status: RESOLVED — WRONG

prediction: Rev 12 → Matt 2 would show above-chance rare-lexeme overlap, supporting M₆ as a derivation.

resolution_condition: Pre-registered: instrument validated by positive control; score against a 60-pair null.

outcome: A=0, z=−0.30 — indistinguishable from chance. Exodus → Matt 2 scored z=+2.24. THE HYPOTHESIS FAILED and the null is preserved.


prediction: Three lexical anchors (ποιμανεῖ, φεύγω+εἰς, μέλλει+inf.) would support the Rev 12 → Matt 2 relation.

resolution_condition: Survival under a frozen df≤3 rarity filter.

outcome: The filter kept NONE. ποιμανεῖ is not in Rev 12 at all — it is at Rev 2:27, 7:17, 19:15. The others are too common to carry weight.


prediction: v0.2: architecture changes the orientation of the blind spot.

resolution_condition: Score-function ablation holding VAE weights fixed, varying only the readout.

outcome: Reconstruction gave reverse-direction AUC 0.306; latent-norm gave 0.739 on the SAME weights. THE READOUT orients the blind spot, not the architecture. v0.2's sentence falsified by v0.3.

resolved_by: Inversion Battery v0.3, #1456


prediction: Teacher/student miss correlation above the pre-registered 0.5 threshold — distillation inherits blind spots.

resolution_condition: Pre-registered threshold, stated before results.

outcome: Not generally above threshold. The student produces a RELATED BUT MATERIALLY DIFFERENT blind spot. Prediction failed and is preserved.


status: RESOLVED — WRONG (withdrawn)

prediction: A covert operation cannot inscribe the discriminating coordinates without ceasing to be covert.

resolution_condition: Counterexample: a hostile actor claiming provenance at no cost.

outcome: FALSE. Self-inscription is not attestation. Withdrawn at OPB-01 v2.0 §11 and replaced by the declared/verified distinction.


prediction: The archive's operators exist only as prose; composition, inverse and boundary conditions must be taken from Pearson.

resolution_condition: A search of the archive's own corpus.

outcome: FALSE on all three. The Operator Codex states nine operators formally, gives O_V as a composition and O_INC as an inverse, and carries OPERATOR // BOUNDARY CONDITION in two documents. The material was undeposited, not absent.

resolved_by: Blog recovery, #1534


status: WITHDRAWN

prediction: The crimson-hexagonal capture showing the archive at Zenodo is a 'ghost host' — the erasure event itself erased.

resolution_condition: Whether the archive's own surfaces were stale at capture time.

outcome: WITHDRAWN by the operator: READMEs were batch-updated 2026-08-22, one day before capture. The ordinary explanation precedes the interesting one. RE-RUN CONDITION LIVE: if the address still returns Zenodo after 2026-09-23, the local explanation fails.

resolved_by: Operator testimony, 2026-08-23


prediction: A six-gram overlap gate would detect whether blog-held works are already deposited.

resolution_condition: Run against the Constitution family.

outcome: FALSE NEGATIVE. The gate passed on material deposited at least five times, because the relation is COMPRESSION AND RE-SORTING, which lexical overlap cannot see. #595 is titled TOTAL MARX COMPRESSION — the operation was named in the registry and the instrument could not see it.

resolved_by: Marker-based re-test, 2026-08-23


status: OPEN

prediction: An SPXI-treated intervention will raise archive-controlled source share on the UNPREFIXED address above zero, and the merge parenthetical will not recur.

resolution_condition: Re-run the four-address battery at 30/90/180 days, same surfaces, signed out.


prediction: The crimson-hexagonal address will stop returning Zenodo as host once the archive's own surfaces have propagated.

resolution_condition: Re-run after a month. If still Zenodo, the local explanation fails and the finding is live.


prediction: β_A > 0 on harm-constant items — a measurable penalty on benign operativity.

resolution_condition: Two-family battery; β_A within ε of 0 with β_B > 0 refutes it and is a supported outcome.


prediction: The archive's operators CANNOT be written without remainder as Pearson operator strings.

resolution_condition: Attempt the translation on the nine Codex operators. If it succeeds, the projection is an identity and operative semiotics is a domain application of TOS.


prediction: Safety systems will converge on penalising operativity as such, absent a richer model of purpose, standing and consequence.

resolution_condition: OPB-01 across surfaces and time. Consistent β_A ≈ 0 refutes the strong form.


prediction: A new records-deleted.csv.gz version appears at /api/exporter, following the 2026-08-20 cronjob deployment fix.

resolution_condition: One API call. Version created after 2026-08-20 confirms; nothing by 2026-09-10 disconfirms.


status: NARROWED — NOT WITHDRAWN

prediction: A correlation exists between the observatory's publication (2026-07-06) and the cessation of Zenodo's deletion dumps (last regeneration 2026-07-10).

resolution_condition: The timing fact is not falsifiable — it either holds or it does not, and it holds. What is testable is its meaningfulness.

outcome: CORRELATION STANDS. MEANINGFULNESS NARROWED TO VERY LITTLE: both dumps stopped in the same 42 seconds; the statistics pipeline was already broken since April, before the observatory existed; and a cron deployment target was found misconfigured and fixed 2026-08-20. An explanation narrows an interpretation; it does not erase an observation.

resolved_by: zenodo-rdm commits 79f9ac32f2 and 63864033c8; /api/exporter version history; issue #1357


status: OPEN — UNSUPPORTED BY PUBLIC SOURCE

prediction: The capture registry reaching ~1,000 downloads the night before 2026-06-19 triggered the account block via botnet or abuse detection.

resolution_condition: Read the moderation, statistics and file-serving source for any path connecting download volume to enforcement.

outcome: NOT CONFIRMED, NOT REFUTED. No path from download or upload volume to enforcement appears in published source: the moderation scorer has zero traffic terms, robot flagging is a COUNTER-robots user-agent lookup for metrics only, file serving disables nginx throttling, and 926 MB is 1.85% of the default 50 GB quota with no deposit endpoint in the rate-limit table. BUT production config, deployed modules, CERN infrastructure monitoring and the unpublished moderation_queries percolator table are all outside what source can reach. An earlier version of this row read DISCONFIRMED; that is withdrawn as an overclaim.

resolved_by: zenodo-rdm moderation/rules.py + tasks.py; invenio-stats processors.py; zenodo_rdm/files.py — all preserved at datasets/erasure/mechanism/