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   "locus": "A.6.2 ¶2 s1–2",
   "quote": "Our automated grader, based on GPT-5-high, shows lower correlation with human expert graders when assessing outputs from capable OpenAI models. This aligns with empirical evidence that models often favor their own responses",
   "claim": "the grader, based on GPT-5-high, agrees less with experts on capable OpenAI models' outputs, in line with models favouring their own responses",
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   "locus": "§5, 'Cost'",
   "quote": "Constructing and running our evaluation is expensive, particularly with industry expert graders. For this reason, we make an automated grader proxy available, but do not consider it a full substitute for industry expert graders.",
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   "origin": "own_page",
   "locus": "Figure 5 caption",
   "quote": "On human pairwise comparisons, models are beginning to approach parity with industry experts on the GDPval gold subset.",
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   "source": "B8",
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   "locus": "§3.1 ¶1, last two sentences",
   "quote": "on the GDPval gold subset, 47.6% of deliverables by Claude Opus 4.1 were graded as better than (wins) or as good as (ties) the human deliverable. Model deliverables outperformed or matched expert humans’ deliverables in just over half the tasks.",
   "claim": "47.6% of Claude Opus 4.1's deliverables graded as good as or better than the human's; 'just over half the tasks' in the next sentence",
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   "locus": "Figure 6 caption",
   "quote": "Performance of OpenAI frontier models increased roughly linearly over time on the GDPval gold subset.",
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   "locus": "§3.1 ¶1",
   "quote": "Claude Opus 4.1 was the best performing model on the GDPval gold subset, excelling in particular on aesthetics (e.g., document formatting, slide layout), while GPT-5 excelled in particular on accuracy (e.g., carefully following instructions, performing correct calculations)",
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   "locus": "Figure 8 caption",
   "quote": "Across models, experts most often preferred the human deliverable because models failed to fully follow instructions on GDPval tasks.",
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   "locus": "A.2.6 ¶2 s2",
   "quote": "Another roughly 29% of ratings were for bad or catastrophic (with roughly 3% of failures marked as catastrophic).",
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   "locus": "§3.2 ¶1 s4–5",
   "quote": "Here, an expert human samples from a model, reviews outputs, and if unsatisfactory, resamples and repeats. If no satisfactory output is obtained, the human completes the task themselves.",
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   "locus": "A.2.1 Table 2, row gpt-5, and the sentence after it",
   "quote": "gpt-5 39.0% 90x 1.12x 1.39x 474x 1.18x 1.63x … When incorporating time to review and redo work, the payoff from using a model shrinks.",
   "claim": "GPT-5 at a 39.0% win rate: 90x naive speed, 1.12x tried once, 1.39x tried n times; once review and redo are counted 'the payoff from using a model shrinks'",
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   "quote": "We do not include consideration of the time taken to review a human professional deliverable, although this would commonly occur for tasks in GDPval (either self-review of the professional’s own work or review by a supervisor of a team member’s work). We also do not include the possibility that the human deliverable is also undesirable. One further limitation of this analysis is that it does not capture the cost of catastrophic mistakes, which can be disproportionately expensive in some domains.",
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   "locus": "A.2.1, footnote 9",
   "quote": "We are over-penalizing the model here, because the win rate after each completion likely goes up (because the professional will adjust the prompt to the model to fix the errors) and the review time also goes down as the professional gets more comfortable with the task.",
   "claim": "the try-n-times estimate over-penalizes the model: the professional adjusts the prompt and reviews faster",
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   "quote": "Because times were self-reported, it is possible that experts under-estimated or over-estimated time taken … Because our experts were recruited specifically for being highly experienced in their field, these wage estimates likely underestimate their true market cost.",
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   "locus": "§2.3 s4",
   "quote": "Each task’s dollar value was estimated by multiplying the average estimated completion time by median hourly wages for the corresponding occupation from OEWS data",
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   "locus": "§1, bullet 'Long-horizon difficulty'",
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   "locus": "A.2.5 s2",
   "quote": "Win rates are highest for shorter tasks (0–2 hours) and decline steadily as completion time increases.",
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   "locus": "Abstract s6",
   "quote": "We also demonstrate that increased reasoning effort, increased task context, and increased scaffolding improves model performance on GDPval.",
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   "locus": "§5, 'Dataset size'",
   "quote": "The GDPval full set currently consists of only 44 occupations and 30 total tasks per occupation. It is therefore a limited, initial cut of knowledge work tasks, not a comprehensive evaluation of all possible occupational tasks.",
   "claim": "a limited, initial cut: 44 occupations, 30 tasks each, not a comprehensive evaluation",
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   "locus": "§5, 'Focus on self-contained knowledge work' s2–3",
   "quote": "Manual labor and physical tasks are not included in the current version. Moreover, tasks that involve extensive tacit knowledge, access to personally identifiable information, use of proprietary software tools, or communication between individuals are out of scope for the current evaluation.",
   "claim": "out of scope: manual and physical labor, tacit knowledge, personal data, proprietary tools, communication between people",
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   "source": "B8",
   "origin": "own_page",
   "locus": "§5, 'Tasks are precisely-specified and one-shot, not interactive' (heading and s1)",
   "quote": "Tasks are precisely-specified and one-shot, not interactive: … For GDPval, we provide the full context of the task in the prompt, but in real life it often takes effort to figure out the full context of a task and understand what to work on.",
   "claim": "tasks precisely specified and one-shot, full context given in the prompt, where real work must find its context",
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   "locus": "A.2.7 ¶2 s2; ¶3",
   "quote": "We collected and graded GPT-5 completions with expert human graders and found the model’s performance was worse on under-specified prompts. … As a note: this experiment was run on an earlier version of the GDPval gold subset, and therefore the observed win rates do not match those in the main text of the paper.",
   "claim": "on under-specified prompts GPT-5 did worse; the experiment ran on an earlier gold subset",
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   "origin": "own_page",
   "locus": "§4 s1 and s3",
   "quote": "We open-source the prompts and reference files in our 220-task gold subset. … Please note that the tasks in the open sourced set have been scrubbed of information that could be used to identify the expert who wrote the task.",
   "claim": "the gold subset's prompts and reference files open-sourced, scrubbed of what could identify the expert who wrote each task",
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   "locus": "A.6.3 s1",
   "quote": "In the open-source set we mark 12 out of 220 tasks as ungradable due to limitations of the automated grader.",
   "claim": "12 of the 220 open tasks marked ungradable by the automated grader",
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   "source": "B8",
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   "locus": "§1, bullet 'No “upper limit”' s2",
   "quote": "Currently, we compare model outputs against a human expert baseline, but we could replace our baseline with increasingly strong models over time and keep evaluating.",
   "claim": "the human expert baseline could be replaced by increasingly strong models",
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   "const": false,
   "lineage": "win rate as metric: the human baseline replaceable",
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   "locus": "§6, last sentence",
   "quote": "We hope this work contributes to the science of tracking model progress, so that we have better data to assess the social impacts of AI models.",
   "claim": "its stated aim: tracking model progress, for better data on AI's social impacts",
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   "const": false,
   "lineage": "positioning: capability measured ahead of adoption",
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   "locus": "§1 ¶4 s6; §5 'Dataset size' s3",
   "quote": "Future GDPval iterations will incorporate greater breadth, realism, interactivity, and contextual nuance. … We are expanding the dataset size.",
   "claim": "future iterations to add breadth, realism, interactivity and context; the dataset being expanded",
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   "lineage": "versions and lifecycle",
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   "locus": "header",
   "quote": "License: CC BY 4.0 … arXiv:2510.04374v1 [cs.LG] 05 Oct 2025",
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 }
}