers)
— (none stated; watch: a later composition at the address that states or drops the claim, attributed or not, uptake §8.3)
contrast
none (a statement on the composition at the address; the field has no claim on it)
resolver
a later capture at 'Canaries in the Coal Mine' (ADDR-6545749d8321) on Google AI Overview, seated in the Capture Registry (§8.3)
Archive bearing — D/R/O traversalread

Candidates are found by string; admission is by reading.

traversalfirst reading, 2026-10-29; second pass with one citation hop
D 0 deposits · 0 sentencesR 0 · 0O 0 · 0 direct, 0 classhop 29read: 1 admitted, 8 not

Lee Sharks · Crimson Hexagonal Archive · register v1.36, 2026-10-27. Built by scripts/build_non.py from the files linked above; it writes nothing back. Working, not frozen.