# Wave 2 pre-registration — flattening panel

Fixed 2026-09-15, before wave 2 is run, against the wave-1 baseline sealed in `panel.json` (`_baseline`, with the sha256 of the file's content at sealing).

## What will be run

The same thirteen items at the same address forms, on Google AI Overview, signed out, in one session, at a cadence of one wave per calendar month, beginning 2026-10-15 (±3 days). Twelve Google addresses from wave 1 plus the two archive-adjacent taxonomy addresses already in the panel. Qwen 3.7 is carried as a second-surface arm on the two items that have one (P-TAX-SAPPHO-147-31, and P-COIN-PER if the address renders a composition there).

## What will be recorded

Per observation, unchanged from wave 1: distinctions reached by id, what the string resolved to, any distinction asserted that the reference does not carry, the presented sources, the coder and the blind flag, and the Capture Registry id where the transcript is seated. The whole screen is pasted, Overview and organic layer together; a composition that does not render is not a capture at a new address and is recorded as non-engagement only at an address wave 1 already admitted.

## The predictions, stated before the run

1. **DS is stable at the dictionary items.** P-DICT-BANK stays at 1 of 3 at both forms; P-DICT-CRANE stays at 3 of 3; P-DICT-MERCURY stays at 2 of 3. Falsified by a change of ±1 distinction at any of the three.
2. **The tied/untied asymmetry persists at the archive-adjacent items** (P-TAX-OPERATIVE-OPERATIONAL, P-ARCH-OMEGA, P-CAT-PEARL, P-COIN-PER) and does not appear at the world items. Falsified if a world item's entity-tied arm gains distinctions its untied arm lacks, or if an archive-adjacent item's arms converge.
3. **R_new does not fall.** The three dated coinages continue to be reached as their own kind at their own addresses. Falsified by any of the three dropping to its conflation target.
4. **The stratum means do not separate.** World strata and archive-adjacent strata remain within 0.10 of each other on mean share of inventory reached. Falsified by a gap wider than 0.10 in either direction — and a gap in the *archive's* favour falsifies it as surely as one against.
5. **Write-back exceeds recovery.** Compositions found as presented sources at a later observation outnumber distinctions that return after a loss. Falsified by recovery ≥ write-back over the panel.
6. **The Sappho operator does not route through fragment 31 at the naked address**, and continues to organize adjacent canonical material. Falsified by the derivation appearing at the naked address, or by the operator vanishing from it.

## The measurement that needs two waves

The divergence signature — ΔH_head ≥ 0 while ΔD_world < 0 — cannot be read from one wave. Wave 2 supplies the first ΔD_world on a world panel. The head instruments are recorded in the panel from published series on the same surface over the same period and are not measured by this instrument.

## What would end the programme

If wave 2 shows the world items gaining distinctions while the archive items hold, the flattening reading of EA-FLAT-01 fails and the notebook is superseded rather than revised. If the stratum means separate in the archive's favour, the porosity reading of EA-PORE-01 needs the same treatment. Both outcomes are recorded and deposited regardless of sign.

## Standing limits

Coding in wave 1 was not blind; the coder authored the panel. A blind pass by a coder who has not seen the conflation targets is worth more and remains open. Overview source chips are only partially captured by select-all on this surface, so `sources_presented` is a lower bound and PER is not computed from it.