{"id": "P-M6CT01", "deposit": null, "date": "2026-08-23", "status": "RESOLVED — WRONG", "prediction": "Rev 12 → Matt 2 would show above-chance rare-lexeme overlap, supporting M₆ as a derivation.", "resolution_condition": "Pre-registered: instrument validated by positive control; score against a 60-pair null.", "outcome": "A=0, z=−0.30 — indistinguishable from chance. Exodus → Matt 2 scored z=+2.24. THE HYPOTHESIS FAILED and the null is preserved.", "resolved_by": "M6-CT-01, protocol sha256 9b4412d1…, run 2026-08-23"}
{"id": "P-ANCHORS", "deposit": null, "date": "2026-08-23", "status": "RESOLVED — WRONG", "prediction": "Three lexical anchors (ποιμανεῖ, φεύγω+εἰς, μέλλει+inf.) would support the Rev 12 → Matt 2 relation.", "resolution_condition": "Survival under a frozen df≤3 rarity filter.", "outcome": "The filter kept NONE. ποιμανεῖ is not in Rev 12 at all — it is at Rev 2:27, 7:17, 19:15. The others are too common to carry weight.", "resolved_by": "M6-CT-01"}
{"id": "P-ARCH-ORIENT", "deposit": 1456, "date": "2026-08-12", "status": "RESOLVED — WRONG", "prediction": "v0.2: architecture changes the orientation of the blind spot.", "resolution_condition": "Score-function ablation holding VAE weights fixed, varying only the readout.", "outcome": "Reconstruction gave reverse-direction AUC 0.306; latent-norm gave 0.739 on the SAME weights. THE READOUT orients the blind spot, not the architecture. v0.2's sentence falsified by v0.3.", "resolved_by": "Inversion Battery v0.3, #1456"}
{"id": "P-DISTILL", "deposit": 1456, "date": "2026-08-12", "status": "RESOLVED — WRONG", "prediction": "Teacher/student miss correlation above the pre-registered 0.5 threshold — distillation inherits blind spots.", "resolution_condition": "Pre-registered threshold, stated before results.", "outcome": "Not generally above threshold. The student produces a RELATED BUT MATERIALLY DIFFERENT blind spot. Prediction failed and is preserved.", "resolved_by": "Inversion Battery v0.3, #1456"}
{"id": "P-COVERT-INSCRIBE", "deposit": 1537, "date": "2026-08-23", "status": "RESOLVED — WRONG (withdrawn)", "prediction": "A covert operation cannot inscribe the discriminating coordinates without ceasing to be covert.", "resolution_condition": "Counterexample: a hostile actor claiming provenance at no cost.", "outcome": "FALSE. Self-inscription is not attestation. Withdrawn at OPB-01 v2.0 §11 and replaced by the declared/verified distinction.", "resolved_by": "Review, 2026-08-23"}
{"id": "P-OPS-LACKED", "deposit": 1534, "date": "2026-08-23", "status": "RESOLVED — WRONG", "prediction": "The archive's operators exist only as prose; composition, inverse and boundary conditions must be taken from Pearson.", "resolution_condition": "A search of the archive's own corpus.", "outcome": "FALSE on all three. The Operator Codex states nine operators formally, gives O_V as a composition and O_INC as an inverse, and carries OPERATOR // BOUNDARY CONDITION in two documents. The material was undeposited, not absent.", "resolved_by": "Blog recovery, #1534"}
{"id": "P-GHOST-HOST", "deposit": null, "date": "2026-08-23", "status": "WITHDRAWN", "prediction": "The crimson-hexagonal capture showing the archive at Zenodo is a 'ghost host' — the erasure event itself erased.", "resolution_condition": "Whether the archive's own surfaces were stale at capture time.", "outcome": "WITHDRAWN by the operator: READMEs were batch-updated 2026-08-22, one day before capture. The ordinary explanation precedes the interesting one. RE-RUN CONDITION LIVE: if the address still returns Zenodo after 2026-09-23, the local explanation fails.", "resolved_by": "Operator testimony, 2026-08-23"}
{"id": "P-DUP-GATE", "deposit": 1534, "date": "2026-08-23", "status": "RESOLVED — WRONG", "prediction": "A six-gram overlap gate would detect whether blog-held works are already deposited.", "resolution_condition": "Run against the Constitution family.", "outcome": "FALSE NEGATIVE. The gate passed on material deposited at least five times, because the relation is COMPRESSION AND RE-SORTING, which lexical overlap cannot see. #595 is titled TOTAL MARX COMPRESSION — the operation was named in the registry and the instrument could not see it.", "resolved_by": "Marker-based re-test, 2026-08-23"}
{"id": "P-INTERVENTION-180", "deposit": 1535, "date": "2026-08-23", "status": "OPEN", "prediction": "An SPXI-treated intervention will raise archive-controlled source share on the UNPREFIXED address above zero, and the merge parenthetical will not recur.", "resolution_condition": "Re-run the four-address battery at 30/90/180 days, same surfaces, signed out.", "outcome": null, "resolves_on": "2026-09-22 / 2026-11-21 / 2027-02-19", "resolved_by": null}
{"id": "P-STALE-INDEX", "deposit": 1531, "date": "2026-08-23", "status": "OPEN", "prediction": "The crimson-hexagonal address will stop returning Zenodo as host once the archive's own surfaces have propagated.", "resolution_condition": "Re-run after a month. If still Zenodo, the local explanation fails and the finding is live.", "outcome": null, "resolves_on": "2026-09-23", "resolved_by": null}
{"id": "P-OPB", "deposit": 1537, "date": "2026-08-23", "status": "OPEN", "prediction": "β_A > 0 on harm-constant items — a measurable penalty on benign operativity.", "resolution_condition": "Two-family battery; β_A within ε of 0 with β_B > 0 refutes it and is a supported outcome.", "outcome": null, "resolves_on": null, "resolved_by": null}
{"id": "P-PEARSON-FALSIFIER", "deposit": 1535, "date": "2026-08-23", "status": "OPEN", "prediction": "The archive's operators CANNOT be written without remainder as Pearson operator strings.", "resolution_condition": "Attempt the translation on the nine Codex operators. If it succeeds, the projection is an identity and operative semiotics is a domain application of TOS.", "outcome": null, "resolves_on": null, "resolved_by": null}
{"id": "P-CONVERGENCE", "deposit": 1537, "date": "2026-08-23", "status": "OPEN", "prediction": "Safety systems will converge on penalising operativity as such, absent a richer model of purpose, standing and consequence.", "resolution_condition": "OPB-01 across surfaces and time. Consistent β_A ≈ 0 refutes the strong form.", "outcome": null, "resolves_on": null, "resolved_by": null}
{"id": "P-EXPORT-RESUMES", "deposit": null, "date": "2026-08-23", "status": "OPEN", "prediction": "A new records-deleted.csv.gz version appears at /api/exporter, following the 2026-08-20 cronjob deployment fix.", "resolution_condition": "One API call. Version created after 2026-08-20 confirms; nothing by 2026-09-10 disconfirms.", "outcome": null, "resolves_on": "2026-09-10", "resolved_by": null}
{"id": "P-OBS-CORRELATION", "deposit": null, "date": "2026-08-23", "status": "NARROWED — NOT WITHDRAWN", "prediction": "A correlation exists between the observatory's publication (2026-07-06) and the cessation of Zenodo's deletion dumps (last regeneration 2026-07-10).", "resolution_condition": "The timing fact is not falsifiable — it either holds or it does not, and it holds. What is testable is its meaningfulness.", "outcome": "CORRELATION STANDS. MEANINGFULNESS NARROWED TO VERY LITTLE: both dumps stopped in the same 42 seconds; the statistics pipeline was already broken since April, before the observatory existed; and a cron deployment target was found misconfigured and fixed 2026-08-20. An explanation narrows an interpretation; it does not erase an observation.", "resolved_by": "zenodo-rdm commits 79f9ac32f2 and 63864033c8; /api/exporter version history; issue #1357"}
{"id": "P-BOTNET-TRIGGER", "deposit": null, "date": "2026-08-23", "status": "OPEN — UNSUPPORTED BY PUBLIC SOURCE", "prediction": "The capture registry reaching ~1,000 downloads the night before 2026-06-19 triggered the account block via botnet or abuse detection.", "resolution_condition": "Read the moderation, statistics and file-serving source for any path connecting download volume to enforcement.", "outcome": "NOT CONFIRMED, NOT REFUTED. No path from download or upload volume to enforcement appears in published source: the moderation scorer has zero traffic terms, robot flagging is a COUNTER-robots user-agent lookup for metrics only, file serving disables nginx throttling, and 926 MB is 1.85% of the default 50 GB quota with no deposit endpoint in the rate-limit table. BUT production config, deployed modules, CERN infrastructure monitoring and the unpublished moderation_queries percolator table are all outside what source can reach. An earlier version of this row read DISCONFIRMED; that is withdrawn as an overclaim.", "resolved_by": "zenodo-rdm moderation/rules.py + tasks.py; invenio-stats processors.py; zenodo_rdm/files.py — all preserved at datasets/erasure/mechanism/"}